Summary of domestic cis-polybutadiene rubber market this week;
The market price of cis-polybutadiene rubber fell this week. As of this Thursday, the reference price of BR9000 in North China was14,650 yuan/ton, down by 7.28% from last week. The average price of BR9000 in North China this week is 15080 yuan/ton, which is 8 10 yuan/ton lower than that of last week and 30.96% higher than that of the same period last year. There was no obvious change in the fundamentals during the week, but with the continuous weakening of butadiene, Hujiao continued to decline, and the trend of related products was weak, which dragged down the willingness of end users to replenish polybutadiene rubber. In the middle of the week, mainstream sales companies lowered the ex-factory price of BR9000 by 400 yuan/ton. However, the price reduction policy did not stimulate the purchase sentiment to improve, but aggravated its mentality of "not buying or not falling". A small number of negotiations in the venue still tend to be upside down with the new price, and the market as a whole is weak.
Market prospect analysis of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber;
The domestic market price of cis-polybutadiene rubber may continue to decline next week. It is estimated that the price range of BR9000 in North China will be 14200- 14700 yuan/ton next week, and the average value may be 400-500 yuan/ton lower than this week's average value.
Cost: The spot supply of butadiene will still be abundant next week, but the demand will not change much. It is expected that the domestic butadiene market will continue to be weak next week due to weak fundamentals. The price range of butadiene is wide, and the cost end is negative.
Related product natural rubber: In the short term, although the price of natural rubber is weak due to the lack of strong driving force, under the support of medium and long-term supply-side logic, there is limited room for price downside. It is expected that the main contract price of Hujiao will run in the range of 14000- 15000 yuan/ton next week. Related products are difficult to support the cis-butyl market.
Supply: Next week, the Yangzi and Witt Shunding devices will continue to stop working, and the rest devices are planned to run smoothly without obvious changes. According to the comprehensive calculation of Zhuo Chuang Information, it is estimated that the average starting load of domestic Gaoshun Shunding Plant will be around 73% next week, which is about 1 percentage point higher than this week. It is expected that the supply of cis-polybutadiene rubber will grow slowly in the future.
Demand: For tire manufacturers, under the uncertainty of continuous production in the later period, the short-term performance of tire enterprises is acceptable, but due to poor shipment, the inventory of tire enterprises will continue to rise. Downstream may still continue the pace of on-demand shopping, and the fluctuation of demand side is limited.