1, the accuracy and timeliness of information is difficult to evaluate. In essence, there is market supply and demand information that is difficult to count in the market. Different people are exposed to different information, and even have different interpretations of the same news. Finally, the forward price is reconciled through centralized bidding. The Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) reported that the soybean production area in Illinois was in a serious market, and there would be a serious shortage of soybeans unless the drought was lifted. Suddenly, the sound of rain outside the window caught the attention of traders on the floor, and then empty orders appeared one after another, and the original rising price plummeted. In fact, the soybean producing area is still clear in Wan Li, and there is no rain in Wan Li.

Speculators make it more difficult to make profits. For any commodity, its total profit is limited, which is far from the speculators' expectation. Most people who engage in futures dream of making money, and a few also hold the mentality of preserving value, and the expectation is always positive. Most futures participants have less than 654.38+million yuan, but they dream of earning/kloc-0 to10 million yuan. Secondly, a few rational investors also hold the ideal of 10% to 200% return. More than 80% of the total profit of commodities is occupied by major manufacturers and distributors, and the dividend of commodities flowing to the secondary market is less than 20%. In this way, the gap between the total profit of commodities shared by the futures market and the total expectation of speculators may exceed 20 times. There are two sources of profit in the secondary market. The first is the commodity bonus, and the second is the money lost by other speculators. Because commodity dividends cannot meet the wealth needs of speculators, the source can only be the second. This fundamentally determines that most people can't make a profit, let alone meet expectations.