During this pricing cycle, the international crude oil price fluctuated violently. The market expects OPEC to cut production when necessary to support oil prices, and many OPEC+members, including Oman and Iraq, support this view. The conflict in Libya is also beneficial to the crude oil market. There is a fierce conflict in the capital of the country, and the market is worried about the interruption of crude oil supply in this OPEC country.
On the other hand, with the expectation of interest rate increase by the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve, the inflation rate of many major economies in the world is close to double-digit level, thus inhibiting economic growth and fuel demand expectations, and the negative pressure on the crude oil market still exists. In addition, betting that the Fed will raise interest rates sharply again has also boosted the strength of the US dollar, putting pressure on crude oil denominated in US dollars.
The data shows that last Friday (September 2), international oil prices closed up, and the light crude oil futures for June delivery in the New York Mercantile Exchange closed at 86.87 US dollars per barrel, with an increase of 0.30%. /kloc-London Brent crude oil futures for delivery in October/October 165438 closed at $93.02 per barrel, up 0.7 1%.
It is estimated that on September 5th, the 9th working day of this round, the valuation of Zhongyu crude oil is 96.02, which is +2.3 1 or +2.59% compared with the benchmark price, and the corresponding range is +200 yuan/ton. Tentatively, the retail price limit of refined oil will be raised by 200 yuan at 24: 00 on September 6th. If the upward adjustment is implemented, the domestic refined oil price adjustment will stop the "five-day losing streak" in 2022.
Jinlianchuang estimates that the change rate is 3.33% as of September 5, and the average price of reference oil is 95.44 USD, and the domestic gasoline and diesel oil is correspondingly increased by 1.90 yuan/ton. The retail price of refined oil will be raised for the first time in the second half of the year. For most car owners, fuel costs will increase. According to the capacity of a 50-liter car fuel tank of an ordinary family car, it costs about 7 yuan to fill up a tank of oil.
According to Zhongxin Jingwei, since the beginning of this year, domestic refined oil prices have been adjusted by 16 rounds, showing a pattern of "10 rising, 6 falling and 0 stranded", with gasoline prices increasing by 1405 yuan/ton and diesel prices increasing by 1350 yuan/ton.
It is worth mentioning that on the evening of September 5, Beijing time, the OPEC+monthly meeting was held. According to Reuters, OPEC+agreed to reduce its daily output by more than 654.38 million barrels in June, and Russia expressed its support for the plan. The next scheduled meeting will be held on June 5th. 10. The organization expressed its willingness to hold another ministerial meeting at any time if it is necessary to solve the market development problem.
For the market outlook, Zhongyu Information believes that the deteriorating international economic performance will continue to curb bullish confidence, which may lead to a downward revision of the crude oil price center in the next cycle. However, the structural shortage in the short-term market has not changed substantially, and the probability of further sharp decline is low. Therefore, it is temporarily expected that the expected trend of the new round of price adjustment will be a narrow upward trend.
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