However, yesterday, the price of corn 220 1 main contract "opened lower and went lower" and fell sharply. Recently, the main corn contract 220 1 price "alternated". Today, the price per ton of corn has gone up by 47 yuan. What's the reason? At the same time, does this mean that the price increase of corn 220 1 main contract will start again?
Next, let's talk about why the main contract price of corn 220 1 rose by 47 yuan/ton today. For this problem, Bian Xiao believes that the main reason is the continuous decline of the US dollar index.
The market chart shows that the US dollar index has been falling continuously recently, from 10 in October to 13 to 15 at 16: 02, with a cumulative drop of 692 points in three trading days.
As we all know, there is a negative correlation between the US dollar index and the corn price, that is, the US dollar index rises and the corn price falls, or the US dollar index falls and the corn price rises.
Recently, the US dollar index continued to fall, so the main contract price of US corn 12 continued to rise, which in turn made the cost of importing corn in China rise, thus forcing the main contract price of corn 12 to rise.
According to the market trend chart, recently, the main contract price of US corn 12 fluctuated slightly, from 10 to 14 to 16 at 15. For two trading days, US corn 12.
As a result, the main contract price of corn 12 soared by 47 yuan/ton today. Does this mean that the price increase of corn 220 1 main contract will start again?
For this question, Bian Xiao thinks it may not be! From a technical point of view, the current corn 220 1 main contract price does not have the technical support for continuous increase.
Although the price of corn 220 1 main contract has fluctuated recently, the three-line hook of KDJ indicator and the red energy column of MACD indicator are also shrinking. These signals indicate that the price of corn 220 1 main contract is limited.
From a fundamental point of view, although the US dollar index has been declining recently, Bian Xiao feels that its rising potential is still great. Once the US dollar index "turns up" in the future, it will inevitably suppress the main contract price of corn by 220 1.
At present, the Federal Reserve is still hesitating whether to tighten monetary policy as soon as possible for several reasons: 1, the employment situation in the United States in September was "unsatisfactory", and early tightening of monetary policy may continue to "worsen" the employment situation in the United States. 2. Today, the market risk of US debt default has not been "deducted". If monetary policy is contracted prematurely, the credit risk of debt default will be greater.
However, the continuous decline of the US dollar index is unfavorable to some export-oriented countries, so preventing the further decline of the US dollar index will be the primary task of these countries.
So, how can we make the dollar index "stop falling and rebound"? In this regard, Bian Xiao felt that in order for the US dollar index to "stop falling and rebound", the Federal Reserve should shrink its monetary policy as soon as possible.
What measures are there: 1 to reduce the "demand" of industrial enterprises for raw materials? 2. Maintaining the stability of the domestic currency exchange rate makes the price of export commodities rise, forcing domestic inflation in the United States to continue to "climb".
Now China has been reducing the demand for raw materials for industrial enterprises through the policy of "limiting electricity and production". Next, it depends on whether the offshore RMB exchange rate can be stable.
Once the offshore RMB exchange rate is maintained in the range of 6.42-6.49 in the future, the inflation rate in the United States is likely to be higher than 5.4% next month, which will force the Federal Reserve to shrink its monetary policy as soon as possible.
Therefore, Bian Xiao speculates that the US dollar index will not continue to fall sharply in the future, so the price increase of corn 220 1 main contract will not start again.
Therefore, Bian Xiao thinks that even though the price of corn per ton has increased by 47 yuan today, under the combined effect of these factors, the price increase of corn 220 1 main contract will not start again. What do you think of this? Is this consistent with Bian Xiao's view?