Since 20 15, classified funds, fixed income funds, capital preservation funds, outsourcing customized funds and money funds have all been affected by supervision to a certain extent.
At the same time, the scale of Public Offering of Fund has also increased from the initial tens of billions to more than 1 1 trillion. As Dario's new book Principles says, "Only evolution is the only constant".
So for fund companies, how to lay out the fund product line in 20 18?
First, the evolution of investors.
If you ask individual investors what is the goal of buying funds?
That's definitely making money, and it's making money steadily.
However, after the education of the market and the deception of swindlers, investors feel that their goals are a bit unrealistic, and gradually recognize the value of long-term investment of funds, and their understanding of asset allocation has begun to take root in the hearts of the people.
On the other hand, the proportion of institutional investors in the market has also increased year by year.
Institutional investors prefer excellent funds and instrumental products. With the specialization of institutional investment, it is expected that there will be more and more demand for instrumented products.
If you ask what is the biggest demand of investment funds, it must be the demand for old-age care. The development of American mutual funds in recent decades has also proved this point.
By the end of 20 16, 89% of the holders of * * * mutual funds in the United States were individual investors, and these individual investors bought * * * mutual funds through pension accounts (40 1K/IRA accounts).
Individual investment in old-age care is not determined by the national system, but by the population structure. If three young people raise an old man, how to plan is no problem, but if a young man raises an old man, how to plan becomes a problem.
With the aging of China's population structure, it is an inevitable trend for individuals to invest in providing for the aged, which requires long-term investment. The best return on long-term investment is stock assets, and the best way to invest in stock assets is Public Offering of Fund.
The first two conclusions are clear. Can China establish a buyer's investment system similar to the American market in the future? This question is difficult to answer.
The so-called buyer's investment refers to collecting consulting fees directly from investors, rather than obtaining sales commissions from products. Whoever gives money will work hard for him and put interests first, which is also applicable in the investment market.
Assuming that the buyer's investment system is completed and the interests of the buyer and the investor are consistent, the degree of specialization of the buyer's investors is significantly improved, and correspondingly, the demand for low-cost funds represented by index funds has surged.
Second, the demand for asset allocation.
After 20 15 lightning fell, 20 16 was the first year of asset allocation, and then 20 17 saw the emergence of public offering FOF.
Like the development law of all things, the initial state is not perfect.
On the other hand, the scale of partial stock funds remained basically unchanged from 2007 to 20 17, mainly due to the diversion brought by the rise of private equity funds.
Public Offering of Fund and private equity funds performed better, which is estimated to be similar. However, the sales cost of private placement is higher, so the sales channel is more inclined to private placement funds.
From the perspective of asset allocation, what kind of product is a good product?
As shown in the above figure, if a new product is added to the asset allocation of the original product and the effective frontier is effectively improved, this new product is a good product.
Can frequent issuance of new partial stock funds increase the scale of stock funds?
We have tried for ten years (2007-20 17) to prove that issuing new products frequently can not increase the overall scale of partial stock funds, but can change the stock scale between different fund companies.
As an asset allocation investor, I need more products:
Funds with excellent long-term performance: this is just an extravagant hope. With a good history, will the future be excellent?
QDII funds that invest overseas: European stock ETFs (France, Italy, etc. ), Asia Pacific stock ETF (Malaysia, Vietnam, etc. ), low-cost Reits funds, low-cost crude oil funds, low-cost commodity futures funds, etc. , but there is no QDII quota.
Target date fund: Many companies have begun to lay out accounts. The problem is that the rise of overseas 40 1K/IRA accounts is based on the tax reduction policy. At present, there is no capital gains tax in China, so can long-term investment funds reduce personal income tax?
In view of the current financial situation of the country, it is very difficult and difficult in the short term. Aren't you trying to get to the heart of finance?
FOF asset allocation: Limited by the maximum leverage of 65,438+0.40% of domestic Public Offering of Fund bonds, the overseas risk balance strategy has become a CPPI strategy in China, which is more of a gimmick to fool customers.
Or another supplementary policy, bonds with risk balance strategy can be leveraged four times, which is basically impossible under the background of deleveraging!
Leveraged ETF Fund: The game of graded fund is almost over, and leveraged ETF is needed. Don't make trouble for the supervision, okay?
Let's continue to think other ways, not limited and bold.
The leader said, you continue to think ... whether we continue ... product innovation is periodic. 2007-20 15 was the golden eight years of financial product innovation, and it entered the strict supervision period after 20 15. No one knows how long it lasted.
However, it is estimated that after four or five years, it will be another round of product innovation cycle, which will inevitably bring new security risks, followed by the financial crisis. ...
This cycle is a cyclical trend of financial product innovation, and no one can change it. ...
Third, the choice of fund companies.
At present, there are more than 100 publicly issued funds. Some people say that the probability of death beyond 30 is 99%. Of course, it does not rule out the reappearance of the Tian Hong model, such as Tencent's shareholding in a small fund company.
As of 20 17, BlackRock, the largest asset management company in the world, managed 6 trillion US dollars, and CR Vanguard, the second largest asset management company, managed nearly 4 trillion US dollars, totaling about 10 trillion US dollars, or about 65 trillion RMB. At present, the whole scale of public offering is only 1 1 trillion. From this perspective,
From another angle, we will find that the mutual fund market in the United States is highly concentrated, and it is estimated that the top ten asset management companies account for more than 90% of the whole industry.
Moreover, the industry leaders are mainly index funds. Compared with active funds, index funds are more homogeneous, and only the larger the scale and the lower the cost will they have a competitive advantage.
It has been proved in both American market and China market that there is only one way to obtain excess returns for a long time. If the fund operating costs (management fees, custody fees, trading commissions) are reduced, it will be earned. According to the statistics of BlackRock and Pilot Group, they can only save investors $654.38+000 billion each year.
Asset management companies or fund companies are intelligence-intensive enterprises, not human-intensive enterprises. The same investment team does not need more manpower because of the growth of management scale. Only new products need more excellent talents.
In the future, fund companies can only choose two ways: large-scale comprehensive asset management giants (index funds, active management) and small and fine specialty product providers (specialty investment, leveraged ETF and other specialty products).
"Only evolution is the only constant", what we can do is to change, not wait.
I hate people who say "compliance creates value". What a century-old shop depends on compliance, but we must also see the trend clearly. Respect compliance for the time being.
Author Zheng Zhiyong
Source, alloy and wisdom
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