According to industry insiders, the price of soda ash has continued to rise recently, mainly due to the low inventory of soda ash manufacturers and society, while the willingness of downstream glass factories to replenish inventory before the Spring Festival may be strong, and the market is expected to be tight.
Low inventory leads to tight supply expectations.
Soda soda, also known as soda, soda ash, soda noodles or washing soda, consists of sodium carbonate. Soda soda ash is an important basic chemical raw material, and it is one of "three acids and two alkalis". Known as the "mother of chemical industry", it is widely used in many fields of national economy such as building materials, chemical industry, metallurgy, textile, food, national defense and medicine.
Regarding the strong market of soda ash in this round, Li Jiahao, an energy analyst of South China Research Institute, told the reporter of Shanghai Securities Journal that since June 5438+065438+ 10, the soda ash inventory has been kept in a "low level destocking" state. Previously, the market generally believed that soda ash would be in a pattern of high operating rate and weak demand, and the price was expected to go down. However, with the advance of the month, the expectation of backlog has not been fulfilled, even in the low inventory state, there has been a continuous backlog in the upper, middle and lower reaches, and the spot price has been strongly supported in the low inventory state.
Xu, an analyst in the soda industry of Longzhong Information, told the Shanghai Securities Journal that soda enterprises generally have high operating rate, large output and high supply, low factory inventory, social inventory and downstream inventory, relatively stable demand and basically balanced production and sales. The market expects that the downstream enterprises will replenish their stocks more actively before the Spring Festival, and the cash discount in the early stage of futures will be restored.
It is worth mentioning that the main downstream demand field of soda ash in China is the glass industry. According to Zhuo Chuang information statistics, the demand for float glass in 20021year accounts for about 39%, which is the most important downstream demand field of soda ash. This field is closely related to real estate, and the completion of real estate will affect the demand for glass, and then affect the demand and price of soda ash in the upstream.
Under the guidance of a series of policies such as "guaranteeing the delivery of houses", the data of the completed area of the domestic real estate market showed signs of improvement. According to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics, during the national real estate construction period of more than two years, the investment in real estate development projects that are about to enter the delivery stage has maintained rapid growth, and the decline in completed housing area has narrowed. In June1-June 10, the completed housing area of real estate development enterprises decreased 18.7% year-on-year, which was 1.2 percentage points lower than that in June1-September, and the decline rate has been narrowed for three consecutive months.
Institutions: The upstream and downstream markets have not formed a strong market or are difficult to sustain.
With the rising price of soda ash, the production profit of soda ash enterprises is also rising. According to calculation, as of165438+1October 17, the profit of combined alkali production exceeded 1200 yuan/ton, and that of ammonia-alkali production exceeded 800 yuan/ton.
"The high profit of soda ash has always been the most conspicuous label of this commodity, which is in sharp contrast with the loss of downstream float glass." Li Jiahao said.
It is precisely because of the disparity between upstream and downstream profits that many institutions believe that the willingness of glass factories to replenish their stocks before the Spring Festival may not be as good as market expectations, and the strong market of soda ash is also difficult to sustain.
Zijin Tianfeng Futures believes that since the beginning of June 1 1, soda ash futures have continued to rise and the spot price of glass has fallen. The spot price of soda ash has remained stable, the * * vibration market of soda ash futures and spot has not appeared, and the * * vibration market of soda ash and glass has not appeared, so the market is not stable enough. Especially this year, the glass industry suffered serious losses and less cash flow, which may lead to a low reserve of soda ash in the glass factory before the Spring Festival.
SDIC Anxin Futures said that the profits of downstream glass factories declined and the willingness to purchase raw materials was low. In the case of uneven distribution of industrial profits, it is normal for glass factories to maintain safe production inventory for more than 20 days.
Yuanxing Energy recently said on the investor interaction platform that it is understood that the inventory of soda ash industry decreased year-on-year.
Listed companies: There is still room for improvement in soda ash market demand.
Although soda ash is "in the limelight" in the futures market, the performance of A-share soda ash plate is flat.
Jinjing Technology recently said on the investor interaction platform that after the supply-side structural reform in recent years, some backward production capacity of soda ash industry has withdrawn, the industrial structure has been further optimized, and the development mode has changed from extensive growth in the past to intensive growth in quality and efficiency, and the industry concentration has increased.
Jinjing Technology said that from the supply side of the industry, with the construction and commissioning of natural alkali projects during the Tenth Five-Year Plan period, the industry production capacity will increase substantially, the industry concentration will be further improved, and it is expected that the industry competition will be further intensified. From the downstream demand side, float glass is affected by the national supply-side structural reform and real estate policy, and the production capacity is strictly controlled, and the demand for soda ash is weak; Daily glass consumption will increase, and it is expected to maintain a small and low-speed growth trend; With the implementation of the national carbon dioxide emission peak, carbon neutrality and new energy development policies, it is predicted that the expansion of photovoltaic glass and lithium carbonate production capacity will be the main growth point to stimulate the demand for soda ash in the future.
Yuanxing Energy said on the investor interaction platform that with the growth of demand in terminal industries such as automobiles and construction driven by photovoltaic and lithium batteries, the growth of soda ash production capacity is slow, and there is still room for improvement in soda ash market demand.
Shandong Haihua said that the sales volume of soda ash in the first three quarters increased by more than 200,000 tons compared with the same period of last year, and the sales price also increased to a certain extent.