The frequent occurrence of financial crisis in 1990s indicates that financial globalization has entered a new stage. First, the status and influence of emerging countries will increase, and the currency problem of small countries will also trigger global financial turmoil. Second, globalization is a double-edged sword, with both advantages and disadvantages. Third, with the development of financial globalization and informatization, international financial risks are increasing day by day.
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It's huge. Therefore, under the general trend of economic globalization, people must also explore new international financial security mechanisms.
But as a global hegemon, the performance of the United States in the international community is often difficult to understand. At the critical moment of the international financial crisis, the United States did not play the role of "savior". This has aggravated people's worries about the United States and the dollar, but the global turmoil has made people expect the dollar to be stable. The sharp rise in gold and oil prices has prompted a large number of international hedge funds to participate in profit-seeking, which in turn has an impact on the trend of the US dollar. International market relations are becoming more and more complicated. 2. The impact of the strong dollar on the price of gold.
Since the gold market price is set in US dollars, generally speaking, the appreciation of the US dollar will push the price of gold down, and the depreciation of the US dollar will push the price of gold up. The strength of the dollar will have a very significant impact on the price of gold. Therefore, when analyzing the trend of gold price, we should have a directional judgment on the future trend of the US dollar.
What period is the dollar in? First of all, the birth of the euro and the preparation of the Asian dollar pose a huge challenge to the dollar. Objectively, the demand for dollars in the world economy is shrinking. There are some bad signs in the American economy, especially in twin deficits. 1978, the total current account deficit of the United States accounted for less than 1% of its GDP, but now it is close to 6%. Compared with 28 years ago, the savings rate of American families is much lower now, so they need to borrow more money for housing and consumption. The federal government also borrowed more foreign debts. In 2005, the ratio of US government budget deficit to GDP rose from 2.7% in 1978 to 3.6%. Fortunately, so far, there are still some things that are different from those at that time. For example, the inflation level in the United States is relatively much lower than that at that time. Investors still have confidence in the United States and believe that the Fed will continue to maintain this state. Although the recent decline in the US dollar and the rise in oil prices have caused the inflation level to rise slightly, the continuous interest rate increase of 14 has convinced most people that this is only a temporary phenomenon, and the US dollar really bottomed out in 2005. Compared with 9% in 1979, the yield of U.S. 1 0-year treasury bonds remains at 4%, which is the lowest level in recent 40 years.
Judging from the trend of the US dollar in the foreign exchange market, from 200 1 to the end of 2004, the US dollar began to depreciate sharply, and the US dollar index fell from 120 to more than 80 points, which greatly promoted the strong rise of gold prices. However, since 2005, the dollar began to enter the rising channel, which in turn restrained the continuous rise of gold.
In general, the gold price of the US dollar index is negatively correlated, but there are many exceptions. However, this exception is only short-term and cannot exist for a long time. This is because the gold market and the foreign exchange market are two independent financial markets, which are influenced by external factors and have their own internal operating rules. The trend of the US dollar index only provides a frame of reference. Therefore, it is necessary to pay close attention to the trend of the US dollar index, but the trend analysis of the US dollar index cannot replace the trend analysis of the international gold price. 3. The price of crude oil futures reflects that the international economic situation is at the forefront.
The price of crude oil has been rising for five or six years in a row, especially in the last two years (from the stage low of $24. 87/ barrel to the historical high of $765,438 in April, 2003+0.36/ barrel in August, 2005), but recently they are still operating in the high-priced area near $60/barrel, indicating that the global economic development has reached the forefront again.
By comparing the trend of international crude oil price and gold price, we can find that there is a positive correlation between international gold price and crude oil futures price in more time. However, there are also inconsistencies between crude oil futures prices and gold prices.
Therefore, the international crude oil futures price can only provide a reference system for the international gold price, and the analysis of the international gold price trend cannot be replaced by the analysis of crude oil futures price. However, we should pay enough attention to the global economic problems reflected by the changes in international crude oil futures prices and the impact these problems will have on the gold market.
From 200 1, 1 1 to August 2005, the international crude oil futures price rose from 18 USD/barrel to 70 USD/barrel, and the price more than tripled. The price of crude oil rose for the longest time and the biggest increase. What impact will this international crude oil futures price increase have on the global economy? Now, the supply and demand of gold
As a huge and global financial market, the gold market is mainly affected by the relationship between supply and demand, so we will study it from the following aspects: 1. There is a gap in the supply of gold.
In the last five years, the annual output of gold has remained at about 2,572 tons, while the average annual amount of gold sold by central banks in various countries is about 529 tons, and the average annual amount of old gold recovered is about 784 tons. Together with other aspects, the total global gold supply is about 3752 tons per year. In the past five years, the global average annual gold consumption was 3,979 tons, so the gold supply gap was 94 tons per year. Many countries may adjust the ratio of dollar to gold in their foreign exchange reserves.
The fatigue of economic development in the euro zone makes central banks lack confidence in increasing their holdings of the euro; When the two sharp swords of the US dollar (trade and fiscal deficit) fall and hit the US dollar market hard, Asian central banks holding a large amount of US dollars seem to be more worried, so it seems that they lack confidence in increasing their holdings of US dollars. The sharp rise in the prices of gold and oil has caused people to worry about global inflation, so they have bought gold and oil. There are indications that the central banks of many countries, including Russia, South Africa, South Korea and China, have the intention to adjust their gold reserves, but this intention has been affected by the high price of gold. 3. The long-term prosperity of the gold market not only pushed the market demand on a larger scale, but also produced many bubbles.
Judging from the trend of global metal futures prices, the prices of many metals have reached unprecedented highs in decades. For example, the price of platinum and silver reached the highest level in 25 years and 16 years respectively; The prices of metals such as copper, aluminum and zinc have also hit new highs for many years. Factors contributing to this phenomenon include supply interruption, low inventory and investors' confidence that demand for commodities will remain strong next year. This unusually strong situation will prompt the market to play its role in resource allocation and curb this consumption growth, thus putting a question mark on the sustained demand for gold and non-ferrous metals.
First, the jewellery buying boom in India, China and the Middle East has led to double-digit growth in global demand for gold and jewellery. Whether this growth can be maintained in the future is worrying. Once the market situation changes suddenly, people's illusions about maintaining and increasing the value of gold are shattered, and the market is likely to begin to shrink.
Secondly, speculation has increased dramatically. Some analysts believe that the number of hedge funds targeting gold in 2004 and 2005 was staggering, and such activities were mainly concentrated in Tokyo Commodity Exchange and the New York Mercantile Exchange. At the same time, due to the rise in energy prices, the production cost of gold has risen, and the output of gold seems to have reached its peak. The continuous gold purchase fever has continuously pushed up the price of gold. It is not only the strong demand for jewelry in China and India, but also Japanese consumers' worries about inflation. Middle Eastern investors reuse their petrodollars and the investment inflows from hedge funds and other speculators further aggravate the contradiction between supply and demand in the international gold market.
It is precisely because of this that the price of gold has produced this wave of sharp rise for more than four years. However, due to the large increase in the price of gold, there are many bubble components. How long this bubble will last depends largely on the market behavior of hedge funds. Wu Zhen