At the beginning of August, domestic commodity futures ushered in a "good start", and most varieties of non-ferrous plates rose sharply, which was particularly eye-catching. As of the close of August 1, Shanghai nickel and Shanghai tin futures rose by over 6% and 4% respectively. So today, Bian Xiao is here to sort out the relevant knowledge of nickel price for everyone. Let's have a look!
Nonferrous metals made a "good start" in August. Can the strong lead of nickel price continue?
On the external market, in August, 1, nickel soared once after opening, with the biggest intraday increase approaching 6%, hitting a one-month high of $25,200/ton, but suddenly plunged in the evening and once fell below 1%.
Looking at the leading nickel varieties, according to the news of foreign media in August 1, Indonesia will issue the "Regulations on Nickel Export Tax" in the third quarter, and it is planned to levy export taxes on nickel, pig iron and ferronickel. This policy is conducive to increasing Indonesia's export income and encouraging Indonesia to produce more high value-added products at home. At present, there are no details about the tax rates of nickel pig iron and nickel iron.
It can be seen that since mid-July, the price of nickel has rebounded rapidly by about 30%. The reason is that Zhou Weigang, an analyst at the jinrui futures Research Institute, believes that there are three main points: First, the price repair of excessive trading of macro pessimism, especially the "hawks" of the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting in July fell short of expectations, and the market experienced emotional reversal; Second, after the rapid decline of nickel price, the industry increased its replenishment efforts, and the social inventory was rapidly consumed, which amplified the contradiction of nickel plate resource shortage; Third, there have been many good news in the market recently, including the US plan to restart the tram tax credit policy and Indonesia's adjustment of nickel tariff policy.
The Nonferrous Group of Zijin Tianfeng Futures Research Institute said that the strong rebound of nickel price in this round belongs to the previous oversold, which ushered in the marginal repair of macro-sentiment, and the absolutely low social inventory in electrolytic nickel contributed to the situation. The revision of macro expectations is the main reason to stimulate the rebound of nickel price. Fundamentally speaking, this round of strong rebound of nickel price is not because of the prominent contradiction between supply and demand of nickel, but because the social inventory of domestic pure nickel is always at an absolute low level under the condition of slightly weak supply and demand, which is conducive to the strong rebound of nickel price.
Zhou Weigang believes that this round of nickel price rebound is more of an emotional overreaction to the structural shortage of nickel plates. It should be noted that at present, in addition to the shortage of nickel plate resources, ferronickel has been surplus, nickel beans are loose, and the supply of new energy intermediate products is sufficient. At the same time, from the demand side, the demand for grade I nickel in stainless steel and new energy is limited. At present, the output of stainless steel is low, and the demand for new energy is still in the recovery stage.
In his view, the rapid rebound of nickel prices is bound to be resisted by the industry, and it is difficult for the spot side to effectively support high prices. At the same time, with the continuous contribution of Indonesian new production capacity, secondary nickel will increase the discount to electrolytic nickel, dragging down the nickel price. Therefore, he believes that the price increase of nickel in the afternoon is limited, and maintains the view that the price of nickel rebounded to180,000 yuan/ton. He suggested that in view of the contradiction between the shortage of spot nickel deliverable resources and high positions in recent months, it is recommended to short the far-month contract on rallies.
"In the short term, in the context of the current macro-sentiment rebound and the domestic pure nickel social inventory is always at an absolute low level, we are not sure that the absolute price of nickel will rebound in this round, but the pattern of strong near-end and weak far-end is relatively clear." The colored group of Zijin Tianfeng Futures Research Institute said.
International oil prices plummeted, and oil distribution fell below the 100 USD/barrel mark.
On the first trading day of August, the international oil price plummeted, with the main contract of WTI crude oil futures falling by more than 6% and Brent crude oil futures falling by more than 4%, once falling below the integer mark of 100 USD/barrel. As of the close of the day, the main contract of WTI crude oil futures closed at $93.89/barrel, down 4.80%; The main contract of Brent crude oil futures closed at 100.03 USD/barrel, down by 3.79%.
According to foreign media reports, under the pressure of the international community to curb the rise in oil prices, Saudi Arabia's crude oil exports soared to the highest level since April 2020. Oil tanker tracking data collected by the agency showed that Saudi Arabia's maritime transportation volume reached about 7.5 million barrels per day last month, and the revised data in June was 6.6 million barrels per day. Saudi officials have not commented on this.
Libya's oil minister said that the country's oil production has recovered to 654.38+200,000 barrels per day. Last month, the country announced that it would fully resume production activities in all oil-producing areas, and the daily output would be restored to 3 million barrels in the near future.
According to CCTV news, the new Secretary-General of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), Huisum Gass, told the outside world on July 3 1 local time that there is no competitive relationship between OPEC and Russia, and Russia's position in the OPEC+mechanism is "crucial".
In an exclusive interview published in Kuwait's Viewpoint on the same day, Huisume Gass said that Russia's crude oil output is about 6.5438+million barrels per day, accounting for 654.38+00% of the global output, which means that "of the 654.38+00 barrels of oil produced every day, 654.38+0 barrels of oil come from Russia", so Russia is in the global energy map. This role is not only reflected in the oil field, but also in the mineral fields such as natural gas and coal.
Huysum Gass further stressed that there is no competitive relationship between the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and Russia, and Russia is "crucial" for reaching an agreement within the OPEC+mechanism.
Huysum Gass also said that his first task as Secretary-General of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries is to strengthen the constructive dialogue between the organization and non-OPEC oil producing and consuming countries, and to resolve the differences between the parties in order to maintain the stability of the global oil market.
Huysum Gass officially became the Secretary-General of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries on August 1, and will host the OPEC+Ministerial Meeting for the first time on August 3, which will decide the oil production of countries in the mechanism in September.
What are the leading nickel resource concept stocks?
Huayou Cobalt 603799:
Huayou Cobalt's share price rose by 4.92% in recent 30 days, with the highest price of 108.9 yuan and the lowest price of 89.5 yuan. At present, the market value15465438+29 million yuan, and the stock price fell by -8.49% in 2022.
The report for the first quarter of 2022 shows that the company's total operating income1321200 million yuan, net profit11900,000 yuan, earnings per share of 0.99 yuan and price-earnings ratio of 27.97.
The 60,000-ton wet production line in Kazuki Watanabe musician has been successfully put into production, and 45,000 tons of lithium battery upstream integration leader will be added in the future.
Meg 002340:
In the past 30 trading days, the growth enterprise market rose 17 days, during which the overall increase was 16.79%, with the highest of 9.63 yuan and the lowest of 7.48 yuan. Compared with 30 trading days ago, the market value of Grammy rose by 7.367 billion yuan, or 16.79%.
Nickel resources leading stock, the first quarter report in 2022 shows that the company's revenue is about 6.967 billion yuan, an increase of 86.78%; The net profit was about 3,654,380,800 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.23%; The basic earnings per share is 0.07 yuan.
Signed a nickel resource agreement with the subsidiary of South Korea's ECOPRO in Indonesia to supply high-nickel precursors to MOU from 2023 to 2026.
Qingdao mid-range 300208:
In the past 30 trading days, Qingdao rose moderately by 18 days, during which the overall increase was 19.7%, with the highest price 14.5 yuan and the lowest price 10.34 yuan. Compared with 30 trading days ago, the medium-range market value of Qingdao has increased by 654.38+98.6 million yuan, up by 654.38+09.7%.
The quarterly report in the first quarter of 2022 shows that the company's revenue is about 654.38+34 billion yuan, up by-56.14% year-on-year; The net profit was about-59,965,438+0.26 million yuan, up-65,438+0.6.18% year-on-year; Basic earnings per share -0.08 yuan.
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