Supply situation
-The production capacity will be further expanded.
2011-In 2020, the asphalt production capacity of China will continue to expand. In 2020, as the closing year of the 13th Five-Year Plan, the annual production benefit of 202 1 asphalt is more related to gasoline and diesel, which will drive some refineries to put into production or expand their production capacity. In 2020, the national asphalt production capacity will greatly expand, exceeding 50 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of11300,000 tons, with a growth rate of 23.69%.
In 20021year, domestic asphalt manufacturers plan to increase production capacity by about 4.8 million tons, with an estimated growth rate of about 8 14% and a production capacity of over 60 million tons.
-some manufacturers' capacity plans will be decided according to profits.
Yi Kai Petrochemical, Xinzhou New Materials, Dongfang Hualong and Qiwangda all have plans to increase production capacity. Yi Kai Petrochemical Company has an atmospheric and vacuum distillation plan of 3 million tons/year, and the asphalt production capacity is 65,438+800,000 tons/year. It is expected to be put into production in March 20265, 438+0. The specific new capacity plans of Dongfang Hualong and Qiwangda will be determined according to the profit of asphalt production. There is also a corresponding plan for the second phase of Xinzhou New Materials, with the atmospheric and vacuum distillation capacity of 654.38+00,000 tons/year, but the project time has not yet been determined.
——202 1 The output is expected to be higher than 20 19.
During the period of 20 16-2020, except for a slight decrease in 20 18, the asphalt production in China showed an increasing trend in other years. In 2020, the asphalt output in China will be 32,423,900 tons, up by 155438+0% year-on-year.
202 1 With the recovery of gasoline and diesel prices, it is predicted that the overall operating rate of refinery asphalt will be lower in 2020 than in 2020. Based on the comprehensive capacity factors, it is estimated that the national asphalt production in 20021year will be slightly higher than that in 20 19, but lower than that in 2020, reaching 30.26 million tons.
Demand condition
-Market demand will keep growing.
In terms of sales amount, the asphalt market scale has increased from 92 1 billion yuan in 20 15 to148 billion yuan in 20 19, with a compound annual growth rate of 12.6%. Driven by the rising demand of asphalt downstream industries (especially highway construction and maintenance) and the surge of investment in infrastructure construction, it is expected that the demand of asphalt market in China will keep growing.
Price situation
-Asphalt prices are supported by oil prices or will rise further.
In terms of price trend, in 2020, the global epidemic broke out, most countries stopped production, economic activities were affected, the demand for laying highways, municipal roads, bridges and airports decreased, and asphalt was in short supply. At the same time, the "price war" in the oil market led to a sharp drop in crude oil and even went to extremes, which obviously hit the price trend of asphalt products. Therefore, in the first half of 2020, asphalt as a whole showed a sharp decline. However, as the global crude oil price bottomed out in May 2020, the asphalt price gradually picked up. As of 202165438+1October 28th, the price of asphalt 70# was 2535 yuan/ton.
It is predicted that in 20021year, with OPEC+production reduction and the gradual recovery of crude oil demand, the global crude oil market is expected to continue to take positions. Therefore, both macro logic and crude oil supply and demand logic support the upward trend of oil prices, but the uncertainty of epidemic situation and the deviation between the effect and expectation after large-scale use of vaccines are still the main risk points, which may inhibit the upward trend of oil prices. However, on the whole, the overall operation center of 202 1 oil price is expected to move up further, which will promote the elevation of the operation center of asphalt price.
Note: The asphalt price in the above figure shows the price of asphalt (70#), so this paper analyzes the price of asphalt products in China with the help of this product price.
-For more research and analysis of this industry, please refer to the Analysis Report on Market Demand Forecast and Investment Strategic Planning of China Asphalt Industry by Prospective Industry Research Institute.