But ordinary consumers are inherently insensitive to the prices of such raw materials, or they don't need to be sensitive. Everyone just wants to know, is it possible that the price of lithium carbonate, which was reported by many media before, will fall back after experiencing the "step-by-step rise" caused by the price increase of raw materials in the early stage?
The answer is naturally yes! And now there is a trend of price reduction.
What effect does lithium carbonate have on car price?
Lithium carbonate is one of the important raw materials for the production of lithium batteries, and its dosage is still quite large. Therefore, the fluctuation of lithium carbonate price will inevitably lead to the change of battery production cost, and then affect the cost and selling price of new energy vehicles.
From 202 1 to 2022, we experienced the skyrocketing price of this new energy vehicle. At that time, the sales of new energy vehicles grew rapidly, and the demand for lithium carbonate in the industry was also rising. However, there were not many lithium mines at that time, and it took time to increase the number of mines, which led to the shortage of lithium carbonate at that time and the corresponding price was also rising.
Especially during the epidemic, the production capacity and transportation capacity in the middle reaches were greatly limited, and foreign lithium resources could not reach China quickly. Coupled with the influence of economic anti-globalization, domestic and foreign capitals want to take the opportunity to make money, further pushing up the market price of lithium carbonate.
Therefore, we can see that the price of lithium carbonate has soared from 76,000 yuan/ton at the end of 2020 to 470,000 yuan/ton at the end of 202/kloc-0, and the price has soared to six times. At the end of 2022, the price of lithium carbonate continued to approach 600,000 yuan/ton, nearly 8 times that of the same period two years ago.
During this period, many domestic new energy vehicle companies announced the price increase of their models. For example, the entry price of Tesla Model 3 rose from 249,900 yuan in June 2020 to 279,900 yuan in March 2022, and the price of Tesla Model Y long-life version also rose from 347,900 yuan and 5438+0 in March 2026 to 394,900 yuan in June 2022. In addition, BYD, Ai 'an, Weilai and other car companies also announced that due to the rising prices of raw materials, they have raised the prices of their models.
Production facilities of Tianqi lithium industry in Australia
However, after entering 2023, with the acceleration of the release of lithium mines in the upstream (such as lithium mines in Australia and Argentina), the rapid expansion of battery and material enterprises in the midstream led to overcapacity, and the sales volume in the downstream new energy vehicle market fell short of expectations. Tesla began a price war, which led to an oversupply of lithium carbonate at this time.
As a result, the price of lithium carbonate plummeted. As of April 4th, the price of industrial-grade lithium carbonate was 210.6 million yuan/ton, and the price of battery-grade lithium carbonate was 224,000 yuan/ton, which was about 57% lower than that at the beginning of this year. Wang Jun, chairman of Funeng Technology, said that according to this year's form, the price of lithium carbonate will further decline, and it is not impossible to reach below 6,543,800 yuan.
After the skyrocketing and plunging, the price of lithium carbonate is unpredictable, and it can even be said to be as exciting as a "ten-ring roller coaster".
Of course, the sharp drop in the price of lithium carbonate is of practical benefit to consumers, at least it will drive down the cost of batteries and the selling price of automobile terminals.
How much can plummeting lithium carbonate save us?
The price of lithium carbonate mainly affects the cost of batteries. Let's see how much money can be saved by different types of batteries. Because the process of lithium iron phosphate battery is different from ternary lithium battery, ternary lithium battery mostly uses lithium hydroxide, but for the convenience of calculation, we still convert it into lithium carbonate. Generally speaking, 1GWh lithium iron phosphate battery needs about 630 tons of lithium carbonate, and 1GWh ternary lithium battery needs 68 1 ton of lithium carbonate. After unit conversion, it can be concluded that 1kWh lithium iron phosphate battery needs 0.63kg lithium carbonate, and 1kWh ternary lithium battery needs 0.68 1kg.
Let's take the battery pack of Model Y long battery life version, Songjia DM-i 1 10km version and Seal 700km version as examples. The types and capacities of batteries they carry are shown in the above picture. According to the price difference between April this year and the end of last year, the cost of Model Y battery decreased by 20,000 yuan, Song plus DM-i decreased by 4,300 yuan, and Seal decreased by 654.38+0.95 million yuan.
This is a real cost reduction, so we can see that some car companies have given a certain degree of terminal concessions in the name of subsidies, which is definitely a good thing for consumers.
Do I have to wait to buy a car? Or is it just rush?
We should discuss this problem separately. The decline in the price of raw materials will inevitably reduce the cost of car companies, so the price of whole vehicles will indeed fall.
For brands that have achieved profitability or want to increase sales, they can simultaneously reduce the price of models to improve their competitiveness and obtain higher sales. For example, Tesla, if the cost of raw materials continues to decline, according to Tesla's practice, the price will also be lowered simultaneously. If your candidate car happens to be the car that these brands pursue sales, then you might as well wait.
However, some car companies are still at a loss. For example, new car companies such as Weilai, Ideality and Tucki should take advantage of the decline in raw material costs to improve their profitability. At the same time, to some extent, they don't need to exaggerate quickly, so the price of their newly listed models should not fluctuate too much. So if you want to buy Tucki P7i, Ideal L8 and Weilai ES7, and you are in a hurry to use the car, it's not a big problem to rush directly now.
The editor said: The price drop of lithium carbonate seems exaggerated this time, but to some extent, it is only gradually returning to its due price. In fact, not only the price of lithium carbonate, but also the problem of "lack of core" mentioned in the previous two years has been basically solved. The decline in the prices of various raw materials and spare parts has gradually restored the price of automobiles to a normal level, even lower than in the past. For car companies, this is an opportunity to improve profitability. For ordinary consumers, this means that we can save 65,438+0,000 yuan or more in car purchase costs. In any case, consumers who bought cars in 2023 have already won at the starting line.
This article comes from the author's new car review, and the copyright belongs to the author. Please contact the author in any form. The content only represents the author's point of view and has nothing to do with the car reform.