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Why does the fall of gold price affect the fall of copper price?
Gold is a precious metal and copper is a commodity, both of which are risky assets. Risk assets will be influenced by the monetary policies of major countries. Expansive monetary policy will increase investors' risk preference and push up the price of risky assets, while tight monetary policy will reduce investors' risk preference and turn to those recognized "safe havens"-safe assets. As a commodity and strategic material, copper price is mainly affected by the strong demand of BRIC countries and the potential threat of war in the world. Countries are busy issuing bonds to stimulate the economy, and the war is temporarily away. Whether the BRIC economies recover steadily has the greatest impact on copper prices. Interpolation: In the list of safe-haven assets, it used to be mainly USD and JPY. Japan's strong current account surplus, low domestic interest rate and Japanese government bonds mainly held by its own people have made the yen a safe-haven asset. However, in 20 12, Japan's current account began to show a deficit. After that, ambitious Abe vowed to change Japan's deflation for 20 consecutive years and devalue the yen. In addition, the aging of Japan and the high debt ratio of the Japanese government are gradually recognized by investors. The yen was madly shorted in the foreign exchange market and lost its status as a safe-haven asset. Today's safe-haven assets are only dollars, or US Treasury bonds. I am asking another question: Is the sharp drop in the price of gold due to the market expectation that Cyprus will sell its gold reserves? At present, the market is worried about three issues. First, where will the next blockbuster of the European debt crisis break out? Could it be Spain? Even France? Second, when did the Japanese debt crisis break out? Third, and most importantly, when did the Fed start to reduce its bond purchase program (QE4)? When will the bond purchase plan end? The world is generally full of economic quagmire after the outbreak of the financial crisis, and all countries have signs of recession and no employment recovery. This is a world worse than anyone else, and the crisis broke out relatively late. This is the speed of life and death of euro, yen, RMB and dollar. Whoever dies first, other currencies will have the last laugh. The euro zone is in trouble and the Japanese future is bleak. China only knows that investing heavily in the government is an ominous sign. Therefore, the market is generally optimistic about the dollar, the US real estate market is bullish, and the dollar returns; I am worried that the Fed will stop QE4 and the dollar will return to the market. Now it is a bearish commodity and a bullish dollar. Even after the Boston bombings, the dollar remained strong. The strength of the dollar is a nightmare for commodities. Gold plunged for two consecutive trading days, from last Friday to this Tuesday, from 1550 to the lowest point 1326, by more than $200, reflecting the foreign exchange market's concern about commodities. The asset bubble blown out by QE3 is expected to burst one day. Personally, I think the inflation of the US dollar index can be expected in the future. With the foreign exchange market generally questioning the quality of China's economic recovery, it is difficult for commodities to get out of the big bull market, and the rise is also a callback after the plunge.