On the morning of July 5th, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) reported that in view of the irrational behaviors such as blind underpricing in the live pig market recently, it was studying to start the central pork reserve, and guiding local governments to jointly start the reserve in a timely manner to form a joint force of regulation and control to prevent the price of live pigs from rising too fast.
On the afternoon of the same day, the official WeChat of the National Development and Reform Commission once again stated that it would work closely with the Dalian Commodity Exchange to further improve the working mechanism, form a joint force with relevant parties, strengthen joint supervision of the spot futures market, promptly investigate and deal with abnormal transactions, strengthen penetrating supervision, and severely crack down on illegal activities such as fabricating and spreading price information, hoarding, driving up prices, and malicious speculation of funds, so as to effectively ensure the smooth operation of the live pig market.
At the market site, the concept of pork cooled down on the 5 th. The wind pig industry index once fell more than 2% in intraday trading. In terms of leading stocks, Mu Yuan shares once turned down, Shi Wen shares and New Hope once fell more than 2%, and Xinwufeng fell nearly 4% in intraday trading.
Blind fencing and secondary fattening lead to soaring pig prices.
On July 4th, the National Development and Reform Commission organized a meeting of industry associations, some breeding enterprises and slaughtering enterprises in view of the recent rapid increase in pig prices.
It is pointed out that the current pig production capacity is generally reasonable and abundant, the consumption is not prosperous, and the pig price does not have the basis for sustained and substantial increase. At the same time, it is clearly pointed out that effective measures such as reserve adjustment and supply and demand adjustment will be taken in time to prevent the price of live pigs from rising too fast, and market supervision will be strengthened in conjunction with relevant departments, and illegal acts such as fabricating and disseminating price increase information and driving up prices will be severely punished.
Before this meeting, the price of pigs had fluctuated for more than 20 days-according to the data of China Pig Breeding Network, on July 4th, the price of foreign ternary pigs was 2 1.48 yuan/kg, which was nearly 34.33% higher than that of June 15.99/ kg, and more than 70% higher than that of March.
According to the analysis of relevant parties, the recent rapid increase in domestic pig prices is mainly due to irrational phenomena such as reluctance to sell and secondary fattening in the market, and some fabricated price increase information further aggravates the reluctance to sell in the short term.
In this regard, the National Development and Reform Commission clearly pointed out that blind enclosure and secondary fattening may lead to centralized slaughter in the later period, and the price will fall rapidly again, causing large fluctuations in market prices, which is not conducive to the normal production and operation of enterprises and the long-term healthy development of the industry.
Reserve regulation prevents pig prices from rising and falling, and the key to future growth is production capacity.
At the press conference on the theme of "Ten Years of China" held at the end of last month, Yang Yinkai, deputy secretary general of the National Development and Reform Commission, said that the supply of important livelihood commodities such as grain, oil, meat, eggs, milk, fruits and vegetables would be kept stable, especially the production capacity of live pigs would be regulated to prevent price fluctuations.
For key varieties such as rice, wheat, pigs, refined oil and coal, the National Development and Reform Commission has established various forms of price range control mechanisms such as "bottoming", "limiting height" and "price upper and lower limits" to effectively cope with abnormal price fluctuations.
In June last year, the National Development and Reform Commission and other six departments jointly issued the Plan for Improving the Government Regulation Mechanism of Pork Reserve to Ensure the Supply and Price Stability of Pork Market, adding two early warning indicators: the change rate of the number of fertile sows and the average retail price of lean meat in 36 large and medium-sized cities. And set up regular reserves and temporary reserves to adjust.
Since then, the Opinions on Promoting the Sustainable and Healthy Development of the Pig Industry has made it clear that during the Tenth Five-Year Plan period, the number of fertile sows in the country will be stable at around 43 million, with a minimum of 40 million; When the monthly year-on-year change rate of fertile sows exceeds 5%, measures such as early warning and guidance, encouraging pig farms (households) to speed up the replenishment of dual sows or eliminating low-yield sows will be taken to promote the return of fertile sows to a reasonable range.
In May this year, the number of fertile sows in China has dropped from a high of 45.64 million in June last year to 4 1.92 million. However, it should be noted that this figure is higher than that in April this year-in April, the number of fertile sows in China was 465,438 +0.77 million.
Ren Zeping, a macro economist, wrote that it is expected that prices will rise moderately in the future, but they do not have the conditions for rapid and substantial increase. The main reason is that the degree of de-capacity is not deep and it is at a historical high level. With the introduction of superimposed measures to ensure supply and stabilize prices, the future increase depends on the degree of de-capacity.
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