It is true that with the continuous rebound of pig prices, it can be described as "something for nothing" for farmers, just as the saying goes, "Happiness may be late, but it will never be absent".
According to official data, according to the change of the number of fertile sows in China, the number of fertile sows in China reached a stage high of 45.64 million at the end of June 20021year. With the continuous decline of pig prices and the acceleration of market productivity in the second half of last year, the number of sows kept declining. According to the growth cycle of pigs, after 10 months, the output of pigs reached its peak in April 2022.
The supply of live pigs has changed from "significant surplus to slight surplus". Although the demand side was greatly affected by the COVID-19 epidemic in April-May, the price of live pigs still returned to the level of 8-9 yuan/kg, which indirectly confirmed the trend that the slaughter amount of live pigs decreased obviously and the cycle gradually reversed. Moreover, the data released by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs showed that the number of fertile sows decreased by 0.2% in April, and the decline was 0.8% narrower than that of the previous month, which once again showed that the production capacity of live pigs was declining.
After entering the end of May, the slaughter plan of large-scale pig farms decreased month-on-month, and there was little pressure on small and medium-sized farmers to slaughter. COVID-19 epidemic prevention and control areas have been unsealed one after another, especially the "Shanghai epidemic" has been unsealed by region. It is understood that all social sectors in Shanghai 16 were cleared yesterday, and the resumption of classes increased the terminal consumption of pork, further supporting the rise in pig prices, and the bullish sentiment at the breeding end was further enhanced.
Due to the sharp rise of domestic mainstream pig futures, the pig market price continued to rise from September to June, and the phenomenon of secondary fattening of piglets increased, and the piglet market also rose. At present, the price of weaned piglets in some areas has risen to around 600 yuan, which is nearly 240 yuan/head higher than that at the beginning of the year, with an increase of about 87%, which once again shows the increase of bullish sentiment in the follow-up market.
At present, the pig price in some areas has reached above the fattening cost line. In Guangdong, the southern market, due to the restrictions on the transfer of live pigs from other places, the price increase performance of slaughter enterprises is outstanding, and the average price of live pigs has risen to more than "9 yuan/kg", which is likely to "break 90% 10".
However, with the high price of live pigs, the market mentality has gradually changed, and the mood of waiting for the price of breeding has become stronger.
At present, the average weight of domestic mainstream live pigs has rebounded to about 12 1 kg, and the amount of live pigs slaughtered has increased, which also means that the market has a strong feeling of quantity control.
Although the domestic consumer market is still' tired', some wholesale markets have poor delivery of striped pigs, and slaughter enterprises are willing to reduce prices, but due to the small number of farms, large pig enterprises have increased their active control, especially the supply of some low-priced pig sources in the north is weak, so it is difficult to purchase from slaughterhouses. Although slaughter enterprises are willing to reduce prices, it is difficult to curb the rise in pig prices.
In the short to medium term, it is difficult to improve the loose supply of live pigs. As the temperature rises gradually, the risk of pig farm disease increases sharply, while the consumer market is in the off-season and lacks obvious support. The problem of overlapping masks in China is still repeated, the mobility of regional personnel is still limited, the consumption of catering and tourism is limited, and the high price of live pigs also boosts the price of pork, which further intensifies consumer resistance. Farmers need to be alert to the risk of centralized slaughter in some markets. According to some organizations' predictions, around the Dragon Boat Festival.
According to the monitoring of the pig price system, among the 26 provinces and cities monitored today, the price of live pigs rose by 0 and fell by 8, and the rising areas accounted for 69% of all the monitoring. The pig market as a whole shows a trend of "rising steadily".
According to the purchasing difficulty of slaughter enterprises, it is more difficult for slaughter enterprises to purchase pigs, and the delivery speed of group pig farms is better. Suppliers have a certain willingness to raise prices, and the phenomenon of pig enterprise premium is more obvious.
The market sentiment performed well, the bullish sentiment rose slightly, and the constraint phenomenon of the terminal consumer market still existed.
Most of the pig prices in breeding groups have increased, while the pig prices in pig enterprises have increased significantly. The number of live pigs listed by the leading group decreased and adjusted, and the price of pigs in key areas shrank to a certain extent, and the price of pigs in many pig farms showed a premium phenomenon.
The ex-factory price of white striped pigs in northern slaughter enterprises increased by 300-500 yuan/ton, and the delivery speed of slaughter enterprises was slightly accelerated.
Early warning of pig price trend tomorrow: combined with the recent analysis of pig market factors, it is expected that pig price will show a "large-scale rise" trend tomorrow.
The above interpretation of the pig market is for your reference. Welcome to exchange views on the live pig market, grasp the market dynamics, collect and share. I believe that with your help, the price of pigs will continue to rise tomorrow.