Attribute of investment goods
Comparison with other investment varieties
Generally speaking, personal investment mainly includes real estate, savings, securities and precious metals. The advantages and disadvantages of these investment methods are as follows: ◆ Real estate (value change) generally does not change much, depending on the investment environment (liquidity/marketability), but it depends on the location to determine the price and needs to wait for the opportunity to sell at a high price. Possible meager profit and loss (profitability) are determined by the change of investment environment and differential rent (maintenance cost), including property management and maintenance cost. Transaction tax ◆ Savings (change in value) is greatly affected by inflation (liquidity/marketability) and cash equivalent (profitability) interest, and cash equivalent is greatly affected by inflation. High inflation, high nominal interest, low inflation and low nominal interest (maintenance cost). Many countries levy savings tax ◆ Securities (changes in value) are easy to change, and there are many kinds, mainly bonds and stocks. Its value is greatly influenced by political, macroeconomic and monetary policies (liquidity/marketability). The profit of high (profitable) bonds is relatively stable, while the profit of stocks fluctuates greatly (maintenance cost). There will be certain transaction costs when buying and selling, such as taxes and fees. ◆ The value (change in value) of gold is small (liquidity/marketability) and high (profitability). Buying and selling is really low, but the risk is low. Fried paper gold (standard contract) is relatively profitable, but there are risks (maintenance costs). The maintenance cost of real gold is high, and the maintenance cost of paper gold such as standard contract is low. In addition to the above comparison, investors can also compare and analyze gold with other investment objects, such as silver, antiques, jewelry, watches, etc., from which some useful enlightenment can be obtained. It can be seen that gold has the advantages of stable value and high liquidity, and is an effective means to deal with inflation. If you have some basic knowledge and professional analysis ability on the futures market and gold price changes, you can also participate in gold futures investment to make a profit. Generally speaking, no matter how the price of gold changes, it has certain value preservation and strong liquidity because of its high intrinsic value. In the long run, it has anti-inflation function; In the long run, real estate has great practicability, and if the purchase timing, price and area are reasonable, it also has appreciation potential; Saving is the most convenient for all kinds of immediate needs; Stock profitability and risk. The advantages and functions of these investments should be determined according to various purposes, financial resources and investment knowledge.
gold reserve
Because gold has the characteristics of great difficulty in mining, high mining cost and good physical properties, in the long-term social and historical development, gold is not only used as an ornament by human beings, but also endowed with the function of monetary value. It was not until 1970s that gold was separated from direct functions of money, that is, gold was not monetized. However, as a precious metal, gold is still the main international reserve in the world. According to the gold reserves published in March, 2008, the countries and international institutions that rank the top 10 in the world are: the United States (8 133.5 tons), Germany (34 17.4 tons) and the International Monetary Fund (3217. Chinese mainland (1054.0 tons), Japan (756.2 tons), Netherlands (62 1.4 tons), European Central Bank (563.6 tons). All countries with large reserves have had wars of aggression. Before the Opium War, China's gold reserves ranked first in the world, but the war made gold scattered everywhere.
Currency role
Before 1 and 1960, gold had a history of more than 3000 years. After a long period of time, the gold standard was gradually established and became the basis of the British monetary system in 17 17. By the end of19th century, European countries had widely implemented the gold standard. The United States implemented the gold standard in 1900. Internationally, gold is freely imported and exported to settle the balance of payments; Gold flows from deficit countries to surplus countries. After the outbreak of World War I, Britain officially stopped adopting the gold standard system on 19 19, but resumed using the BRICS standard system on 1926; Under this system, paper money can only be exchanged for 400 ounces of internationally recognized gold bars. In the early 1960s, the world economy was in a turbulent period, forcing most countries to abandon the system of exchanging gold for money? ] UK 193 1, USA 1933), only central banks and governments are allowed to carry out gold barter activities. In this case, the dollar exchange system is formed, so that dollars can be exchanged for gold at the Federal Reserve. The international community signed the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1944, and confirmed this system, which has been implemented until 197 1. 1934, US President Ross raised the official price of gold bought and sold by the Federal Reserve to $35 per ounce. The Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank have been trying to maintain this exchange price until 1968. 2. During the period of1960, due to the increasing demand for gold for jewelry making and free market investment, the United States established the main gold bank in conjunction with Britain, Belgium, France, Italy, the Netherlands, West Germany and Switzerland, hoping to keep the market price of gold close to the official price of $35 per ounce. This new institution is actually an expansion of the external stabilization fund, enabling the Ministry of Finance to increase the supply of gold when necessary to suppress the price of gold in the free market.
Price change factor
Before the 1970s, the price of gold was basically determined by governments or central banks of various countries, and the international price of gold was relatively stable. In the early 1970s, the price of gold was no longer directly linked to the US dollar, and it gradually became market-oriented. Specifically, it can be divided into the following aspects: 65,438+0, supply factor (65,438+0) Gold stock on the earth: At present, there are about 65,438+037,400 tons of gold in the world, and the gold stock on the ground is still growing at a rate of about 2% every year. (2) Annual supply and demand: The annual supply and demand of gold is about 4,200 tons, and the newly produced gold accounts for 62% of the annual supply. (3) New gold mining cost: The average total gold mining cost is slightly lower than $260/oz. Due to the development of mining technology, the cost of gold development has been declining in the past 20 years. (4) Political, military and economic changes in gold-producing countries: Any political and military turmoil in these countries will undoubtedly directly affect the country's gold production, and then affect the world's gold supply. (5) The central bank sells gold: The central bank is the largest gold holder in the world. 1969 The official gold reserve was 36,458 tons, accounting for 42.6% of the total surface gold stock at that time. By 1998, the official gold reserve is about 34,000 tons, accounting for 24. 1% of the total mined gold stock. According to the current production capacity, this is equivalent to the world gold mineral output 13. Because the main use of gold has gradually changed from an important reserve asset to a metal raw material for jewelry production, either to improve the balance of payments or to curb the international gold price, the central bank's gold reserves have declined greatly in absolute and relative quantities in the past 30 years, and the decline in quantity mainly depends on the sale of gold reserves in the gold market. For example, the large-scale selling by the Bank of England, the Swiss National Bank and the International Monetary Fund to reduce gold reserves has become the main reason for the recent decline in gold prices in the international gold market. 2. Demand factor (1) Changes in the actual demand for gold (jewelry industry, industry, etc.). Generally speaking, the development speed of the world economy determines the total demand for gold. For example, in the field of microelectronics, gold is increasingly used as a protective layer; In the fields of medicine, building decoration and so on, although the progress of science and technology makes gold substitutes appear constantly, the demand for gold is still on the rise because of its special metal properties. In some areas, local factors have a great influence on the demand for gold. For example, due to the financial crisis, India and Southeast Asian countries, which have always had a great demand for gold jewelry, have greatly reduced their gold imports since 1997. According to the data of the World Gold Council, the demand for gold in Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia and South Korea decreased by 7 1%, 28%, 10% and 9% respectively. According to statistics, the per capita consumption of gold in China is only 0.2g now, which is far from the largest gold consuming country in the world. At present, the per capita consumption of gold in India is 0.85g, which is more than four times that of China. Judging from China's economic development and per capita income, China is much higher than Indian. Therefore, China's gold consumption potential is huge, and the prospect is very considerable. (2) the need to preserve value. Gold reserves have always been regarded by the central bank as an important means to prevent domestic inflation and regulate the market. For ordinary investors, investing in gold is mainly for the purpose of preserving value under inflation. During the economic downturn, because gold is safer than monetary assets, the demand for gold increases and the price of gold rises. For example, in the three dollar crises after World War II, due to the serious balance of payments deficit in the United States, the dollar held by various countries increased greatly, the market's confidence in the value of the dollar was shaken, and investors snapped up gold in large quantities, which directly led to the bankruptcy of the Bretton Woods system. The depreciation of 1987 dollars, the increase of the deficit in the United States and the instability in the Middle East also contributed to the sharp rise in international gold prices. (3) Speculative demand. According to the international and domestic situation, speculators use the fluctuation of gold price in the gold market and the trading system in the gold futures market to "short" or "replenish" gold in large quantities, artificially creating the illusion of gold demand. In the gold market, almost every plunge is related to hedge fund companies borrowing short-term gold to sell in the spot gold market and establishing a large number of short positions on the COMEX gold futures exchange. When the price of gold fell to a 20-year low of 1999 in July, the data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) showed that COMEX's speculative short position was close to 9 million ounces (nearly 300 tons). When a large number of stop-loss selling was triggered, the price of gold fell, and the fund company took the opportunity to make up the position and make a profit. When the gold price rebounded slightly, the hedging forward selling from manufacturers suppressed the further rise of the gold price, and at the same time gave the fund company a new opportunity to re-establish short positions, forming a downward pattern of the gold price at that time. AG, a gold and silver research and development center in Gaosaier, said: "At present, the price trend of the gold market is not simply determined by market supply and demand, nor is it simply played by central banks. Among them, speculative factors also account for a large proportion in the price. " 3. Other factors (l) The impact of the US dollar exchange rate. The exchange rate of US dollar is also one of the important factors that affect the fluctuation of gold price. Generally speaking, in the gold market, there is a rule that the dollar rises and the price of gold falls, while the dollar falls and the price of gold rises. A strong dollar generally means that the domestic economic situation in the United States is good, domestic stocks and bonds in the United States will be sought after by investors, and the function of gold as a means of value storage will be weakened; The decline in the exchange rate of the US dollar is often related to inflation and the stock market downturn, and the value-preserving function of gold is once again reflected. This is because the depreciation of the dollar is often related to inflation, and the high value of gold will often stimulate the preservation of gold and the increase of speculative demand in the case of the depreciation of the dollar and the intensification of inflation. In August of 197 1 and February of 1973, the US government announced the depreciation of the US dollar twice. Influenced by the sharp drop in the exchange rate of the US dollar and inflation, the price of gold rose to the highest level in history at the beginning of 1980, exceeding $800 per ounce. Looking back on the history of the past 20 years, if the dollar strengthens against other western currencies, the price of gold in the international market will fall. If the dollar depreciates slightly, the price of gold will rise gradually. (2) The monetary policies of various countries are closely related to the international gold price. When a country adopts a loose monetary policy, due to the reduction of interest rates, the country's money supply increases, which increases the possibility of inflation and will lead to an increase in the price of gold. For example, the low interest rate policy in the United States in the 1960 s prompted domestic capital outflows, and a large number of dollars flowed into Europe and Japan. With the increase of net dollar positions held by countries, gold ornaments appeared.
Worried about the value of the dollar, it began to sell dollars in the international market and snap up gold, which eventually led to the collapse of the Bretton Woods system. However, after 1979, the influence of interest rate factors on gold price is weakening day by day. For example, in 2005, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates 1 1 times, but it did not have a great impact on the gold market. Only in the "9. 1 1" incident did the gold market benefit. (3) The influence of inflation on the price of gold. In this regard, long-term and short-term analysis is needed, and it depends on the degree of inflation in the short term. In the long run, if the annual inflation rate changes within the normal range, it will have little impact on the fluctuation of gold prices; Only in a short period of time, the price rises sharply, causing people to panic, and the purchasing power of monetary units declines, will the price of gold rise sharply. Although the world has entered the era of low inflation since 1990s, the use of gold as a symbol of currency stability is shrinking. Moreover, as a long-term investment tool, gold has a lower yield than bonds, stocks and other securities. But in the long run, gold is still an important means to deal with inflation. (4) The influence of international trade, finance and foreign debt deficit on gold price. Debt is a worldwide problem, not just a unique phenomenon in developing countries. In the debt chain, if debtor countries cannot repay their debts, it will lead to economic stagnation, which will further worsen the vicious circle of debt, and even creditor countries will face the danger of financial collapse because of the breakdown of relations with debtor countries. At this time, in order to maintain their own economy from harm, countries will reserve a large amount of gold, which has caused the price of gold to rise in the market. (5) International political turmoil, wars and terrorist incidents. Major international political and war events will affect the price of gold. The government pays for the war or in order to maintain domestic economic stability, a large number of investors turn to gold to invest, which will expand the demand for gold and stimulate the price of gold to rise. For example, World War II, the Vietnam War, 1976 coup in Thailand, and 1986 "Iran Gate" incident all caused the price of gold to rise to varying degrees. For example, the terrorist attacks on the World Trade Center in September 1 1, 200 1, caused the price of gold to soar to the highest in that year, nearly $300 per ounce. (6) The influence of the stock market on the price of gold. Generally speaking, the stock market falls and the price of gold rises. This mainly reflects investors' expectations of economic development prospects. If everyone is generally optimistic about the economic prospects, a lot of money will flow to the stock market, and the investment enthusiasm in the stock market will be high, and the price of gold will fall. On the other hand, in addition to the above-mentioned factors affecting the price of gold, the intervention activities of international financial organizations and the policies and regulations of central financial institutions in China and other regions will also have a significant impact on the change of world gold prices. (7) Oil price gold itself as a hedge against inflation is inseparable from inflation. Rising oil prices mean that inflation will follow, and so will the price of gold.
Gold is a metal discovered and used earlier by human beings. Because it is rare, special and precious, it has been regarded as the first hardware since ancient times, and has the title of "king of metals", enjoying an incomparable reputation with other metals, and its prominent position is almost eternal. It is precisely because of this "noble" status that gold once became a symbol of wealth and luxury, and was used as a financial reserve, currency, jewelry and so on. So far, the application of gold in the above fields still occupies a major position.
Demand and use
1). Used as international reserve. This is determined by the monetary commodity property of gold. Because of its excellent characteristics, gold has played a role as a currency in history, such as a measure of value, a means of circulation, a means of storage, a means of payment and a world currency. Since the decoupling of gold and the dollar in 1970s, the gold function of money has also weakened, but it still maintains a certain monetary function. At present, gold still occupies a very important position in the international reserves of many countries, including major western countries. 2). Used as jewelry decoration. Gorgeous gold ornaments have always been a symbol of one's social status and wealth. 3). Application in industry and science and technology. Because of its unique and perfect characteristics, gold has extremely high corrosion resistance stability. Good electrical and thermal conductivity; The gold nucleus has a large effective cross section to capture neutrons; The reflection ability of infrared ray is close to100%; It has various catalytic properties in gold alloys; Gold also has good manufacturability and can be easily processed into ultra-thin gold foil, micron gold thread and gold powder; Gold is easy to be plated on the surface of other metals, pottery and glass, and it is easy to be welded and forged under certain pressure. Gold can be made into superconductors and organic gold. It is precisely because of its many beneficial properties that it has reason to be widely used in the most important modern high-tech industries, such as electronic technology, communication technology, aerospace technology, chemical technology, medical technology and so on.