In addition, oil prices are also affected by multiple factors, including some market instability factors and the downward adjustment of international oil prices. It is worth noting that at present, the global crude oil supply is abundant, and the oil price will not rise too much, but in the short term, the oil price will still fluctuate upward, mainly in two aspects. On the one hand, the reduction in production led by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and the expected reduction in crude oil supply brought about by US sanctions against Iran and Venezuela are the main supporting factors for current oil prices.
On the other hand, the persistence of trade disputes and the confusion in the process of Britain's withdrawal from the EU have deepened the market's concern about the prospects of global economic growth. Us energy information administration, the International Energy Agency and the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries have recently lowered their expectations for the growth of crude oil demand this year. Under the action of long and short factors, it is expected that oil prices will continue to fluctuate at the current level.
This problem should be explained in two parts. First, the rise in domestic refined oil prices is due to the rise in international crude oil prices, and second, the overall rise and fall caused by the domestic refined oil pricing system.
1. The rise in international crude oil prices is mainly due to three points: 1. The decrease in supply from major crude oil producing countries is mainly due to US sanctions against Iran.
2. The reduction of US crude oil inventories
3. Influenced by the international situation, several major crude oil exporting countries are limited by domestic political or economic reasons and cannot guarantee the production capacity of 100%. The decline in OPEC oil production has exceeded the limit of the production reduction agreement.
The second reason is that the lack of pricing mechanism has led to an overall increase in oil prices.
In the pricing mechanism, the percentage fluctuation is the trigger condition, which will cause the absolute value to rise more and fall less.
For example, if 1: 40 USD falls to 36 USD, it will not be adjusted because it is lower than the reserve price. If it falls again, it will rise. Think about it, this is equivalent to doubling.
Example 2: When crude oil rises from 60 to 63, it meets the 5% increase, and refined oil rises. However, if the crude oil falls from 63 to 60, only by 4.76%, less than 5%, the adjustment of refined oil will be stranded, that is, it will not be adjusted.
In this way, the oil price will never return to the past, and the price will be higher and higher. If the oil price is stable and good, the greater the fluctuation, the higher the oil product.
To sum up, these two factors lead to the rise of domestic refined oil prices.
There is a good joke recently: ten years ago, on March 20, 2008, the international crude oil was 147 USD per barrel, and the domestic oil price was 6.3 yuan; Ten years later, 2065438+May 26th, 2008, the international crude oil price was $75.56 per barrel, while the domestic oil price was 7.4 yuan. The final conclusion is: maybe the bucket is expensive!
Apart from the recent stock market crash, the biggest thing we have suffered is the rise in oil prices. Before the National Day, oil prices ushered in another upward adjustment during the year. Since 24: 00 on September 30th, 20 18, domestic gasoline and diesel prices (standard products, the same below) have increased in 240 yuan and 230 yuan respectively. According to the estimation of 50L capacity of the fuel tank of a general family car, it takes about 9.5 yuan to fill a tank of 92 # gasoline. It is reported that the details of this oil price adjustment are as follows: on the national average, the No.92 gasoline is raised by 0. 19 yuan per liter; No.95 gasoline is raised by 0.20 yuan per liter; No.0 diesel oil is raised by 0.20 yuan per liter.
Although there are many factors that affect oil prices, including the international sanctions imposed by the United States on Iran and the high tax burden on gasoline in China, we find that every liter of gasoline in China has to pay 26.8 1% consumption tax, 14.53% value-added tax, 2.89% urban construction tax and 1.75% corporate income tax.
In other words, even if the international oil price falls, the pressure of our tax revenue still exists, and the only way to solve the tax problem is to increase the price on the people, so you will find that the tax on one liter of gasoline has reached 48.05%! So this is also the most important reason why the oil price drops slightly every time, but the price rises a lot!
According to statistics, since the beginning of this year, China's domestic refined oil prices have experienced 19 rounds of price adjustment, including price increase 12 times, price reduction 6 times, and grounding 1 time. Up to this price adjustment, the ton price of gasoline and diesel oil has been increased by 1.34 yuan and 1.29 yuan respectively. Since 20 18, the price adjustment of domestic refined oil products has shown a pattern of "twelve rises, six falls and one stranded". Up to this price adjustment, the price of gasoline is increased by 1.340 yuan and the price of diesel is increased by 1.290 yuan.
The rise in oil prices has something to do with Russia. /kloc-signed a 25-year, 270-billion-yuan oil agreement in 0/3, which will not change with the rise and fall of oil prices. Converted into a barrel of oil, it is about 100 USD.
At present, the oil price is more than 80 dollars, which is obviously a loss. The oil company raised the tax rate to prevent losses. What is the tax rate of gasoline and diesel in China? 42%! What is the tax rate in the United States now? Over 6: 00%! If the country raises the tax rate to twice that of the United States, the oil price can be reduced by 23%! But obviously not in China.
State-owned enterprises, especially the energy industry, should not be proud of making more money from their own people. They should make little profit or not make money, and the living cost of ordinary people will be reduced, so that the country and people can be safe. You China Petroleum entered the top 500, and your net profit is somewhat embarrassing!
The raw material of gasoline is crude oil. Although our country also mines crude oil, it is not enough. It needs to import a large amount of crude oil from abroad every year, so the price is affected by the rise and fall of international crude oil prices. In fact, most countries in the world need a lot of crude oil in the process of development, but their own production is far from enough. Some countries don't even have crude oil at all and rely entirely on imports. Therefore, apart from the United States, the Russian Federation and a few countries rich in crude oil in the Middle East and South America, China is the demand side of crude oil. The price of crude oil in the global market has gone up, and so has the cost of our imports, so has the price of automobiles, because the price of raw materials has gone up.
Let's look at the trend of this crude oil futures chart. Last April, WTI crude oil futures fell to $6.50 a barrel, and now the price is $79.64 a barrel. Although the futures price is different from the spot price, the gap is not big. It can even be said that the crude oil futures price will soon be the spot price.
The price of crude oil always changes greatly. In 2008, the futures price rose to $65,438+047 per barrel. The dollar more than ten years ago is more valuable than it is now. You can imagine how high the oil price was then.
The biggest reason for the rise in crude oil prices is the shortage of supply.
As mentioned above, there are only a few oil-producing countries. Therefore, in addition to the United States and Russia, several other countries have also set up an organization called the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries to jointly formulate crude oil supply policies and make money together. This organization is an obvious monopoly organization, and no one is in charge of the country, so people dare to play like this.
Every time oil prices fall, the organization will ask member countries to reduce the supply of crude oil to prevent the price from falling. Don't you think the price will naturally go up if there are fewer people selling oil in the market?
Last year, the epidemic ravaged the world, and everyone stayed at home and could not work, which made the economic development of various countries stagnate and the demand for crude oil dropped sharply. This is also the reason why the oil price plummeted last year, and the futures price in April even fell below $0 10 per barrel. At that time, these oil-producing countries lost a lot (in fact, it should be more appropriate to describe that they earned a lot less because their production costs were very low).
For their own interests, OPEC members reached a production reduction agreement, and the number of barrels of crude oil produced every day dropped sharply. On the other hand, this year, the epidemic situation is stable, everyone has come out to work, and the demand for crude oil has suddenly come up. However, these oil-producing countries did not restore their output to the pre-epidemic level, which led to the shortage of crude oil in the market, so the price rose rapidly, even exceeding the pre-epidemic price, hitting a new high in more than six years.
However, OPEC members have begun to gradually increase production. Not long ago, Saudi Arabia and the cartel have been arguing over this matter. Everyone wants to use high oil prices to increase production, sell more and earn more money. When the output comes up, the price will naturally return to a reasonable level, and of course it is impossible to plummet.
International oil price (supply and demand, Middle East war, international game (suppressing Russia and Iran)
Dollar strength
Domestic gasoline label upgrade
Domestic gasoline upgrade (ethanol gasoline)
Two barrels of oil is greedy, nothing else! !
One of the reasons for the rise in oil prices is the turmoil in the oil-producing Middle East. Second, domestic consumption is strong and the tax burden is heavy.
Because our two barrels of oil are still losing money, the profit has not been able to go up, and the boss's annual salary is less than 100 million!