If soldiers want to win in the war, they should not only be equipped with well-equipped weapons, but also cultivate an excellent ability to kill the enemy. Similarly, when trading gold, investors should not only have accurate information sources, but also master the beneficial weapon of technical analysis. Technical analysis originated from statistics, which can help us find the best intervention price in the market. It is a supplement to basic analysis and an indispensable analytical tool.
Technical analysis is based on the daily price fluctuation in the market, including the daily opening price, closing price, highest price, lowest price, turnover and other digital data, and expresses these data through charts, so as to predict the future price trend. Every analytical method will not be perfect. We can neither rely too much on technical analysis nor be biased towards fundamental analysis. Theoretically, after the basic analysis, we can use technical analysis to capture the ups and downs of every gold market, buy low and sell high, so as to earn more profits. Moreover, technical analysis is an objective analysis method based on mathematical statistical equations, which is very logical. It filters the subjective opinions of investors and is much more stable than analysts who rely on personal feelings.
Technical analysis studies the past price and trading volume data, and then predicts the future price trend. This type of analysis focuses on the composition of charts and formulas to capture major and minor trends and identify buying/selling opportunities by estimating the length of the market cycle. Depending on the time span you choose, you can use daily (every 5 minutes, every 15 minutes, every hour) technical analysis, or weekly or monthly technical analysis.
Basic theory of technical analysis
1, Dow Jones theory
Basic points:
Dow theory is mainly used in the stock market, but like other technical analysis theories, it can also be applied to various investment markets after appropriate adjustments according to the different characteristics of different markets.
According to Dow theory, there are three trends in stock price movement, the most important of which is the basic trend of stock, that is, the broad or comprehensive fluctuation of stock price. This change usually lasts for a year or more, and the total increase (decrease) of the stock price exceeds 20%. For investors, the basic trend continues to rise to form a long market, and continues to fall to form a short market.
The second trend of stock price movement is called the second trend of stock price. Because the secondary trend is often opposite to the basic trend and has a certain inhibitory effect on it, it is also called the correction trend of stock price. This trend varies from three weeks to several months, and its share price generally rises or falls by 65438+ 0/3 or 2/3 of the basic trend of the share price. The third trend of stock price movement is called short-term trend, which reflects the change of stock price in a few days. A revised trend usually consists of three or more short-term trends.
Among the three trends, long-term investors are most concerned about the basic trend of stock prices, with the aim of buying as many stocks as possible in the bull market and selling them in time before the short market is formed. Speculators are more interested in the correction trend of stock prices. Their purpose is to make short-term profits from it. Short-term trend is not very important, easy to be manipulated, and inconvenient to be the object of trend analysis. People generally can't manipulate the basic trend and correction trend of stock prices, and only the national financial department can make limited adjustments.
Basic trends:
That is, from a big perspective, the change of ups and downs. Among them, as long as the next rising level exceeds the previous high point. And the bottom of each secondary decline is higher than the bottom of the previous decline, then the main trend is upward. This is the so-called bull market On the contrary, when every intermediate decline brings the price to a lower level, and the subsequent rebound can't bring the price to the previous high point, the main trend is to fall, which is called a short market. Usually (at least in theory), the main trend is the only goal that long-term investors consider among the three trends. The way to do this is to buy stocks as soon as possible during the bull market. As long as he can be sure that the bull market has started, he will hold it until he is sure that the short market has formed. They will not pay attention to all the secondary declines and short-term changes in the whole megatrend. Of course, the second change is a very important opportunity for people who do regular transactions.
Secondary trend:
It is a reverse market that moves against the main trend and interferes with the main trend. In the bull market, it is the intermediate decline or "adjustment" of the market; In the short market, it is an intermediate rising or rebounding market. Usually in a bull market, it will fall by one-third to two-thirds of the rising part of the main trend. However, it should be noted that the principle of one-third to two-thirds is not immutable. Just a brief explanation of the probability. Most secondary trends fluctuate within this range. Most of them stopped very close to the middle point. Fall back to 50% of the original main increase: this decline is less than one third, and some have almost reduced the previous increase. Therefore, we have two criteria to judge a secondary trend. Any market that goes against the main trend usually lasts for at least three weeks. The main trend has gone up 1/3. However, apart from this standard, secondary trends are usually chaotic. Its confirmation, correct evaluation of its development and summary of its whole process have always been a difficult problem in theoretical description.
Short-term change
They are short-lived fluctuations. Rarely more than three weeks, usually less than six days. Although they are meaningless in themselves, they make the whole process of megatrends full of mysterious and changeable colors. Usually, the main trend part, whether it is a secondary trend or two secondary trends, is composed of a series of three or more distinguishable short-term changes. The inferences drawn from these short-term changes can easily lead to the wrong direction. In a mature stock market, short-term changes are the only ones that can be "manipulated". However, megatrends and megatrends cannot be manipulated.
The above three trends of stock market volatility are very similar to the trend of waves. In the stock market, the main trend is like the whole process of every rise (fall) of the tide. Among them, the bull market is like a high tide, and waves keep hitting the coast until it finally reaches the highest point marked. And then gradually recede. The ebb tide can be compared with the short market. During the high tide, the water level of each subsequent wave rises more than that of the previous wave and recedes less than that of the previous wave, so that the water level gradually rises. At low tide, each next wave is lower than the previous wave, and the latter wave cannot recover the height reached by the previous wave. These waves at high tide (low tide) are like a secondary trend. Similarly, the surface of seawater is covered with microwave ripples, which are insignificant daily changes compared with the short-term changes in the market. Tides, waves and ripples represent major trends, minor trends and short-term changes in the market.
2. Eliot's wave theory
Eliot scholars classify price trends through fixed wave patterns. These models can represent future indicators and reversals. The wave moving in the same direction as the trend is called push wave, and the wave moving in the opposite direction is called correction wave. Eliot's wave theory divides push wave and correction wave into five kinds and three main trends respectively. These eight trends constitute a complete wave cycle. The time span ranges from 15 minutes to decades.
The challenge of Eliot's wave theory is that 1 wave period can be composed of eight sub-wave periods, and these waves can be further divided into push waves and correction waves. Therefore, the key of Eliot's wave theory is to be able to identify the environment in which a specific wave is located. Eliot also used Fibonacci's anti-galloping phenomenon to predict the peaks and valleys of future wave periods.
Wave theory, like any technical analysis tool, needs to be combined with other analysis tools to verify each other. For example, analyze the fundamentals to judge the long-term trend and the possible continuation cycle of the trend. In the gold market, according to our experience, wave theory is more effective than short-term trend in the application of long-term trend. Basically, we think it is meaningless to analyze short-term trends with wave theory, such as the period of hourly charts. We use wave theory to analyze the historical trend of gold for investors' reference.
The following figure is the analysis chart we made in mid-July 2006. Anyone who is familiar with the historical trend of gold will know that the first gold bull market started at 1968, and the price of gold rose from $35 at 1980 to $850, which lasted for 12 years. During this period, the annual income from investing in gold is 30%. This round of bull market, as a super bull market of a larger level, is a big rise.
Since June1980+1October 2 1 gold price hit a record high of $850, due to the return of value and the selling by the central bank, the price of gold has experienced a bear market for 20 years, and the lowest price dropped to $252 per ounce on August 25 1999. This big bear market is the second big wave adjustment of the last big bull market (indicated by II in the figure).
At present, the price of gold starts from $65,438+$0.999252, with three waves rising. In the next at least 10 years, the gold market will continue this round of large-scale bull market, and the historical highest price of 1980850 USD/ounce will be easily surpassed, and the gold price will rise to a high level that most people can't predict. As the rising wave of (1), the rising trend from 200 1 low of $252 to the high of $730 in May 2006 is a complete five-wave structure.
K line theory
Introduction:
K-line, also known as yin-yang line, bar line, red and black line or candle line, originated from the rice market transaction in Tokugawa shogunate era in Japan. After more than 200 years of evolution, it has been widely used in the technical analysis of the securities market and has become one of the most basic methods in technical analysis, thus forming a technical analysis method with complete form and analysis theory.
K-line is generally divided into daily K-line, weekly K-line, monthly K-line and minute K-line according to different calculation units. Its formation depends on four data in each calculation unit, namely: opening price, highest price, lowest price and closing price. When the opening price is lower than the closing price, the K line is the positive line (generally in red); When the opening price is higher than the closing price, the K line is the negative line; When the opening price is equal to the closing price, the K line is called a cross star. When the K line is the positive line, the thin line between the highest price and the closing price is called the upper shadow line, the thin line between the lowest price and the opening price is called the lower shadow line, and the column between the opening price and the closing price is called the entity.
Because the drawing of K-line contains four basic data, we can judge the length of trading time from the type of K-line. When the opening price is equal to the lowest price and the closing price is equal to the highest price, the K line is called the bald Dayang line, indicating a strong rebound; When the opening price is equal to the highest price and the closing price is equal to the lowest price, the K line is called the big yinxian line, indicating that the exchange rate plummeted; When the opening price is equal to the closing price, and the upper shadow line is equivalent to the lower shadow line, the K-line is called the big cross star, indicating that the competition between long and short positions is fierce and evenly matched, and the market outlook often changes. When the cross star appears in a relatively high position on the K-line chart, it is called the sunset star; When the cross star appears at a relatively low position on the K-line chart, it is called the morning star. The comprehensive K-line type represents the difference of long and short power, with the cross star as the balance point, the positive line is dominant, the positive line is the strongest, the negative line is dominant, and the big negative line is the strongest. It should be noted that when investors look at the K-line, a single K-line is of little significance, but it is meaningful to compare it with the previous K-line.
Anti-transformation state (medium and long-term type):
A single K-line can reflect the change of price strength in a single day, but it can't accurately reflect the trend of price change in a period of time. Then, for the price changes in a period of time, we no longer judge by the shadow line of the K line, but by the medium-and long-term form formed after the connection of the K line. The long-term basic types of K-line are: head and shoulder top type (head and shoulder top, head and shoulder bottom); Double top (m head); Double bottom (W bottom), arc bottom (top) shape, etc.
The previous gold futures standard contract
Draft for comments on the standard contract of gold futures of Shanghai Futures Exchange
Trading variety gold
Trading unit1000g/hand
Quotation unit (RMB)/gram
The lowest change price is 0.0 1 yuan/gram.
The maximum fluctuation range of daily price shall not exceed 5% of the settlement price of the previous trading day.
The contract delivery month is1-65438+February.
Trading time: 9: 00 am-165438+0: 30 pm:1:30 pm.
15 on the last trading day of the contract delivery month (postponed in case of legal holidays)
Delivery date: five consecutive working days after the last trading day.
The delivery grade meets the national standard GB/T4 134-2003, and the gold content is not less than 99.95%.
Delivery place: delivery warehouse designated by the exchange.
7% of the minimum trading margin contract value
The transaction fee shall not be higher than two ten thousandths of the transaction amount (including risk reserve).
Delivery method physical delivery
Transaction code AU
Listed Exchange Shanghai Futures Exchange
Shanghai Futures Exchange Gold Futures Standard Contract Attachment
I. Delivery unit
The trading unit of the gold standard contract is 300 grams per lot, and the delivery unit is 3000 grams per warehouse receipt. Delivery must be an integer multiple of each warehouse receipt.
Second, the quality regulations
(1) The gold used in the physical delivery of this contract must meet the national standard GB/T4 134-2003, in which the gold content is not less than 99.95%.
(2) Appearance and block weight. The gold delivered shall be ingots, each weighing1000g or 3000g.
(3) The overflow of each warehouse receipt shall not exceed 1%, and the increase or decrease clause of each ingot shall not exceed 0.1g..
(4) The gold of each warehouse receipt must consist of the same commodity with the same manufacturer, brand, registered trademark, quality grade and shape.
(5) The gold in each warehouse receipt must be a registered brand recognized by the Exchange and must be accompanied by a quality certificate issued by the manufacturer.
(6) The warehouse receipt shall be issued by the delivery warehouse designated by this Exchange after passing the inspection.
Three. Production enterprises and registered brands recognized by the Exchange.
Gold used for physical delivery must be a brand registered by the exchange. The specific registered brands and premium standards shall be separately stipulated and published by the Exchange.
4. Designated delivery warehouse
Designated by the exchange and announced separately, the premium standard for warehouses delivered in different places shall be stipulated and announced by the exchange.