The downward adjustment of retail prices is a foregone conclusion, and the rate of change may continue to deepen negatively.
The retail price limit of domestic refined oil products ushered in a sharp reduction for the first time. The middle of September this year is the seventh working day of the gasoline and diesel price adjustment cycle, and the crude oil change rate calculated by commodity information agencies is negative 9.52%, that is to say, the corresponding gasoline and diesel prices are lowered by 390 yuan per ton. This downward adjustment is the first downward adjustment of domestic refined oil prices since the second half of this year, and the products are analyzed by industry insiders.
At present, the price adjustment window has been opened, and the reduction of retail price limit is a foregone conclusion. The future change rate may continue to deepen negatively, and the floor price protection mechanism may be started again. According to the current domestic refined oil price adjustment mechanism, there is indeed a maximum price and a minimum price. That is to say, when the international oil price is higher than 130 USD per barrel, the retail price of gasoline and diesel cannot be raised or as little as possible, while when the international oil price is lower than 130 USD.
The oversupply of crude oil market affects the price reduction of refined oil.
That is to say, when the international oil price runs normally between 40~ 130 USD per barrel, the domestic refined oil price mechanism can be adjusted normally, and the price will rise as soon as it rises, and the price reduction is unambiguous. After adjusting the window on September 18, the price reduction of domestic refined oil will reach from 420 yuan to 430 yuan per ton, and the specific price reduction will be subject to the detailed rules published by the National Development and Reform Commission.
According to the current pricing cycle, international oil prices will continue to maintain a downward trend. At present, the market is in a situation of oversupply, because the global COVID-19 epidemic is still spreading, the peak driving period in the United States in summer has ended, and other negative factors have led to weak demand for oil in the market. These factors have confirmed that the domestic retail sales of refined oil products will usher in a downward adjustment.
The international oil price is in a position, and the price of refined oil has been lowered many times.
In addition, the monthly report of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries also lowered the global demand for crude oil. Libya ended its blockade and resumed its crude oil export, which was affected in many ways, leading to a continuous decline in international oil prices. In the next few working days, the probability of a sharp rise in international crude oil prices is relatively small, and it can even be said that it should not rise in the near future.
At present, the domestic price of No.95 gasoline is about 6.25 yuan per liter of 6 yuan. After the price adjustment, No.95 gasoline will enter the 5 yuan era. Since the beginning of this year, the retail price limit of domestic refined oil products has experienced 17 price adjustments, with three rises and three falls, and 1 1 ran aground. At present, the international oil price is at a low level, and the domestic refined oil price is stranded.