In the news, de-capacity in various parts of Shanxi is gradually being implemented, and regional coking de-capacity leads to tight coke supply. After the opening of the sixth round of upward adjustment, the recent gains of coke futures are gratifying, rising by 2.8% again today, and the cumulative increase after the National Day has reached 23.07%.
Daily chart of coke futures
"Coal Flying" again?
For this round of price increase, the main influencing factors are as follows. First, the policy of de-capacity in the coking industry has been further promoted, but the new capacity in some areas can not make up for the production reduction gap for the time being, resulting in tight market supply and demand. Secondly, the operating rate of steel mills is maintained at a high level, and there is a great demand for raw materials such as coke. Finally, the coking plant is in good condition, the coke inventory in the plant is not high, and the feeding enthusiasm is great.
In addition, some insiders have analyzed that the shortage of low-sulfur and high-quality coal in the port and the lack of "liberalization of imported coal" have stimulated the improvement of traders' mood, which is also the main driving factor for the new round of coal price increase.
Judging from the market performance, the price of Shanxi's main coking coal rose first in this round, and the activity of thermal coal market has its lag, so it usually takes some time to increase the purchase volume. At present, favorable factors still exist. After the reduction of imported coal, the number of domestic coal purchased by users will increase. If winter coal storage and transportation are superimposed, the coal market situation can still be expected.
In fact, not only the coal sector, but also the non-ferrous sector performed very well this week. This Friday, the plate rose 10.5%. Among them, it surged by 4.62% on Tuesday, which has recovered nearly half of the decline since the adjustment in July. The linkage between coal and non-ferrous metals has also aroused widespread concern in the market.
The vertical integration of coal-fired power industry chain and coal-fired industry chain is an important direction in the future.
Through structural reform, the periodicity of coal prices has been greatly weakened, and the stability of prices is conducive to the improvement of corporate profitability. China Merchants Securities believes that the decline in the performance of the coal industry this year may narrow to 5% to 8%, which has very good expectations. For the investment value of the coal sector, China Merchants Securities suggested paying attention to three main lines. First, look at the return of dividend rate; Second, we should have expectations for the reform of state-owned enterprises, mainly in Shanxi; Third, there must be a transformation of new energy. For the valuation level, the valuation of about 10 times reflects a high margin of safety, which is a sector of "advancing and attacking, retreating and defending".
Regarding the investment target, Huaan Securities said that from the perspective of profit certainty and resource location advantages, it is recommended to pay attention to China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal Industry and Open-pit Coal Industry, with stable operating capacity and high dividends or high dividends; Pingmei, Huaibei Mining Co., Ltd.; And constant source coal and electricity with obvious resource location advantages.
"Pro-cyclical" or play a leading role in the fourth quarter
Statistics show that the low valuation sector is the mainstream, so the high probability will continue to repeat itself in the fourth quarter of this year. This trend will not change in the context of upward overall economic data. Market hotspots in the fourth quarter should still pay attention to companies whose performance began to reverse in the third quarter, or a group of companies whose performance has increased and their valuations are still within the acceptable range.
At present, we mainly look at two aspects. On the one hand, the current overall market valuation differentiation has reached the highest level in history. In the case that the subsequent liquidity cannot be further stimulated, the probability of further expansion of valuation differentiation between game sectors is very low, and it is difficult to "pull out the valuation" in the later stage. On the other hand, the momentum of economic recovery is very obvious, commodity prices are picking up, the year-on-year growth rate of PPI is picking up, and the year-on-year growth rate of M2 in the United States, Japan and Europe has reached a multi-year high. Changes in the fundamental environment are conducive to low-valued varieties.
For the fourth quarter market, Huatai Securities believes that because of the sustained economic recovery, the performance improvement of listed companies is "taking over", and loose liquidity has become the core driving force of A shares. Some pro-cyclical growth stocks (benefiting from economic recovery) will perform better, mainly focusing on cycle and consumption.
Referring to the results of the third quarterly report, Dongxing Securities believes that it can be allocated in a pro-cyclical direction: First, finance, banking, insurance, real estate, coal, and steel, where pessimistic expectations have been fully released and valuation safety margins are high; Second, along the direction of performance improvement, machinery and automobiles with good pro-cyclical prosperity, improved industrial structure and excellent performance in the third quarterly report, as well as growth industries with long-term space, short-term catalysis and gradually verified performance, such as photovoltaics, new energy vehicles and liquor.
According to past experience, when the market is not pessimistic about the economic expectation for the next year, it is easy to switch the valuation of low-valued blue chips in the fourth quarter of each year. Specifically, the rising probability of insurance, white electricity, banking, infrastructure, cement and other sectors in the fourth quarter exceeded 70%.