First, the prices of major commodities will remain high.
(1) crude oil
Since the beginning of this year, especially after the conflict broke out in Libya in mid-February, oil prices have risen sharply. Japan's natural disasters in March triggered market panic and oil prices plummeted. In April, oil prices fluctuated upward. On April 29th, new york oil price closed at 1 13.93 USD per barrel, and London Brent crude oil closed at 125.89 USD per barrel, both hitting high levels in more than two years. By Goldman Sachs bearish remarks and Ben? Affected by the news that bin Laden was killed, oil prices plummeted by more than 8% on May 5. New york oil price fell below the 100 mark in one fell swoop, while London oil price fell to around 1 10. In June, the escalating Greek debt crisis caused the euro to fall, which in turn pushed down the dollar-denominated oil price. It was slightly stable in July and August, and now it has fallen again. Geopolitics, the earthquake in Japan, the Greek debt crisis, the slow recovery of the world economy and speculative funds have become the main reasons. According to the crude oil market report released by the International Energy Agency, the demand for crude oil will increase in the second half of the year due to the peak driving and heating needs. Japan's reconstruction will also boost demand for crude oil, and oil prices are expected to rebound.
(2) Nonferrous metals
Since the beginning of this year, the metal market has been rising first and then falling. February continued the rapid growth momentum of the past two years. The prices of copper, tin, lead and other metals have not only returned to the level before the financial crisis in 2008, but even reached the highest price in history. However, the prices of major metals have been falling all the way since then, and the decline of nickel and zinc has exceeded 10%. Generally speaking, the bullish factors are increasing in the second half of the year. Although the sustainability of economic recovery in Europe and America remains to be seen, the total demand has basically recovered. In the next few years, the foundation for the continuous rise of non-ferrous metals is still not solid, and the macro and potential fatigue of supply and demand are difficult to change, and the metal market will also fluctuate violently.
(3) Agricultural products
At the beginning of this year, global food prices hit record highs. In March this year, the price of wheat, corn, rice and cotton rose by 3.8%, 9.9%, 3.5% and 36.96% respectively. From April to July, due to different degrees of natural disasters around the world, food crops, such as corn and rice, were hit hard and global food prices soared. Since mid-August, the prices of international agricultural products have continued to rise, based on the closing price in August 10. On the following 10 trading day, American soybean, American soybean powder and American soybean oil increased by 6.9 1%, 8. 14% and 5.07% respectively, while American wheat and American corn increased by 8.36% and 7.97% respectively. Judging from the price increase, the increase of soybean flour, wheat and corn is greater than that of soybean, oil and cotton, which indirectly reflects the trend of increasing feed consumption in the emergence stage. From the external factors affecting the price trend of agricultural products, the panic caused by the downgrade of US Treasury bonds began to be gradually released in mid-August, the dollar continued to weaken, and the falling currency price was also the key factor causing the rise of commodity prices. In the context of the continued weak monetary environment, due to the increase in consumption, the general tight inventory at the end of the period and the abundant global liquidity, the international agricultural product prices still have the motivation and demand to continue to rise.
Second, the impact of the US debt and European debt crisis on the global economy.
(a) The debt crisis in the United States and Europe continues to worsen.
In August this year, US President Barack Obama signed a bill to raise the US debt ceiling and reduce the deficit. Then on August 3rd,
Dagong International Credit Rating Co., Ltd. announced on the 3rd that it would downgrade the credit rating of US local and foreign currency countries from A+ to A, with a negative outlook. On August 5th, Standard & Poor's downgraded the US sovereign credit rating.
On June 5438+February, 2009, Fitch downgraded Greece's credit rating from A- to BBB+, with a negative outlook. Then Standard & Poor's downgraded Greece's long-term sovereign credit rating from "A-" to "BBB++". Moody's announced that it would downgrade Greece's sovereign rating from A 1 to A2, with a negative rating outlook.
20 10 on April 23rd, Greece formally applied for assistance from the EU and IMF. 20 10 on may 3, the german cabinet approved a 22.4 billion euro aid plan for Greece. 20 10 may 10
The European Union approved a 750 billion euro Greek aid program. In June 5438+this year 10, Fitch downgraded Greece's sovereign credit rating from BBB- level to BB+ level, and the rating outlook was negative. March 7 this year.
Moody's downgraded the rating of Greek national debt from "BA 1" to "B 1", and the rating prospect is negative. On March 29th, Standard & Poor's downgraded Greece's sovereign credit rating from "BB+" to "BB-". The fourth of July.
Standard & Poor's downgraded Greece's long-term rating from "B" to "CCC", pointing out that the debt-to-equity swap plan may put Greece in a situation of selective default. With the downgrade of Greece, Italy, Spain and other countries in the euro zone have also been involved in the debt credit crisis. On September 19, Standard & Poor's downgraded Italy's long-term sovereign debt rating by one level, from A+ to A, with a negative outlook. Because Italy's total debt exceeds the sum of Greece, Spain, Portugal and Ireland, it is regarded as a country that is "too big to save".
(b) The possible impact of the debts of the United States and Europe
The reason why American debt default has attracted the world's attention is that the global financial system will encounter a major impact and even trigger a world economic recession. Although the default risk of US debt has been temporarily lifted, financial institutions in various countries have breathed a sigh of relief, but the huge debt problem has not disappeared, only because of the increase of the "borrowing ceiling", the scale has become even larger.
In addition to the US debt, the euro zone debt problem will be another "minefield" or even a bigger one to curb global economic growth. Despite the recent rescue of Greece. However, the European debt crisis has not been stopped, and spread to Italy (the third largest economy in the euro zone) and Spain (the fourth largest economy in the euro zone), and may become the "new Lehman Brothers", which will have a more serious impact on the global economy. Therefore, European Commission President Barroso warned that its influence may even exceed that of the euro zone economies.
The manufacturing purchasing managers' index in recent months can show the shadow of the global economic recession. According to the data released one after another, the purchasing managers' index of the Institute of Supply Management dropped from 55.3 in June to 50.9 in July, far below the expected level of 54.9. The final value of the manufacturing purchasing managers' index in the euro zone in July was 50.4; In July, the purchasing managers' index of British manufacturing industry fell below the threshold of 49. 1. In July, the purchasing managers' index of China's manufacturing industry fell to a 29-month low of 50.7%, just one step away from recession.
Although the United States raised the debt ceiling and temporarily avoided debt default, the huge debt problem in Europe and the United States still exists, and the weak housing and employment problems still exist. The lack of confidence of investors and producers, consumers tightening their wallets and the government being forced to cut spending will worsen the global demand situation, weaken the recovery of the world economy, and even lead to the worst situation, that is, a double dip in the global economy.
Third, the recent situation in the international region.
(1) Global hotspots since September.
Since September, the tension in the Middle East and North Africa has not eased with the major turning point of the Libyan war, and the sensitive nerves of all parties have been further tightened. On September 1, the meeting of the International Contact Group on Libya was held in Paris, and the meeting will hold consultations on Libya's post-war arrangements. This shows that the situation in Libya, which has been affecting the nerves of the world for more than half a year, has begun to turn to post-war reconstruction. It is expected that the United States and Europe will increase their pressure on Syria, the "heart of the Middle East", after the war pressure in Libya is eased. On September 16, the United States demanded the immediate evacuation of citizens in Syria. Analysts believe that this decision indicates that the West will take new actions against Syria; The diplomatic crisis between Egypt and Israel, Turkey and Israel, and the diplomatic war of Palestine's "joining the United Nations" followed. America's "middle east steel nail" Israel is facing the pressure of a full-scale diplomatic crisis.
On the evening of September 9, Egyptian protesters stormed and broke into the Israeli embassy in Egypt, and the Israeli ambassador and other senior diplomats returned to China by special plane sent by Israel overnight. The attack on the embassy suddenly strained relations between Egypt and Israel. Whether this bilateral relationship, which has an important influence on the Middle East, will continue to deteriorate is of concern. The shocking incident is actually a reflection of the rising anti-Israel sentiment of the Egyptian people after the former Egyptian President Mubarak stepped down in February. Mubarak maintained bilateral relations with Israel when he was in power, but many people in Egypt opposed this relationship. After the fall of the Mu regime, the anti-Israel sentiment accumulated by the Egyptian people for a long time surfaced, and the attack on Egyptian soldiers stimulated this sentiment.
(B) Global hotspot situation analysis
Libya issue: The United States has adopted a method that wants to manage Libya and does not want to manage it. Because the United States wants to control the European currency, it is hesitant to fight Libya. Of course, European countries hope to make a quick decision to stabilize oil prices.
The Syrian issue: The Syrian issue is actually an arm-wrestling between the United States and Russia, and it seems that it is difficult to win or lose recently. Syria is a very important control point for Russia in the Middle East. Recently, the infiltration of the United States in Syria is quite fierce, and domestic demonstrations are constantly out of control, which is a huge challenge to Russia's interests in the Middle East.
Iran issue: Iran issue is a game relationship among four economies: the United States, the European Union, Russia and China. Basically, it can be seen that the EU is neutral on the surface (essentially leaning towards China and Russia), China and Russia are basically one position, and the United States is another. With the support of China and Russia, Iran will be relatively safe in the future and will be an outpost of China's interests in the Middle East.
Fourth, expert opinion.
Beware of the "resonance" of the US debt crisis in Europe.
Yuxiang Europe Institute, China Institute of Contemporary International Relations
In the current special period when European debt continues to ferment, if there are problems with American debt again, the "resonance" between American debt and European debt will inevitably lead to global systemic risks.
After the European debt crisis, Europe took the policy road of "tight finance and wide currency". In order to boost the American economy, the United States has also launched two rounds of quantitative easing monetary policy. The consequence of excessively loose monetary environment is high global inflation. At this moment, if there is a problem with the US debt, the Fed is bound to regain its easing policy and continue to print money. This will undoubtedly shake the determination of Europe on the other side of the Atlantic to tighten monetary policy. Until recently, the European Central Bank raised its benchmark interest rate twice under inflationary pressure, revealing the trend of tightening monetary policy. The re-implementation of loose monetary policy in the United States and Europe will continue to increase global inflationary pressure, and developing countries will continue to suffer from inflation.
The European debt crisis has seriously affected the credibility of the euro and raised concerns about the possible collapse of the euro. If there is a crisis in US debt, there will be a wave of selling US debt and US dollar assets around the world, and the reputation of the United States and the status of the US dollar will be accelerated. In the short term, international gold and silver prices will continue to strengthen. Because it is difficult to find a better alternative currency, investors' willingness to increase their holdings of the euro will increase, and the exchange rate of the euro against the US dollar may strengthen again. However, in the context of the urgent need to promote exports through price competitiveness, the appreciation of the euro is not conducive to European exports and is not conducive to solving the European debt problem.
American debt, like European debt, will cause huge market volatility when the crisis breaks out. For emerging market countries, the asset shrinkage of the dollar and the euro will be the most direct and huge loss in the short term. But in the long run, opportunities may outweigh challenges. In the long run, the instability of American debt and European debt will damage investors' confidence in the dollar and the euro. A number of currencies of emerging market countries, including RMB, will be favored by the outside world, and the status of emerging market countries as export markets will be paid more attention by Europe and the United States, which will also bring about the improvement of international influence of emerging market countries.
The trend of commodity prices under the impact of European and American debt risks
Ma Zhongpu, Deputy General Manager and Chief Analyst of China Business Network
First, the financial and economic crisis in 2008 triggered by the outbreak of inflation risk was not a cyclical economic crisis, but a financial risk accumulated in several years and the bursting of the inflation bubble.
The rapid development of the world economy for several years in a row has triggered an increase in the demand for bulk commodities. The trend of economic globalization will inevitably lead to the globalization of the market and supply mode of resource bulk products. It will also inevitably form a market speculation of global liquidity funds. The speculative price of virtual economy keeps rising, which pushes up the world inflation. Finally, the financial crisis broke out in the second half of 2008, which hit the world economy hard.
Economic downturn, weakened demand, fund losses, bank bankruptcy. Commodity prices also fell to low points. Developing the potential demand of China countries is still the driving force of economic development. This determines that the bottom of the surplus crisis is a long-term economic depression, while the bottom of the financial and economic crisis, the economy will not be a depression. Low-cost development hides business opportunities. Because the potential demand of developing countries still exists in 2 1 century, with the low commodity prices, low development costs and the implementation of stimulating economic policies in various countries, especially China's economy, the world will soon enter a period of economic recovery.
Second, during the outbreak of the financial and economic crisis, due to low prices, the demand and economic pull vitality was obvious.
The economic policy effect driven by investment in various countries made the world economy recover in the second quarter of 2009, and the demand for commodities also increased. But it also accumulated excess liquidity. During the two years of 2009 and 20 10, when the world economy resumed growth, the madness of speculating commodity prices in the virtual economy far exceeded that in 2008. Although the world economy is still recovering, many commodity prices are even close to the price level in mid-2008. In the past two years, with the economic recovery, almost all commodity prices have entered the stage of price increase, which is also the stage of accelerated accumulation of inflation risks in the inflation economic cycle.
In the period of world economic recovery, pushing up inflation has become an important content and form in the operation of the world economy. Moreover, the seriousness of the inflationary economic situation of speculative commodity prices with excess liquidity has dominated the current world economic operation to a considerable extent. During the two-year economic recovery period, because the root cause of inflation has not been solved, the world has once again entered a period of rising inflationary pressure due to rising prices. The trend of commodity prices in this period is very similar. Despite the constant shocks, the basic trend follows the general trend of rising prices during the period of rising inflation. Their differences only reflect the balance between supply and demand under inflation. Such as metallic copper and aluminum; Steel and iron ore; China and international steel price trend difference. Obviously, under the situation of inflationary economy, it is not only the balance between supply and demand that affects the price trend of commodity market, but also the staged evolution trend of inflationary economy.
The high prices of resource commodities such as iron ore, copper and oil will inevitably lead to a new round of structural price increases. The world is once again caught in high inflationary pressure. In order to control inflation, many governments have to tighten fiscal expenditure, control liquidity and further slow down economic growth. The government's efforts to control inflation are essentially a game between the world economy and inflation at the expense of development speed. China's economic growth has slowed down, and many developing countries and western countries are in trouble.
Third, after experiencing the accumulation of high inflation risks, economic growth slowed down and commodity prices fluctuated at a high level. The game between inflation and economic weakness in the world economy has entered a dynamic equilibrium.
Since 20 1 1, the actual feature of commodity price trend in the fragile equilibrium stage is the price fluctuation for several months in a row. Speculating on commodity price futures is very risky in this period. This is also the economic root of the recent losses of some large funds, the increase in international financial and debt risks, and the intensification of international social turmoil.
Due to the slowdown of the world economy, the European and American economies are weak, the demand is weakened, and international trade protectionism is on the rise. Some industries have overcapacity, and many industries with high raw material costs are in danger of meager profits and losses.
Fourth, the basic situation of economic weakness determines the favorable price fluctuation period, and the long-term basic characteristics of price trend are high prices and repeated price fluctuations.
The rising commodity prices under the inflation situation for two consecutive years and the quantitative easing financial policy of the United States from last year (165438+ 10) to the beginning of this year have once again pushed up global inflation and iron ore costs and stimulated the rise of steel prices at home and abroad. At present, under the pressure of persistent high inflation, commodity prices are already at a high level, and there are many risks of further increase. Although international inflationary pressure is increasing, commodity prices have fallen into a stage of ups and downs. During this period, industrial and trade enterprises will be hard to extricate themselves if they are in danger of losing money.
In the period of high inflation, every round of price increase in the stage of high price fluctuation will generate new inflationary pressure, which will further weaken the economy. As a result, commodity prices fluctuate downward. This is also the fundamental reason for the repeated ups and downs of prices. Especially for resource products with more price bubbles, the price fluctuates frequently and even shows a downward trend in stages. For example, the market prices of iron ore and copper showed a downward trend some time ago. In the first three months, international copper futures fell by $200 for five consecutive days. This inflation risk has impacted the economic trend and aggravated the debt crisis in Europe. In particular, there have been frequent debt crises in Italy and Europe recently. In addition to the rebound in gold prices, US stocks and oil prices both fell. It reflects the risk evolution trend of this round of inflation economic cycle in the stage of high price shock. The current economic situation of inflation and the hopeless trend of high price fluctuation are actually another important realistic manifestation of the serious economic situation of inflation bubble.
Verb (abbreviation of verb) Outlook of major economies in the world
(a) The United States may continue to maintain a low level of growth.
The risks of economic growth in the United States in the second half of the year mainly come from two aspects: First, the high unemployment rate may weaken the consumption power of residents. In this recovery, residents' consumption has always been the main contribution to economic growth, and the decline of consumption power will inevitably affect the overall recovery situation. Second, expansionary fiscal and monetary policies will gradually shrink. The second round of "quantitative easing" monetary policy ended as scheduled at the end of June, and the US government and Congress are trying to cut fiscal expenditure to balance the budget. In addition, the struggle between the government and Congress on the national debt ceiling will also have an impact on the confidence of the financial market and the real economy. At present, the only positive factor is that the oil price has dropped to a certain extent from the previous high point, which has eased the inflationary pressure and improved the consumption power of residents, which is conducive to the growth of the United States in the second half of the year. It is estimated that the growth rate of 20 1 1 in the United States is about 2%-2.5%, which is obviously lower than 20 10.
According to the current growth rate of new jobs in the United States, it is predicted that the unemployment rate in the United States will remain above 8.5% by the end of the year, and may remain above 7.5% by the end of 20 12, far higher than the normal level. In order to maintain economic growth, the United States may continue to maintain a relatively loose monetary policy.
(2) It is difficult for the EU to get out of the predicament in the short term due to the debt crisis.
The EU still maintains a slow growth momentum. Among them, Germany's economic performance is outstanding, and the unemployment rate has hit a new low since the reunification, which continues to be the locomotive driving the economic growth of Europe as a whole. Countries caught in sovereign debt crisis can hardly maintain positive growth, which leads financial markets to question their solvency and the risk of debt default rises again. The European sovereign debt problem will be a long-term problem that puzzles the European economy and even the world economic recovery, but it should not evolve into a financial crisis like the collapse of Lehman Brothers in 2008. It is estimated that the EU growth rate will still reach about11year .5%.
(C) Japan's economy is gradually recovering
20 1 1 At the beginning of the year, the market generally expected that 20 1 1 Japan's economy would perform well. However, the earthquake and tsunami temporarily interrupted the industrial production in the affected areas, and the nuclear leakage incident further affected Japan's domestic consumption and investment confidence. Since the fourth quarter of 20 10, Japan's economy has experienced negative growth for three consecutive quarters. Strictly speaking, it is in recession again. However, with the gradual fading of the impact of the earthquake and tsunami and the loose fiscal and monetary policies adopted by the Japanese government to maintain economic growth, it is expected that the rebound will be relatively strong in the second half of the year and it is possible to achieve positive growth throughout the year. The impact of the earthquake in Japan on the global economy is mainly reflected in the supply chain, especially in automobile, steel, electronics and other industries. For example, the production of some automobile enterprises in the United States and China has been affected by the reduction or interruption of the supply of Japanese-made parts. Generally speaking, the earthquake in Japan may make the global economic growth rate slightly lower than originally expected, but it will not affect the general trend of world economic recovery.
(d) Emerging economies will continue to maintain rapid growth.
At present, the growth speed and momentum of emerging economies have returned to the normal state before the crisis. The rise in commodity prices has promoted the economic growth of resource and energy exporting countries, and the foreign exchange income obtained by these countries has returned to other emerging economies and developing countries through expanding imports and foreign investment. Emerging economies have once again shown an all-round growth trend before the financial crisis broke out. It is estimated that the growth rate of 20 1 1 emerging economies and developing countries will reach about 6%, which is lower than 20 10, but still significantly higher than that of developed economies.