1. From the current ratio of Shanghai aluminum to Shanghai aluminum, it has been higher than the normal ratio, and the low price of Shanghai aluminum will encourage importers to import a large amount of primary aluminum for profit, which will also become a force to promote the abnormal price difference between Shanghai aluminum and Shanghai aluminum to return to normal. The ratio of Shanghai aluminum to Shanghai aluminum has fallen back to normal, which provides an opportunity for the cross-market reverse arbitrage of "buying Shanghai aluminum and selling Shanghai aluminum". Although the domestic aluminum price has been lower than the cost, coupled with the influence of the national purchasing, storage and revitalization plan, the market is reluctant to sell and the domestic aluminum price remains high in the short term, but the situation of deteriorating demand has not changed, the shadow of economic recession continues to hang over the world, and a large number of primary aluminum imports and other factors will suppress the domestic aluminum price and restore it to a reasonable position relative to the external market.
2. The aluminum price ratio of the two cities corresponding to the import cost. The import cost of aluminum in China is related to aluminum price, import and export tariffs, exchange rate, trade discount and other factors. Since September last year, the aluminum-aluminum ratio in Shanghai stock market has been on the rise, and it has been constant above the upper limit of 8.275 since 2009, but after reaching a high level of 9. 1, it began to slowly fall back and gradually turned to the normal ratio. When the ratio of the two cities returns to the normal level or close to the normal level, the arbitrageurs can close their positions and make profits.
3. Importing aluminum requires cost and freight, and also pays customs duties. The cost, freight and customs duties of different commodities are different. Moreover, the technology at home and abroad is different, the delivery quality is different, and the factory cost is different. There may also be a commodity, and the main force thinks that it will rise sharply in the future, so it wants to forcibly open a position. At present, aluminum is a big variety, and the possibility of forcing positions is relatively small. From an academic point of view, the futures market has the function of price discovery, and the price discovery function of Shanghai Aluminum may be more sensitive and effective than that of Lun Aluminum.
Before the supply-side reform, the production capacity of electrolytic aluminum expanded in disorder, and the oversupply led to the continuous suppression of aluminum prices; The supply-side reform initially determined the upper limit of China's 45 million tons of production capacity, and the cyclical path of demand increase-price increase-capacity expansion-oversupply-price drop-capacity clearing was broken. Under the background of "carbon neutrality", the management of high-energy electrolytic aluminum industry will be further tightened.
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