In addition, on Tuesday, Bush will publish a national consultation document. Although the White House has revealed that the ink spot is mainly the war situation in Iraq, it is estimated that Bush will provide more information about the economic revitalization plan, but the market is not sure whether Bush's tax rebate plan will be reflected in the consumption level. Mainly because the beneficiaries are mostly upper-middle class families rather than low-income people. Therefore, if the former only uses the tax refund income to repay the arrears, it will not have any effect on stimulating consumption, nor will it be the purpose of revitalizing the economy promoted by George W. Bush. As for encouraging commercial enterprises to invest and develop employment opportunities, it may not be successful, because the current business environment in the United States has plummeted, and commercial enterprises are not necessarily willing to increase capital investment and increase manpower. Moreover, the whole tax rebate plan will not be implemented until May at the earliest. In the case that far water can't put out a near fire, once the market rejects the plan, US stocks will be dragged down again, and the yen will benefit. In view of this, the economic announcement before the Fed's interest rate meeting, the decision of the interest rate meeting and the statement after the meeting, as well as Bush's State of the Union address, can make the exchange rate fluctuate greatly at any time.
Finally, the employment data and ISM Supply Association index released by the United States on Friday help to evaluate whether the American economy is close to recession or has fallen into recession. At the same time, I believe that the market will also compare these objective economic news with the Fed's subjective interest rate statement to measure whether the Fed's policy choices have fallen behind the current economic performance and are not enough to affect the future economic trend. In addition, MasterCard and Vantone will announce their results this week, in which the market is most concerned about bad debts of consumer credit to assess whether the subprime mortgage crisis has spread to other consumption levels. The reason is that many big American banks are suffering from subprime investment losses. Therefore, if even consumer credit such as credit cards and automobile mortgage have the same problems, these financial institutions will only make more substantial provisions. At that time, the inter-bank credit market may shrink further, and major banks will naturally tighten the money supply because they cannot assess their own or other peers' capital adequacy ratio and write-off degree. Although the Fed's repeated interest rate cuts may not help, the problem is exactly a replica of Japan's financial industry in the 1990s. At that time, even if the daily interest rate was as low as zero, it could not stimulate credit growth. Therefore, it is expected that this week's foreign exchange trend will still be dominated by US stocks, and the rise and fall of the latter will be determined by economic announcements, Federal Reserve interest rate discussions, Bush's State of the Union address and the performance of credit card companies.
Luo Ou
* Since 16/ 12/07 broke through an ascending channel, its trend gradually brewed a big double-top potential in the weekly chart, with the neckline of1.4308 (HKD1.1.
* The weekly chart random pointer falls back after creating a market decline signal.
* Since 29/ 10 last year, the axial position of Zhoutu Baolijia Waterway has not been completely lost (HKD 1 1.335).
* After three consecutive days of promotion last week, it softened on Friday.
* For tweezers in the first two trading days, see top1.4776/79 (HKD11.538/40).
* The overbought area of stochastic indicators on the daily chart is intended to create a signal of market decline.
* The neckline of the head, shoulder and top of the Japanese chart1.4513 (HKD11.333) is not suspected to be broken for the time being.
* The 7-day moving average broke the 55-day moving average, and the 14 and 20-day moving averages are brewing a market decline.
Outlook:
Since 22/7/07, the euro has been building up along the rising channel, but since 16/ 12/07 turned around, the euro has been "suspended" for two weeks in the middle of 65438+ 10, from 14 to/kloc-. Last week, there was a "high wave line" in its exchange rate, which meant that it could not be held, but its amplitude was limited to1.4358 (HKD11.2) to1.4824 (HKD/kloc-. Because it has not lost its axis 1.45 16 (HKD daily chart shows that after three trading days, the euro finally fell back last Friday, breaking through the support areas of 14 and the 20-day moving average. At the same time, the random pointer is brewing the market decline signal, and the 7-day moving average breaks the 55-day moving average, which is beneficial to its short-term direction, especially the limit of last Thursday and Friday1.4776/79 (HKD165438). Therefore, the downside risk is greater, and it remains to be seen whether the euro will fall toward the head, shoulders and neck line1.4513 (HKD11.333) in front of the daily chart this week.
Support: 7-day and 55-day moving averages1.4632/51(HKD1.426/40), 24/ 1/08 and1.4589.
1 1.392), the head, shoulder, top and neck line before the daily chart1.4513 (HKD11.333).
Resistance: 78.6% adjust the forceps tip1.4776/79 (HKD11.538/40) and15/108 to 22//kloc-0.
Bit1.4806 (HKD11.561), high bit1.4824 (HKD11.576).
Dollar against Japanese yen
* Last week, I received the crosshairs.
* Since 29/4 last year, it has softened along a large descending channel.
* The weekly stochastic indicator oversold area creates a signal of rising market, but the relative strength indicator is opposite.
* The 55-week moving average tends to move down, pushing it to the 100 moving average.
* The weekly high in the first five weeks is lower than that in the previous week.
* Since10108, the flag-raising pattern has been fluctuating on the daily chart.
* Daily chart random indicators are neutral.
* Friday's increase is not enough to adjust the dollar from the 38.2% decline of 27/ 12/07 to 23/ 1/08.
Outlook:
Since 29/4/07, the dollar has been trapped in a large downward channel, and the trend direction is naturally not optimistic. At the same time, the highs in the first five weeks all softened in a pattern of decreasing week by week. Last week, the "low cross" was closed, and the 55-week moving average was forced to the 100 moving average, weakening its long-term direction. Therefore, it is expected that the downside risk of the US dollar is still high, which is believed to help consolidate the support. As long as it can be further amplified from the previous week's high point 107.89(HKD 7.238), on the daily chart, the US dollar has been stuck in the flag-raising form from10/08, and the frame is106.
Support: Flag base 106.39(HKD 7.340), last Thursday's low 105.95438+0 (HKD 7.373), and now it's last week.
The initial clamp bottom support is 105.65 (HKD 7.95438+0).
Resistance: 14 moving average 107.39(HKD 7.27 1), the peak of the previous trading day 107.89(HKD 7.238), and the flag peak.
108. 13(HKD 7.222)
pound
* Last week, it broke through the 100 weekly moving average and then turned around and rebounded.
* 14 week moving average is lower than 20 week moving average.
* Weekly stochastic indicators are strong.
* The first two trading days were high, closing at the top of the last triangle that lasted for 14 days.
* The stochastic indicators of the daily chart are strong, and MACD cattle are backward.
* On the 7th, it broke the 14 moving average online.
* recapture the central axis of Polaroid Channel.
* Friday's "star" outlook:
The pound rebounded last week, with a moving average of 100 weeks. Weekly stochastic indicators are strong again, but 14 and 20 weeks are linear death cross signals, which weakens the enlightenment of other strong technical signals, so unless the increase can be further promoted to111/07 to 27/1/07. On the daily chart, the stochastic indicator is strong and the MACD is slightly opposite. In addition, it has closed above the last triangle consolidation pattern for two consecutive days, which proves that the pound has officially broken the framework. However, after closing the positive line last Thursday, it closed on the "star" on Friday, indicating that there is a struggle between the long and short sides. It remains to be seen whether the pound can continue its rally (HKD 1.9735+05) at the end of last Friday.
Support: Late last Friday1.9736 (HKD15.411) and Polaroid Channel 1.9665(HKD)
15.356), 7 and 14 moving average support area1.9629/46 (hkd15.328/41)
Resistance: 2/ 1/08 top 1.9896(HKD 15.536), 27/ 12/07 high1.9965 (HKD1.
28/ 12/07 maximum 2.0022(HKD 15.634)
Dollar against Swiss franc
* Support between 1.0836/45(HKD 7.206/00) for two weeks in a row, forming a clamp bottom support.
* closed the "high wave line" for two weeks in a row.
* The random pointer on the weekly chart initially shows the rising signal.
* The daily chart shows a double bottom trend.
* After falling for three days in a row, it rebounded last Friday.
* unable to break the historical low of 1.0836(HKD 7.206).
* The stochastic indicators of the daily chart create a rising signal at a low level.
* The first 20 days were below the 14 moving average.
Outlook:
The weekly chart was supported by a clamp at 1.0832/45(HKD 7.209/00) and failed at a record low of 1.0836(HKD 7.206) for two consecutive weeks. Therefore, it is believed that the US dollar will be adjusted, and this week it will have the opportunity to challenge the 7-week moving average 1.65438+. On the daily chart, the low positions of1116/08 and 1.0845(HKD 7.200) at 24//08 are double bottom potentials, and the neckline points to 22/60. At the same time, the stochastic indicators are strong, and it is expected that the US dollar will be adjusted before hitting a record low, thus expanding the decline from 25/ 12/07 to 16/ 1/08.
Support: 1.0900(HKD 7. 164) psychological position,1.0861(hkd7.190) at the end of the previous two trading days.
1.0845(HKD 7.200)
Resistance: Last Friday, at the top 1.0989(HKD 7. 106), 23.6% of the adjustment position was 1. 1025(HKD 7.083), and the strength was reserved.
The axis position of the newly added channel is 1. 1039(HKD 7.074).
AUD
* The weekly chart is a "high wave line"
* DI+ and DI- lines are reported as 19.
* For two consecutive weeks, the market closed at a low level below the central axis of the weekly Baolijia channel.
* It is higher than a trend line formed by the series connection of 65438+ 10 in late June and 10 in mid-October last year.
* The random pointer on the weekly chart shows the initial selling signal.
* Last Friday, the market closed in a weak form similar to a meteor.
* After rising for three consecutive days, it softened on Friday and fell below the 100 moving average.
* From 15/ 1/08 to 22/ 1/08, the decrease is less than 6 1.8%.
*MACD bull runs backwards.
* Stochastic indicators continue to be strong and move to overbought areas.
* From 17/8/07, we continue to fall into the triangle.
Outlook:
The upward trend of the Australian dollar seems to be weak. This week's trend is not optimistic, until we can regain the axis position of 0.8865(HKD 6.922) of the weekly Baolijia Passage, otherwise, once we lose the support of 0.8770(HKD 6.848), the decline in the market outlook will increase. As for the daily chart, the Australian dollar is still unable to recover the upper limit of the consolidation area before the last V-shaped rebound of 0.8880(HKD 6.934). MACD was blocked by an ascending channel starting from 18/ 12/07 this morning, so it is not appropriate for it to fall below the short-term support of 0.8746(HKD 6.829) to avoid it. It means that the bottom has affordability, so it is expected that the Australian dollar will struggle at 0.8746(HKD 6.829), but generally speaking, as the 100 moving average of 0.8828(HKD 6.893) has fallen, and the test retracement at 0.8880(HKD 6.934) is too weak, it is believed that the downside risk ratio of the Australian dollar will greatly increase, and the market outlook will depend on.
Support level: trend 0.8746(HKD 6.829), last Thursday's end 0.8690(HKD 6.786), last Wednesday.
0.8609(HKD 6.722)
Resistance: the moving average of 100 is 0.8728(HKD 6.8 15), and the peak value last Friday was 0.8853(HKD 6.9 13),17//08.
Height 0.8880(HKD 6.934)
gold price
* Weekly stochastic indicators are weak in overbought areas.
* In the past six weeks, the high level has risen in a cascade manner.
* Gold is overbought.
* Breaking through the roof of Polaroid Channel for two weeks in a row.
* Last Friday, the "High Cross" closed.
* Daily chart stochastic indicators remain strong in overbought areas.
*MACD bear runs backwards
Outlook:
Gold prices are bearish this week. The reason is that its increase has broken the top of the Polaroid channel in the past two weeks, so it is not easy to repeat this strength this week. Moreover, the price of gold has been overbought. Therefore, it is expected that the top of Polaroid Channel (HK$ 8,602) will not be broken this week. As for its trend at the beginning of the week, it is not optimistic, and it is expected that the price of gold will be adjusted.
Support level: US$ 908.00 (HK$ 8,447) at the end of last Friday, and the 7-day moving average was US$ 895.40 (HK$ 8,330).
14 Average $891.95 (HK$ 8,298)
Resistance: a record high of $923.40 (HK$ 8,590) and psychological position of $930.00 (HK$ 8,652).
T. Exchange rate = 7.8086
Last week, the foreign exchange market fluctuated, and the US dollar index fluctuated in the range of 75.6 1/77.07, closing at 75.93. Generally speaking, last week, except for the existing home sales data of 65438+February, there were almost no important economic data released in the United States, but the Federal Reserve suddenly lowered the discount rate and the federal funds rate, giving the market a shot in the arm. At the same time, the stock market picked up, and the non-American market also rose to varying degrees. After the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 75 basis points, the Bank of Canada cut interest rates by 25 basis points, while the European Central Bank and the Bank of England made tough remarks at different times last week, saying that they would not cut interest rates sharply, thus causing the dollar to suffer heavy losses in the second half of the week. As for whether the Fed will cut interest rates again at the end of the month, the foreign exchange market is still holding a wait-and-see attitude, which depends on the market's reaction to the sudden rate cut by the Fed and the performance of some important economic data released by the United States during this period, such as this week's US non-farm payrolls report, ISM manufacturing index and other important economic data will determine the future performance of the US dollar.
EUR/USD: Last week, the highest was 1.4778, the lowest was 1.4364, and closed at 1.4670. Fundamentally, the news that Societe Generale suffered huge losses once made the market think that the economy of the euro zone was also affected by subprime mortgage. However, the remarks of important officials in the euro zone show that the ECB is now considering the issue of sustained growth or persistently high inflation. Therefore, it is estimated that the ECB will not cut interest rates rashly in the short term, and will continue to pay attention to the inflation data released by the euro zone in the future, which is the basis for the ECB's monetary policy decision. Technically, the euro closed above the 30-day moving average against the US dollar. It is expected that the short-term sharp decline probability is small, and the interval operation is the main one. Short-term resistance concern 1.4850, support concern1.4511.4480.
GBP/USD: Last week, the highest was 1.9849, the lowest was 1.9336, and closed at 1.98 18. Although the market expects the Bank of England to continue to cut interest rates, the Bank of England's statement last week showed us that the Bank of England will not take drastic measures to cut interest rates. Comparatively speaking, it is basically beneficial to the pound. Technically, 1.9330' s long-term falling target has been touched, and the short-term rebound market is more obvious. After breaking through the resistance of the 30-day moving average 1.9700, it closed above 1.98, and the market outlook is expected to hit the integer mark of 2.000, supporting the concern of 1.9700.
USD/JPY: Last week, the highest was 107.88, the lowest was 104.95, and closed at 106.85438+0. Last week, the performance of the stock market once again influenced the trend of the yen, and the performance of the yen was also ups and downs. The exchange rate once fell below the key support of 105.00. The yen fell due to concerns about the intervention of the Bank of Japan. In addition, the news that the Bank of Japan cut interest rates during the year is constantly coming from the market, and the risk of holding yen in the short term is gradually increasing. Technically, it is expected that the exchange rate will rebound in the short term, with the target position near 109 and the support attention near 105.60.
AUD/USD: Last week, the highest was 0.8853, and the lowest was 0.85 12, closing at 0.8803. Last week, despite comments from major central banks, the Reserve Bank of Australia did not make a statement. However, the regional economy is still strong, coupled with the attraction of high interest rates and the rise of commodities such as gold and oil, the Australian dollar is still the darling of the market. Technically, breaking through the resistance near the 30-day moving average of 0.8770, the market outlook is likely to rise, with the target at 0.8900/0.9000 and the support at 0.8650.
USD/CAD: Last week, the highest was 1.0378, and the lowest was 1.00 15, closing at 1.0070. Technically, the exchange rate has rebounded and also declined. Currently wandering around the 30th, paying attention to the support of 1.0000. If this position is not broken, the exchange rate still tends to rise, and the resistance is concerned with 1.0240.
USD/CHF: Last week, the highest was1.122, and the lowest was 1.0846, closing at 1.0972. Technically, it is more likely that the exchange rate will bottom out in the short term, but it does not rule out the possibility that the market outlook will hit a new low again. Resistance 1. 1350, support concern 1.0838.
Gold: The international gold price reached the highest of 923.30 and 849 last week, closing at 9 13.60. Technically, there was a round of downward adjustment last week, but the support around the 30-day moving average of 850 is still strong. At present, the previous high point has been refreshed again, and the upward trend of the market outlook remains unchanged. Short-term resistance focuses on 930.00 and support focuses on 880.00.