20 14, the national debt market of the exchange rose all the way. Government bond index started to rise slowly from 139.54, and closed at 145.48 on February 5th, up 5.94 points. The corporate bond market of the Exchange rose slowly from 166.6 1, and closed at 180.76 in February, rising14. 15. The inter-bank bond market, which accounts for half of the domestic bond market, began to rise strongly from the beginning of 20 14 1 month. The total net value index of China interbank bonds rose from 1 10.29 at the beginning of the year to11in the middle of October. Looking forward to the new year, based on the macroeconomic fundamentals and policies of China, it is predicted that the inter-bank bond market is expected to continue the slow bull pattern in 20 15 years. Then, where are the investment opportunities in the bond market, and how should investors lay out the 20 15 bond market?
First, the overall market is well funded, and the bond market will continue the slow cattle pattern.
Judging from the current macroeconomic situation and monetary policy at home and abroad, the market funds will remain relatively abundant in 20 15 years, which is conducive to the further strengthening of the bond market. In terms of domestic macro-economy, the Blue Book of Economy: Analysis and Forecast of China's Economic Situation in 20 15 released by China Academy of Social Sciences shows that the economic growth is generally stable this year. It is estimated that the annual economic growth in 20 14 will be 7.3%, which is lower than the 7.7% in 20 13 and the 7.5% previously predicted by the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. Meanwhile, Ma Jun, chief economist of the Research Bureau of the People's Bank of China, pointed out in his recent work report that the central bank expects the economic growth rate to be reduced to 7. 1% next year. Some experts believe that 7% is the bottom line of China's economic growth. Once this bottom line is broken, the risks in the financial sector will rise sharply, which will directly affect the national economic security. 7% may already be the policy bottom line that regulators may tolerate. Another set of important data is CPI and PPI. June 65438+February 10 The National Bureau of Statistics announced the national consumer price level (CPI) and the national industrial producer price (PPI) 1 1. The data shows that in June, the CPI rose 1.4% year-on-year at 5438+065438+ 10, the lowest in five years. PPI decreased by 2.7% year-on-year, the largest decline in the year. Market analysts predict that CPI will continue to fall in June 5438+February, which may be around 1%, while PPI will maintain the current negative growth trend, which leaves a broad space for future monetary policy regulation.
Internationally, the economic growth of China's neighboring countries is worrying, which has a negative impact on China's economy. At present, the American economy is recovering strongly, but the foundation is still not solid. According to official data, the core sales in the United States increased month-on-month, the real estate market in the United States picked up and the unemployment rate dropped, which made most analysts full of confidence in the American economy in 20 15. It is widely expected that the Fed will enter the interest rate hike channel on 20 15. However, Europe's economic growth is weak, the ruble has depreciated sharply, and it is difficult for the Japanese economy to get out of the quagmire for a long time. This series of factors will have a greater negative impact on China's exports, which is not conducive to economic growth.
Considering the economic data at home and abroad and the macro-economic environment comprehensively, it needs great wisdom for regulators to introduce monetary policy in the future (60 15 19, share it). On the one hand, China's real economy is relatively weak, and the macroeconomic data is not ideal. With the strengthening of American economy, overseas funds will flow back to the United States, which will leave more room for interest rate cuts and RRR; On the other hand, excessively loose monetary policy may only have a destructive impact on China's real economy. With the continuous strengthening of the stock market, the funds of the banking system flowed into the stock market in large quantities through the "two-finance" business of securities firms, which made the stock market out of a bull market under the unsatisfactory economic situation. Due to the constraints of economic structure, it is difficult for these currencies to flow into the real economy and really support the development of enterprises. Therefore, in 20 15 years, China will still implement a prudent monetary policy, and RRR cut is a high probability event, but the regulatory authorities will not allow the market funds to flood.
The main factor that determines the domestic bond market is capital, and the strong upward trend of each round of bond market is bound to be a capital-driven market. If the funds in the 20 15 market remain moderately abundant, the bond market is expected to maintain a bull market pattern. However, considering that the bond market is already at a high level, both the exchange bond market and the inter-bank bond market will continue the slow bull pattern, and it is unlikely to rise rapidly.
Second, the credit risk premium of No.43 negative local debt will be expanded.
20 14 was once called the first year of default in the industry, and many credit bonds once appeared the risk of default. Super-Japanese debt was once considered as the first bond default event in China, but the myth of rigid redemption has not been broken. Apart from a few insignificant private debts, there is no real default in China's bond market. But will 20 15 be so lucky? The default risk of credit bonds is increasing rapidly, especially local bonds will become the focus of future market attention.
In late September of 20 14, the State Council issued the Opinions of the State Council on Strengthening Local Government Debt Management (Guo Fa [2065438+04] No.43), which was called No.43 document by the industry. The primary goal of this document is to control local debts and make a series of strict regulations on local government borrowing. The biggest impact on the bond market is that local governments can borrow money in the future, but they cannot set up platform enterprises to borrow money under the guise of enterprises and local governments. This means that the current pattern of local government's rigid payment of local debt will be completely broken. Shortly after the publication of Circular 43, a local government issued a document saying that the previous guarantee for local debt was invalid. For example, on June 5438+February 1 1, the Finance Bureau of Tianning District of Changzhou issued a correction letter on the Explanation of Incorporating Corporate Bonds of Changzhou Tianning Construction and Development Co., Ltd. into Government Debt in 20 14. The document shows that the "14 Tianning Bond" issued by Changzhou Tianning Construction Development Co., Ltd. is a corporate bond submitted for approval according to regulations. According to the Opinions on Strengthening the Management of Local Government Debt, this bond is not a government debt, and the government does not assume the responsibility for repayment. The company shall be responsible for debt management and repayment. Therefore, the Statement on the Incorporation of Corporate Bonds into Government Debts of Changzhou Tianning Construction and Development Co., Ltd. in 20 14 years issued by our bureau on February/0/0 is invalid, and it is hereby corrected.
Due to the existence of the government's rigid payment, the assets of the original local debt or government financing platform have always been regarded as the safest assets in China by commercial banks and other financial institutions, and there is no possibility of default risk. These assets are usually the object of competition among financial institutions. At the same time, under the chase of financial institutions, individual local governments borrowed too much to make ends meet, and realized redemption by borrowing new ones and returning old ones. However, with the breaking of the myth of rigid redemption, some high-risk local bonds will no longer be favored by investors. Once the issuer is unable to repay the debt, the risk of default will surface. Moreover, the current situation of the real economy is not ideal. In addition to local bonds, whether some already precarious credit bonds can continue to survive 20 15 is also the most worrying issue for investors. What is certain is that the myth of rigid redemption will soon become history, and the risk premium of high-risk bonds will gradually increase. Even in the bull market of the bond market, some occasional black swan events will cause the trend of the bond market to be divided into two levels, that is, the yield of high-rated bonds will further decrease, while the yield of low-rated bonds will gradually increase with the increase of risk premium. Investors must adjust their investment strategies to guard against the default risk of credit bonds.
Third, the seesaw effect of stock debt reappears. Convertible bonds are expected to continue to strengthen.
20 15 in addition to market funds, the trend of the stock market may be the biggest factor affecting the bond market. Judging from the historical market, there is an obvious seesaw effect between the stock market and the bond market, that is, a sharp rise in the stock market will generally be accompanied by a sharp decline in the bond market, and vice versa. On June 5438- 10, 2007, with the stock market reaching the historical high of 6 124.04, the total net value index of China's inter-bank bonds fell back to 109.88, and with the sharp decline of the stock market, the bond market gradually strengthened. From the analysis of the reasons, when the stock market is strong, some investors' funds will be diverted from the bond market to the stock market to obtain high returns from the stock market; On the contrary, when the stock market continues to fall, the funds in the stock market will choose the bond market as an ideal safe haven. If the 20 15 stock market strengthens further, it will divert funds from the bond market, which will adversely affect the trend of the bond market. However, in the future, the overall market is well funded, and the seesaw effect has limited impact on the bond market.
At the same time, with the strength of the stock market, convertible bonds in the exchange bond market will benefit, which is the first choice for investors to invest in the bond market. Although the 20 15 bond market is expected to continue the slow bull pattern, and most bond varieties can bring good returns to investors, convertible bonds may continue to rise strongly, bringing considerable returns to investors. From the beginning of the year to now, most convertible bonds have risen to a certain extent with the rise of stocks. Convertible bonds above 200 yuan have reappeared in the market, but there are still great investment opportunities for convertible bonds in the future, which deserves investors' attention.
In this round of rising stock market, the phenomenon of "February 28th" is very obvious. Brokerage stocks and banking stocks led the gains, and some second-tier blue-chip stocks performed exceptionally well. After the stock market is halfway up the mountain, many investors are afraid of stepping on the air, but they are even more afraid of lifting barbells after chasing up. At this time, the advantages of convertible bonds are reflected. If the stock market rises further in the future, the increase of these convertible bonds will be no less than that of stocks; If the stock market is adjusted back after peaking, even if the stock is halved, the convertible bonds will only stop falling until they fall to around 100 yuan. The convertible bonds of bank stocks include BOC convertible bonds and ICBC convertible bonds, and there are many options for secondary blue-chip convertible bonds, such as China Shipping convertible bonds. Investors are advised to choose varieties close to 100 yuan as far as possible to avoid risks.
Fourth, the fluctuation of market funds has intensified, and there are opportunities for treasury bonds futures and repurchase.
From the perspective of investment opportunities, the fluctuation of market funds will intensify in 20 15 years, which will bring new investment opportunities to investors. On the one hand, at the end of each quarter, the market funds will be tightened in stages. At the same time, IPO subscription will also have a great impact on the market funds, and sometimes the bond market will fall back in stages. On the other hand, the recent new regulations of the regulatory authorities will also have a phased impact on the market funds. For example, the adjustment of the statistical caliber of deposits and loans by the central bank may draw10.5 trillion yuan from the market by paying the reserve. If the central bank cannot basically hedge this funding gap, the trend of the bond market will fluctuate. The frequency of such emergencies in the market may continue to increase.
At this point, the best choice for investors is to operate the treasury bond futures in bands. When treasury bond futures open, the market funds are very tight, and investors can get more profits by shorting in one direction. Since the beginning of 2065438+2004, the market funds have become increasingly plentiful, which has brought more opportunities to investors. Since the second half of 20 14, the fluctuation of market funds has intensified, and treasury bonds futures have experienced multi-band ups and downs, which has brought many opportunities to investors. If the volatility of funds in the 20 15 market is further aggravated, the volatility of treasury bond futures will increase, which will bring more investment opportunities for treasury bond futures investors and gain income through various arbitrage operation modes. However, the unilateral rise or unilateral fall of treasury bonds futures since the opening of the market will never return, and the investment risk of treasury bonds futures will also increase accordingly, which will test investors' professional investment ability.
Another investment opportunity in the market is the variety of treasury bonds repurchased by the exchange. Whenever the market funds are tight, the repo rate will soar sharply, especially at the end of the season or during IPO subscription, and the proceeds from the repurchase of government bonds are considerable. Judging from the historical data in recent months, the yield of 7-day varieties can generally exceed 10% during IPO subscription, reaching 15% at the highest. Investors can get risk-free high returns, which are better than all kinds of bank wealth management products and internet wealth management products. Moreover, investors can obtain funds through other compliance channels, and then invest in the repurchase varieties of exchange bonds for risk-free arbitrage. As long as the amount of funds reaches a certain level, the income will be considerable. (This article only represents the author's personal views; Author: School of Economics, Fudan University)