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Reading Notes on Out of Fantasy and Towards Maturity
This book was written by the author in 2009, when he missed the first big bull market because he was doing futures. But the handwriting is very good. This is an introductory book on stocks, and it feels good.

The pursuit of certainty comes from the pursuit of perfection. Even if you know that this perfection is unrealistic, you can't let people give up their pursuit. More people are willing to cover their ears to deal with the inevitable imperfections in the real world.

Chapter 1: The Road of Traders

What he advocates is the trend tracking strategy, that is, to achieve profit by reducing the correct rate and trying and making mistakes many times. Trend tracking often appears when the ceiling is bought and the floor is sold. Buy at point B and sell at point S, but how many people can persist? Stick to it for a few years and you will definitely earn a lot of wealth. This road is full of bumps and thorns, and the master has made various mistakes on this road.

Chapter two: Concept explanation.

This chapter mainly introduces various principles and concepts. The purpose is to tell us that it is completely wrong to operate stocks in an instinctive way. There are all kinds of shortcomings in our instinct. We must avoid it rationally. Wealth is the feedback of psychological pain.

1. iceberg principle: we can't know the whole picture of things, and we can interpret them in the direction we want with great probability (1 1.3). All kinds of people thought it might fall, and the boss suggested clearing the warehouse. But in fact, it has not fallen below the trend, just on the trend line, which is a good opportunity to enter the market. Don't look at what happened before, just retreat to the vicinity of antenna 20 and you can go in. There is no essential difference from top to bottom. )

Chapter III: Basic analysis.

If you hold shares for less than 2 years, you don't have to talk about fundamental analysis. Value restoration is inevitable, but how long are you willing to wait?

Value investment does not mean "taking advantage". Value investment is not to buy good stocks, or even stocks that will get better, but to buy stocks that are better than the public expects.

If you can't get information that the public can't know, and you don't have distinctive values, then basic analysis will always be a self-deception scam for you.

According to Lynch, if three of the ten stocks in your hand are big winners, they can make up for one or two losses and six or seven mediocre stocks. For Buffett, there is another principle, that is, no more than 25% of the funds of his partnership company are used for one-time investment. From this perspective, the master of basic analysis relies on dispersion to prevent risks.

Chapter Four: Technical Analysis

You must combine buying, holding and selling into a ring. Even so, there is no effective trading strategy, so we have to form a chain by these countless rings. Whether a person trades well depends on his trading chain.

Since there is no way to be responsible for a single transaction, technical analysis can only be used many times to realize its value. Using technical analysis many times is equivalent to forming a trading system.

According to my experience for more than ten years, at the end of the bull market, the lower the price, the smaller the increase and the faster the decline.

In my opinion, the key to profit from using the system is not the quality of the system, but the spiritual realm of the users. Sometimes I really feel that the profit of trading comes entirely from the compensation of mental torture.

The profit rate is determined by three factors: correct rate, odds and operating period. The method with high correct rate is definitely not a good method. On the contrary, the higher the correct rate, the easier it is to die.

Using news to verify the strength of the market is very effective in individual stocks. Its core idea is: should not fall, should be bullish; Whether it should go up or not, it should be bearish.

Chapter 5: Insect carving skills.

Theory of stock market stratification: absolute bull market-shift-relative bull market-absolute bear market-shift-relative bear market-shift-absolute bull market

Conclusion: In an absolute bull market, we can make use of plate rotation to pursue profit maximization, and even wait for weak stocks to make up. At this time, the key to profit is to hold shares patiently. Pay close attention to the stocks that refuse to adjust during the bull market conversion. Usually, although the index is falling, the market will be lively. In a relatively bull market, we should dare to buy stocks with high prices and huge gains, and completely abandon the thinking of compensatory growth.

Compared with the bull market that needs to make money, the stocks with the biggest increase are those that retail investors dare not buy.

There are usually strong reasons for being strong, and stocks that are stronger than the market will usually continue to be stronger than the market.

Whether it is a bull market or a bear market, 80% of the stocks are usually weaker than the broader market, while 20% of the stocks are far stronger than the broader market. And these 20% stocks are much stronger than the broader market, which is exactly the stocks you dare not buy.

Absolutely abandon the bargain-hunting stock selection strategy! ! ! !

New shares and ex-dividend are market magnifiers. New shares listed at the bottom of the market, as well as ex-dividend shares, will usually increase more than the market in the future; The future decline of new shares and ex-dividend stocks listed at the top of the market is usually greater than the market.

Buying index funds can ensure that your income is in sync with the broader market, which is better than the actual record of most traders. Trading is an art of "giving up". When you give up the dark horse of profiteering, then you also avoid the risk of being weaker than the market.