Hedging is the most common in the foreign exchange market, aiming at avoiding the risk of one-way trading. The so-called single-line trading means buying short positions (or short positions) when you are optimistic about a certain currency, and selling short positions (short positions) when you are bearish on a certain currency. If the judgment is correct, the profit will naturally be more; But if the judgment is wrong, the loss will be greater than hedging.
The so-called hedging is to buy a foreign currency at the same time and short it. Besides, we should also sell another currency, that is, short selling. In theory, shorting a currency and shorting a currency should be the same as the silver code, which is the real hedging, otherwise the hedging function cannot be realized if the two sides are different in size.
This is because the world foreign exchange market is based on US dollars. All foreign currencies rise and fall with the US dollar as the relative exchange rate. A strong dollar means a weak foreign currency; If the foreign currency is strong, the dollar will be weak. The rise and fall of the dollar affects the rise and fall of all foreign currencies. Therefore, if you are optimistic about a currency, but want to reduce the risk, you need to sell a bearish currency at the same time. Buy strong currency and sell weak currency. If the estimate is correct, the dollar will weaken and the strong currency bought will rise. Even if the estimate is wrong and the dollar is strong, the currency bought will not fall too much. The weak currency sold has fallen sharply, with less losses and more gains, and it can still be profitable on the whole.
An example of hedging
the nineties
1990 At the beginning of the year, the Iraq war in the Middle East ended.
The United States became the victorious country, and the price of the dollar rose steadily and strongly, rising against all foreign currencies. At that time, only the Japanese yen was still a strong currency. At that time, shortly after the fall of the Berlin Wall, Germany had just been unified, and the economic differences in East Germany dragged down Germany, and the economy had hidden worries. The political situation in the Soviet Union was unstable, and Gorbachev's position was shaken. At that time, the British economy was also very poor, and interest rates were cut constantly. The Conservative Party was challenged by the Labour Party, so the pound was also weak. After the war, the attraction of Swiss franc as a war refuge declined and it became a weak currency.
1997 during the Asian financial turmoil, Soros's quantum fund sold a lot of Thai baht and bought other currencies. Thailand's stock market fell, and the Thai government could no longer maintain the linked exchange rate, resulting in heavy economic losses. And the fund is very profitable. In addition to Thailand, Hong Kong and other countries and regions that maintain currency prices with the linked exchange rate are challenged by hedge funds. The Hong Kong government raised interest rates sharply, reaching 300% in overnight rate, and even used HK$ 654.38+020 billion in foreign exchange reserves to buy a large number of Hong Kong stocks. Finally repel speculators.
Hedging in other markets
The principle of hedging is not limited to the foreign exchange market, but is more commonly used in the foreign exchange market in terms of investment. This principle also applies to the gold market, futures and futures markets.
[Edit this paragraph] Hedging transactions in the futures market
There are roughly four kinds of hedging transactions in the futures market.
One is the hedging transaction between futures and spot, that is, trading in the futures market and spot market with the same number and opposite directions at the same time. This is the most basic form of futures hedging transaction, which is obviously different from other hedging transactions. First of all, this hedging transaction is not only conducted in the futures market, but also in the spot market, while other hedging transactions are futures transactions. Secondly, this kind of hedging transaction is mainly to avoid the risks brought by price changes in the spot market and give up the possible benefits brought by price changes, which is generally called hedging. The purpose of several other hedging transactions is to carry out speculative arbitrage from price changes, which is usually called profit hedging. Of course, the hedging between futures and spot is not limited to hedging, and it is also possible to hedge when the price difference between futures and spot is too large or too small. Just because this hedging transaction needs spot trading, the cost is higher than that of simply doing futures, and some conditions are needed to do spot trading, so it is generally used for hedging.
The second is the hedging transaction of the same futures product in different delivery months. Because the price changes with time, the spread of the same futures product in different delivery months forms a spread, and this spread also changes. Excluding the relatively fixed commodity storage cost, the price difference depends on the change of supply and demand. By buying futures varieties for delivery in one month and selling futures varieties for delivery in another month, you can close your position or deliver at a certain time. Due to the change of price difference, two transactions in opposite directions may generate income after breakeven. This kind of hedging transaction is called intertemporal arbitrage for short.
Third, hedging transactions of the same futures product in different futures markets. Due to different geographical and institutional environments, the price of the same futures product in different markets at the same time is likely to be different and constantly changing. In this way, you can buy long positions in one market and sell short positions in another market at the same time, and then close positions or deliver at the same time after a period of time, thus completing hedging transactions in different markets. This kind of hedging transaction is called cross-market arbitrage.
Fourth, hedging transactions of different futures varieties. The premise of this hedging transaction is that there is some correlation between different futures products, for example, the two commodities are upstream and downstream products, or they can replace each other. Although the varieties are different, they reflect the identity of market supply and demand.