Generally speaking, for supply, the increase of commodity supply will lead to the decline of price, and the decrease of supply will lead to the increase of price; As far as demand is concerned, an increase in commodity demand will lead to an increase in prices, while a decrease in demand will lead to a decrease in prices. The supply and demand of sugar also follow the same law.

1, supply of sugar

The world sugar output is1.21-65438+40 million tons, and the countries and regions with output exceeding100000 tons include Brazil, India, European Union and China. Among them, Brazil's output exceeds 20 million tons. Brazil, the European Union and Thailand are the main sugar exporters in the world, and their output and supply have great influence on their own markets. Especially Brazil, as the most influential and competitive sugar producer in the world sugar market, its annual sugar output, currency exchange rate and government sugar policy directly affect the changing trend of international sugar market prices.

China is one of the important sugar producing countries in the world. In recent years, the sugar output has been kept at around100000.

Table 2: Output of major sugarcane sugar producing countries in the world

Unit: ten thousand tons

00/0 10 1/0202/0303/0404/05

Africa 907886.9904. 1895.9903.8

South Africa 281.3229275.1241.9222.5

Egypt109.75438+006.110/08.438+009.

the Sudan

Mauritius

Swaziland

Zimbabwe 54.55850. 142.240

United States of America

When the inventory level in North China decreased, the supply was tight. There is often a negative correlation between carry-over inventory level and sugar price.

As far as China is concerned, national purchasing and storage, industrial temporary purchasing and storage and sugar merchants' turnover inventory have formed an inventory that can affect the market sugar price nationwide. When the sugar price is too high (too low), the state adjusts the market sugar price by selling (storing) the sugar stored by the state. It is of great significance to estimate the inventory of the current year and the following year and the state's purchasing, storage and sales of sugar for correctly estimating the price of sugar.

(2) Climate and weather

Sugar, as an agricultural and sideline product, both spot price and futures price will be affected by climate and weather factors.

Influence. Sugarcane has the characteristics of high temperature and strong light, high water demand and high fertilizer absorption in growing period, and it has special dependence on light, heat and water conditions that constitute climate resources. Drought, flood, strong wind, hail, low temperature frost and other weather have disastrous effects on the growth period of sugarcane, which will be long-term once formed. For example, frost occurred in the main sugarcane producing areas in China at the end of 1999/2000, which not only reduced the sugar yield by more than 2 million tons in the sugar-making period of 1999/2000, but also reduced the germination rate of ratoon sugarcane, which led to a change in the relationship between supply and demand and the price of sugar.

Besides paying attention to the climate and weather in China, we should also pay attention to the climate and weather changes in major sugar exporting countries. For example, Brazil's climate is influenced by marine climate, and global climate anomalies have a greater impact on Brazil, while sugarcane production is closely related to climate change. For example, in 2000, Brazil's sugar production also decreased by about 2 million tons.

(3) Seasonality

Sugar is a commodity that is produced seasonally and sold annually, and its sales have its inherent laws. In China, the time of concentrated squeezing of sugarcane is from 10 to April of the following year. Due to the centralized listing of white sugar, the supply of white sugar is very sufficient in the short term. With the passage of time and continuous consumption, the inventory of white sugar is getting less and less. And the price often changes with it, which has seasonal characteristics.

Policy factors

Relevant policies of international sugar organizations, subsidies to sugar producers in EU countries and production support policies of the US government all have an important impact on the world sugar supply. The sugar import and export policies and tariff policies of various countries are also factors that cannot be ignored. For example, the United States implements a quota system for sugar management, and imports sugar from designated countries according to quotas. The import price is generally higher than the international market price. The United States does not export raw sugar, but a large number of edible syrups extracted from raw sugar are exported. Therefore, if sugar-producing countries export to the United States, they must first obtain the import quota of the United States. Brazil, Cuba and CIS control sugar production in a planned way by controlling planting area. The governments of India, the Philippines and Thailand control the export quantity according to the domestic market situation and adjust relevant policies at any time. Due to the government's intervention, sugar prices at home and abroad have a certain linkage and often deviate.

China has fully liberalized the sugar market, but sugar has always been one of the important commodities of national macro-management. The state adopts the following measures to carry out macro-control: first, the government of the producing area links the purchase price of sugarcane with the sales price of sugar; The second is to establish sugar reserves at the central and local levels; The third is to introduce sugar guidance price and self-discipline price; Fourth, sugar imports are arranged by the National Development and Reform Commission. At present, the main government departments and organizations related to sugar industry management are: National Development and Reform Commission, Ministry of Commerce, Ministry of Agriculture and China Sugar Industry Association.

(5) Substitutes

Sweetener is the main substitute for sugar. Its use reduces the normal market share of sugar and has a certain impact on the supply and price of sugar. Sweeteners mainly include the following types: first, starch sugar, which is expected to produce 4.3 million tons in China in 2004, up 22.8% year-on-year; The second is saccharin, which is 500 times sweeter than white sugar. China implements mandatory planning management, and there are five production enterprises. In 2004, China produced 247 18 tons of saccharin. The third is sodium cyclamate. In 2004, China produced 55,000 tons.

(6) Holidays

In a year, Spring Festival and Mid-Autumn Festival are the festivals that consume the most sugar in China. In 1 month before two holidays, due to the large amount of sugar used in the food industry, the consumption of sugar entered the peak period, and the sugar price was often higher during this period. After two festivals, the price of sugar tends to fall due to the decrease of sugar consumption. August and September are the peak periods of sugar consumption. Moon cakes, candied fruit in the north, drinks and biscuits all need sugar very much, which will stimulate the consumption of sugar.

(VII) Linkage of international futures markets

With the development of international integration, the prices of the world's major sugar futures markets are increasingly interacting with each other.

Benefit promotion. China is one of the major producers, consumers and importers of sugar in the world. There is a strong correlation between the domestic spot sugar price and the international sugar price, and the domestic sugar futures price and the international sugar price have a certain convergence in the changing trend.

(viii) International and domestic political and economic situation

The prosperity of the world economy is one of the important factors that determine the price of commodity futures. When the economy is booming, production expands and trade is active, which leads to an increase in commodity demand and pushes up futures prices. On the contrary, it remains the same.

Changes in the domestic economic situation, especially changes in the main prosperity indicators of the national economy, will directly affect the changes in agricultural futures prices. When the domestic consumption index is high, investors should consider the future trend; When the national macro-economy is loose, the social development is stable and the capital supply is relatively loose, it not only accelerates the economic development, but also increases the capital invested in the futures market, and vice versa.

(9) Economic cycle

Economic cycle is the basic feature of market economy, which generally consists of four stages: recovery, prosperity, recession and depression. In the economic cycle, fluctuations in economic activities occur in almost all economic sectors. Affected by this, the price of white sugar will also fluctuate. Macroscopically, the economic cycle is one of the most important factors.

(10) Other factors

Some unexpected events, such as avian flu and SARS, will have a certain impact on the market price; Changes in interest rates, exchange rates, inflation rates, consumption habits, transportation costs and difficulties will also have a certain impact on sugar prices; Changes in market speculative forces and psychological factors often affect the trend of sugar prices.