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First, there are two kinds of demand for gold: physical demand and investment demand. The former is mainly aimed at jewelry, warehousing and industry, while the latter is mainly aimed at various gold trading products, such as paper gold, gold options and futures. Investment demand largely determines the trend of gold price. Investment demand is far greater than physical demand, and the annual global gold supply is roughly equal to physical demand. The demand for physical gold has little effect on the price of gold. What has a great influence on the price of gold is the investment demand of gold.
Second, the main markets for gold are London and new york. The morning and afternoon fixing prices in London have an important influence on the current gold price, and the gold futures price in the New York Mercantile Exchange is the weather vane of the international gold price. The actual annual output value of gold is about $654.38+060 billion, which is only equivalent to the three-day trading volume in new york and London gold markets. Shanghai Gold Exchange and chinese gold and silver exchange society can't compare with the first two in scale and influence.
Third, the main currency of gold is the dollar, and gold is the enemy of the dollar. Today's monetary system is the US-led dollar standard. When the Bretton Woods system collapsed, the United States forced the IMF to stipulate that national currencies should not be linked to gold, so the dollar became the world currency and reserve currency, and more than half of the world's dollars were not in the hands of the United States. In this way, the United States has mastered the initiative of monetary policy, so the international gold price is closely related to the trend of the dollar, and those factors that affect the trend of the dollar will help to analyze the trend of the gold price.
Fourth, the factor of inflation. Gold is regarded as an effective tool to fight inflation. For this problem, we might as well look at it from another angle, that is, refer to the interest rate level. Although gold is expensive, it does not bear interest, which is the bane of gold itself. Although it can preserve the value, it does not generate income. In the low interest rate environment, the advantage of gold is more prominent, but with the increase of interest rate, this advantage will weaken or even disappear.
Fifth, the hedging function. The so-called prosperous antiques, gold in troubled times, the more turbulent the world situation, the greater the demand for gold. But how to understand their relationship is very important. First, apart from the world war, economic turmoil is the most important issue among all turmoil. So you can see that in the three years after the financial crisis in 2008, the price of gold rose more than the previous six years. Second, these upheavals should be related to the United States. No matter how wars are fought in Africa, Wall Street won't care, but 9. 1 1 is different. If you move to the United States, there will soon be two wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, and the price of gold will rise accordingly.
Of course, gold, like other investment products, is difficult to predict and analyze with simple analytical methods. Many factors will change and interact, and investors' own psychological factors are elusive. Therefore, doing a good job in financial investment requires in-depth research and continuous efforts.