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Why did the financial tsunami come and the price changed so much?
Your analysis is good, in fact, it is a matter of time and trend. The current economic deterioration will lead to a sharp drop in external demand, and at the same time, the price of steel and coal will fall in the future.

But then you got confused. It is because of inflation that the economy has deteriorated, that is, it is such a process. At first, the price was very low, and then it gradually rose. We call it inflation. It is not inflation that leads to price increase, but price increase is a sign of inflation.

When CPI begins to decline, but PPI keeps rising, the economy begins to enter recession, because the decline of CPI indicates that the total demand begins to shrink, while the rise of PPI indicates that the expansion of economic scale has been restricted by upstream industries or resources.

At present, the global economy is facing a downturn, external demand will be greatly reduced, and international commodity prices are at a high level, which will lead to the deterioration of corporate profitability, and the decline in profitability will lead to the weakening of the ability to digest PPI; Secondly, at present, China's total demand growth is stable, the relationship between supply and demand is generally balanced, and the competition in the end product market is fierce. From the perspective of total demand alone, it is difficult to quickly transmit the price increase of means of production driven by the price increase of resource products to the price of consumer goods. However, with the appreciation of RMB, the price of raw materials, the price of labor and the cost of social environment, the profitability of enterprises has deteriorated in recent two or three years, which has led some enterprises in some industries to face two choices-losing money or raising prices to maintain profitability. Enterprise losses will eventually lead to the closure of enterprises, which in turn will lead to changes in the employment situation of the whole society. Rising prices will increase the pressure on PPI and CPI.

At present, the global economy has entered the channel of accelerating recession, which will reduce the demand for resources, lead to the trend decline of commodity prices with obvious price elasticity, and the future pressure of domestic PPI will also be alleviated. In the early stage, domestic oil prices were rationalized, and the transmission to PPI was relatively rapid, but after two months, the transmission to PPI would gradually decline. At the same time, international commodities have fallen rapidly. Therefore, PPI will have an inflection point and a downward trend in the next two months. At this time, economic growth and corporate profit growth will enter the worst period in this economic cycle.

The deterioration of the economy, if you want to say within six months, is relatively unclear, and we don't need to compare it within six months, because everyone knows that it will definitely rise in the future. Within half a year, it depends on whether the merchants can carry it. I hope that prices will continue to fall, and then more steel producers will quit. After a period of time, prices will rise, and the pricing power of monopoly oligarchs will be greater than before. This is a living example now. Let's look at Goldman Sachs raising pigs. Now, it is to buy the whole chain of pig farms. At present, the price of pork is controlled by the state macro-control, but the price can't go up, and the professional households still feel a loss because of state subsidies. Then, even if the price of pork decreases in the future, those small professional pig farmers will be eliminated. For example, when 5 yuan dropped to 4 yuan, a group of pig farmers stopped raising pigs and waited for time to walk slowly. Later, Goldman Sachs became the dominant company, and it gained the pricing power of the market. It says that 5 yuan is in 5 yuan and 4 yuan is in 4 yuan. Because it has pricing power, we see that once the price of a commodity market is not determined by the relationship between supply and demand, but by a company or an alliance, then no matter whether the manufacturer is losing money or making profits now, it will still earn it back in the future. So we say that in the long run, prices will go up. This is true, but in the short term, there are too many influencing factors.