The principal contradiction of any futures contract is different in different time periods from listing to delivery month. It can also be said that the driving logic is different. Therefore, recent months and distant months cannot be treated equally.

Take the iron ore futures of Dashang as an example. At present, the contract trend in recent months is obviously stronger than that in distant months. 09 contract is closer to the spot, take the basis to repair and follow the spot trend. The distant month is more promising, and the market expects that the tight supply of iron ore will be alleviated in the second half of the year.

Moreover, we can't simply pay attention to the temporary relationship between recent months and distant months. I prefer to use the price difference to pay attention to the price changes in recent months and far months. As mentioned above, the core driving logic is different in different months. This is very helpful for our transaction, whether you do unilateral or arbitrage. Understanding the core logic of the market in different time periods will affect your trading decision.

Back to the topic, the rise of far-month contracts is obviously stronger than that of recent months. For example, under a positive market structure, the spot price is lower than the futures contract price in recent months, and the futures contract price in recent months is lower than that in far months. From recent months to distant months, there is a time difference in delivery, and the uncertainty of position cost and premium leads to the high price of distant months.

This positive market structure illustrates a problem, that is, the spot supply is sufficient and the inventory level is high. However, the supply and demand of commodities are also dynamic. The driving logic of near moon and far moon is different. The core driving logic of near month is inventory level, while that of far month is inventory change trend.

If the rising trend of the distant month is obviously stronger than that of the recent month, its internal driving logic is that when the commodity inventory begins to decrease, the market will expect the relationship between supply and demand in the distant month to change. In recent months, it has basically taken shape, and the inventory reduction is also oversupply. Therefore, the rise in distant months will be stronger than that in recent months.