At present, 270-300 million tons of imported coal accounts for one third of the coastal market in China, which plays an irreplaceable supplementary role in the coastal market. The amount of imported coal directly affects the trend of China coastal coal market, and then indirectly affects the national coal supply system.
Reason 2: In the second half of the year, the coal in Inner Mongolia decreased by more than 40 million tons.
Inner Mongolia ranks first in the country in coal production. In 20 19, the coal output of Inner Mongolia was10.4 billion tons, accounting for 27.7% of the national coal output of 3.75 billion tons. The coal supply in Inner Mongolia has a great influence on the national coal supply and demand. In 2020, under the influence of many factors, such as 20-year backward investigation in Inner Mongolia coalfield, coal management ticket, safety inspection, and difficulty in land acquisition in open-pit coal mines, the coal production in Inner Mongolia declined seriously.
Statistics from the National Bureau of Statistics show that1-1month, the coal output in Inner Mongolia was 900 million tons, down by 43.59 million tons, or 9. 1%. If the off-balance-sheet capacity reduction that has not entered the statistical caliber is counted, the annual coal reduction in Inner Mongolia will be at least 654.38 billion tons; From July to June +0 165438+ 10, the output was 4/kloc-0 million tons, down 20.93 million tons year-on-year. If we count the off-balance-sheet capacity reduction that has not entered the statistical caliber, it will be at least 40 million tons, which will have a huge impact on the coal supply system!
Reason 3: Power demand rose sharply in the second half of the year.
In the third quarter of 2020, the National Meteorological Administration predicted that there would be a high probability of "La Nina" extremely cold weather during the peak winter season. The large-scale cold wave during the peak winter has brought about a significant increase in heating load, and the electricity load in many provinces in China, such as Zhejiang and Jiangsu, has reached a record high. In addition, under the influence of the global epidemic, China is the only country with positive GDP growth among the world's major economies. Factories around the world are running at full capacity, and industrial electricity consumption has also increased significantly.
Coupled with the seasonal reduction of hydropower, new energy sources such as photovoltaic wind power lack flexibility, coal-fired power is the ballast stone and stabilizer of power supply, and the demand for coal continues to increase substantially. 165438+ 10 From July to June, the thermal power generation increased by 5.3% year-on-year (the coal consumption increased by about 40 million tons), of which the thermal power generation increased by 6.6% in June +065438+ 10 and 9.7% in February.
Reason 4: Some hot money uses loopholes in futures delivery products to speculate on coal prices.
The situation of coal shortage during the peak winter in 2020 is better than that at the beginning of 20 18, but the coal market price is much higher than 20 18, mainly because of the epidemic, sufficient liquidity and loose funds, and some hot money uses the loopholes designed by futures delivery rules to speculate on coal prices.
Due to the limitation of imported coal and insufficient output in Inner Mongolia, there is a serious shortage of high-calorie and low-sulfur thermal coal in the port that meets the delivery rules. Some hot money took advantage of this loophole, superimposed the whole black system and unscrupulously speculated on coal prices.
Due to the new market situation brought about by the change of international environment, the big trading company revised the delivery standards of large iron ore, coking coal and other varieties affected by imports in time. However, the delivery standard of thermal coal, which has been criticized by many parties, has not kept pace with the times and has been revised in time with the market environment.