According to Yuan Gangming's prediction, if the government does not take effective policy measures, it is estimated that the inflation rate will reach 10% or more this year. If the price of refined oil is liberalized, the inflation rate of 10% may be beyond doubt.
According to general research and analysis, if the international oil price rises 10 USD/barrel, the price index will rise by 0.46%, which will cause obvious inflationary pressure.
After 1998, the price of crude oil in China began to connect with the international market, and the price of refined oil in China kept a certain linkage with the international market. The rise of international crude oil price directly affects the domestic crude oil price level, which will increase the production cost of crude oil processing enterprises and make downstream enterprises face greater price increase pressure.
In addition, according to the substitution principle in economics, the rise of crude oil price will also drive the price of alternative energy sources such as coal to rise, causing a wider range of price increases. If the prices of other commodities rise due to rising oil prices, the possibility that structural inflation will evolve into full-scale inflation will greatly increase.
Or the "crux" of the stock market downturn
China Academy of Social Sciences issued a report saying that the persistently high oil price will reduce the investment and financing ability of the stock market. Research shows that the rise in energy prices will cause a reverse reaction to the stock market for as long as five months. From the departmental level, the price increase has a great impact on industries closely related to gamblers, such as petrochemical, transportation and logistics, automobile, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, paper printing, etc., which obviously reduces the investment and financing ability of these enterprises in the stock market.
As a basic energy source, the rising price of petroleum will inevitably lead to an increase in production costs, a decrease in the expected profits of listed companies, a decrease in share prices and a decrease in investment in the capital market.