What is the impact of oil prices?
1, crude oil inventory and oil price
After the publication of crude oil inventory and demand data, the oil price will fluctuate upward or downward, which will directly affect the trend of Brent oil in London and Singapore and drive the oil price to fluctuate upward or downward. The influence of crude oil inventory on oil price is complicated. When the futures price is much higher than the spot price, crude oil companies tend to increase commercial inventory and reduce current supply, thus stimulating the spot price to rise and narrowing the futures spot price difference. When the futures price is lower than the spot price, crude oil companies tend to reduce the commercial inventory and increase the current supply, which leads to the decline of the spot price and a reasonable price difference with the futures price.
2. US dollar exchange rate factor Since international crude oil transactions are mainly priced in US dollars, the US dollar exchange rate is also one of the important factors that affect the rise and fall of crude oil prices. When the dollar appreciates, the international prices of raw materials such as gold, crude oil and copper are under downward pressure. On the contrary, when the dollar depreciates, the price of such goods will rise.
However, the impact of the dollar exchange rate factor on oil prices is only temporary and not significant enough. Statistical analysis shows that the correlation coefficient between WTI crude oil futures price and US dollar index is -0.22, which shows that the role of US dollar exchange rate relative to the supply and demand of crude oil in oil price fluctuation is very small.
3. World Economic Development Global economic growth will affect the price of crude oil by changing the demand of crude oil market. There is a strong positive correlation between economic growth and oil demand growth, and the proportional relationship between them is generally expressed by the elastic coefficient of crude oil consumption to GDP. However, the change of economic growth rate can not only explain the rise of oil prices in the medium and long term, but also the decline of oil prices caused by short-term economic recession can be reflected in the changes of economic data.
4. Unexpected events and climatic conditions Crude oil not only has the attributes of general commodities, but also has the attributes of strategic materials, and its price and supply are greatly influenced by political forces and situations. In recent years, with the development of political multipolarization, economic globalization and production internationalization, competing for crude oil resources and controlling the crude oil market have become important reasons for the oil market turmoil and soaring oil prices. The tense geopolitics has strengthened the expectation of supply contraction in the international crude oil market. Climate will affect the supply and demand of crude oil. For example, abnormal weather may cause damage to crude oil production facilities, lead to supply interruption, and thus affect international oil prices, but its impact on the entire international oil price is short-term. In addition, many countries in Europe and America use crude oil as heating fuel, so when the climate changes abnormally, it will cause short-term changes in fuel oil demand, thus driving the price changes of crude oil and other petroleum products.
5. Geopolitical factors Oil is a scarce and non-renewable resource, an indispensable strategic resource for a country's survival and development, which has a great impact on the country's economy, military and security. The change of international crude oil market price is often influenced by geopolitical factors of oil-producing countries. Geopolitics and the political situation of oil-producing countries have two main influences on oil prices. First, geopolitical conflicts have led to a real decline in crude oil supply; The second is that geopolitical conflicts have caused the international crude oil market to worry about the future supply reduction, but the actual supply has not decreased.