Annual national rate, resident rate, government rate, resident rate, non-financial industry, financial industry.
1992 40.3 3 1. 1 3 1.0 52.3 14.6 30.5 2.5
1993 4 1.7 29.9 32.4 46.3 15.0 36.0 2.8
1994 42.7 32.6 29.0 50.3 12.2 35.4 2. 1
1995 4 1.6 30.0 29.6 48.2 1 1.7 38.3 1.8
1996 40.3 30.8 3 1.7 52.9 13.5 3 1.4 2.2
1997 40.8 30.5 32.3 50.9 13.8 34.3 1.0
1998 40.0 29.9 30.0 5 1.0 13.2 34.3 1.5
1999 38.6 27.6 3 1.0 48.0 14.9 35.6 1.4
2000 38.5 25.5 32.5 42.8 16.5 39. 1 1.5
200 1 38.9 25.4 35.9 4 1.6 19.5 38.2 0.8
Source: 1999-2004 China Statistical Yearbook Cash Flow Statement (physical transaction).
Requirements:
Based on the above data, this paper analyzes the changes of savings structure and points out the main reasons for maintaining a high savings rate.
[This post was edited by the author on May 22nd, 2006 17: 0 1: 05]
-
-Author: sz-kzg
-Date of issue: 20 May 2006, 23: 06: 02.
-Reasons for the high savings rate in China (Kang Zhiguo's answer)
Savings = disposable income-consumption expenditure
National savings = national disposable income-total consumption expenditure (including household consumption and government consumption)
Savings are divided into four parts, namely, residents' savings, government savings, non-financial savings and financial savings.
Household savings = per capita disposable income-household consumption expenditure
Government savings = government disposable income-government consumption expenditure
Among them, the savings of non-financial industries and financial industries are equal to their disposable income respectively.
National savings (total savings) is the sum of the above four savings.
1. As can be seen from the table, China's national savings rate has remained at a high level of around 40% since 10.
From 10, the proportion of residents' savings in national savings (total savings) decreased from 52.3% in 1992 to 4 1.6% in 200 10. At the same time, the proportion of non-financial and government savings in national savings has been rising, increasing by 7.7 and 4.9 percentage points respectively. Therefore, the reason why China's national savings rate remains at a high level is not entirely because of the high household savings rate, but because of the continuous growth of non-financial industries and government savings.
Reasons for the growth of government savings: the disposable income of the government increases with the increase of tax revenue and treasury revenue, and the daily expenditure of the government decreases due to the reform of government institutions. As can be seen from the table, since 1998, with the deepening of institutional reform, the government savings rate has increased from 30% to 35.9% of 200 1, and the rising government savings rate has increased the proportion of government savings in national savings from 1998 13.2% to 200/kloc.
Because the disposable income of non-financial industries is all included in national savings (total savings), its proportion in national savings has also reached a high level. This is mainly due to the improvement of the overall economic environment in China and the improvement of the overall efficiency of enterprises.
Second, although the proportion of national savings in total savings has declined, the household savings rate has remained at a high level.
This is in line with China's national conditions.
1. Due to the imperfection of the domestic pension and medical system and the increasing expenditure on education, residents must maintain a high level of preventive savings to maintain their basic livelihood and solve the problem of providing for their children and the future.
2. Narrow domestic investment channels also limit residents' investment.
3. 80% of China Bank's savings are concentrated in the hands of 20% of the wealthy class, whose consumption is saturated, so the current policy cannot stimulate the sustained growth of consumption.
Therefore, the government should adjust the national income to the residents, further improve the minimum wage guarantee system, increase the transfer payment and solve the residents' worries.
-
-Author: SZ- Jiang Weimin
-Release date: May 23, 2006 2 1: 13: 10
-
Macro-economic case analysis
draw
Basic concepts:
Savings refers to the part of disposable income that deducts consumption; Savings = disposable income-consumption
National savings refers to the difference between national disposable income and total consumption; National savings = national disposable income-total consumption
Government savings refers to the difference between government disposable income and its consumption; Government savings = government disposable income-government consumption
Household savings refers to the difference between per capita disposable income and its consumption; Household savings = per capita disposable income-household consumption
National savings is the sum of household savings, government savings, disposable income of non-financial enterprises and financial enterprises.
Savings rate =( 1- consumption expenditure/disposable income) * 100%
analyse
According to the given data, this paper analyzes the changes of savings structure and points out the main reasons for maintaining a high savings rate.
1) changes in savings structure
As can be seen from the above data, in the past ten years, due to the rapid improvement of urbanization level in China, the household savings rate showed an obvious downward trend, while the household savings.
The proportion in national savings has dropped from 52.3% in 1992 to 410.6% in 200/kloc-0, a sharp drop of more than ten percentage points. At the same time, the government is saving in the country.
The proportion of savings offices is on the rise, from 1992 14.6% to 200 1 19.5%, and the corresponding government savings rate is 200 1 to 35.9%.
Compared with 3 1% of 1992, it increased by 4.9 percentage points, and it was slightly softer during 1994 and 1995, about 29%. The proportion of non-financial enterprise savings in national savings also changes from
30.5% in 1992 rose to 38.2% in 200 1, an increase of 7.7 percentage points. It can be seen that during the ten years from 1992 to 200 1, although household savings are declining,
However, due to the rapid growth of government and enterprise savings, the national savings rate has remained at a high level of around 40%.
2) The main reason for the high savings rate
1. The high savings rate is related to China's traditional culture, social structure, family values and many other factors. The current social security system is not perfect enough, which makes residents afraid to spend money.
A large number of "precautionary savings" have emerged.
2. At present, maintaining a high savings rate in China can provide a lot of funds for economic growth; More importantly, a steady stream of funds ensures the flow of financial institutions.
Liquidity enhances the stability of banks.
3. The elasticity of China's capital output, the expected form of wages, the higher subjective discount rate and risk aversion of China residents, and the higher economic growth rate lead to China's reserves.
An important reason why the storage rate remains at a high level.
Jiang May 23, 2006
-
-Author: sz-glj
-Date of issue: May 24, 2006, 9: 3 1: 22
-
Macro-economic case analysis
basic concept
National savings = national disposable income-total consumption expenditure = household savings+government savings+financial savings+non-financial savings.
Household savings = per capita disposable income-household consumption expenditure
Government savings = government disposable income-government expenditure
Financial industry savings = disposable income of financial industry
Non-financial savings = non-financial disposable income (i.e. corporate deposits, retained earnings, etc.). )
Changes in savings structure
As can be seen from the above data, during the recent 10 years from 1992 to 200 1 year, China's national savings rate remained at a high level of nearly 40%, and the overall proportion of household savings in national savings decreased from 52.3% in 1992 to 4/kloc-0. Accordingly, the proportion of government savings offices rose from 14.6% in 1992 to19.5,5438+0 in 2006, an increase of nearly 5 percentage points, and the savings of non-financial enterprises also accounted for 38.2% of the national savings, which was significantly higher than 1992. It can be seen that during the period from 1992 to 200 1 10, the household savings rate has been declining, while the government savings and non-financial savings have been rising, resulting in a national savings rate of about 40%.
cause analysis
(1) The social security system is not perfect. Expenditure on old-age care, medical insurance and education has increased residents' expected expenditure, leading to "expected savings" and "passive savings", which are the main reasons for the high savings of Chinese residents.
(2) Insufficient investment channels. The downturn of the direct capital market, especially the stock market, leads to the lack of enthusiasm of residents for investment, and the direct financing market cannot effectively divert a large amount of savings funds.
(3) In the case of a substantial increase in tax revenue, the government's public expenditure is seriously insufficient. A large amount of infrastructure expenditure has crowded out the expenditure in education, health and other fields, resulting in the public sector can only seek private fund-raising.
(4) The middle class cannot be formed, and social wealth is in the hands of a few people. The consumption of the wealthy class is saturated.
Gao 2006-5-24
-
-Author: sz-lhaifeng
-Release date: May 24, 2006 16: 0 1: 50.
-
Macroeconomics Case (Liu Haifeng)
First, national savings = government savings+private savings.
Private savings = enterprise savings+personal savings (household savings)
Personal savings = disposable personal income-personal expenditure
Government savings = government disposable income-government expenditure
(1) As can be seen from the above formula and the data given in table 1, the average government savings rate is 14.49%, and the private savings rate is 85.5 1%. Among the private savings rates, the average personal savings rate is 48.44%, and the corporate savings rate is 37.07%.
(2) The national savings rate is decreasing from 1992 to 200 1, and the difference between the highest and lowest is 4.2%; The household savings rate is decreasing from 1992 to 200 1, and the difference between the highest and lowest is 7.2%. The government savings rate is on the rise from 1992 to 200 1, and the difference between the highest and lowest is 7.8%. From 1992 to 200 1, the corporate savings rate showed an overall upward trend, with a difference of 7.6% between the highest and lowest for non-financial enterprises and a downward trend for financial enterprises, with a difference of 2% between the highest and lowest.
-
-Author: sz-lhaifeng
-Date of issue: May 24, 2006 16: 03: 35.
-
Macroeconomics Case (Liu Haifeng)
(3) From a national perspective, overall savings remain at a high level of 40%. Mainly private savings account for 85%. Although household savings are on the decline, the average savings rate is still at a high level of 48%, and the average corporate savings rate is on the rise, which leads to a high national savings rate.
First, the specific reasons for high savings
(1) When the government has a budget surplus, it will save. Due to the reorganization of government agencies, layoffs and retrenchment over the years, government savings are on the rise.
(2) Although residents' savings show a downward trend, it still remains high in the overall savings, which is related to China's own national conditions. China's economic growth rate ranks among the top in the world, but it has a large population of 654.38+0.3 billion and 800 million in rural areas. The social security of these residents has not been solved. Secondly, China people have always been cautious, so most of their income is used for savings.
(3) According to the analysis of macroeconomic theory, the lower the interest rate, the less savings, but China's savings are still high, mainly due to the stock market downturn in recent years, and the relevant policies are still being further improved. The low rate of return on other financial investments is also the reason for the high national savings.
(4) The gap between the rich and the poor is widening, the social security system is not perfect, the education expenditure is getting higher and higher, and the commercialization price of housing is getting higher and higher. Unpredictable market risks force savings to increase, which is also the reason for the high national savings.
Therefore, through the above analysis, the state should speed up the improvement of the social security system, control excessive housing prices as soon as possible, increase residents' income, control the unemployment rate and create new employment growth points.
-
-Author: SZ-lihb
-Date of issue: May 25th, 2006 15: 55: 35.
-
Case study of macroeconomics
Basic economic concept
National savings = national disposable income-total consumption expenditure
Household savings = per capita disposable income-household consumption expenditure
Government savings = government disposable income-government expenditure
Savings rate =( 1- consumption expenditure/disposable income) * 100%
Data structure change
As can be seen from the data in the table, although China's national savings rate has declined slightly, it still maintains a high proportion, basically maintaining around 40%. The household savings rate dropped slightly, from 3 1. 1% in192 to 25.4% in 0 1 year, but the government savings rate rose from 3 1% to 35.9%. From the perspective of the proportion of savings, residents' savings and financial savings are declining, while the proportion of government savings and non-financial savings is gradually increasing.
Analysis of specific reasons
The reasons why China's savings rate continues to maintain a high level are as follows:
1) the traditional consumption habit of thrifty housekeeping; The gap between the rich and the poor has widened, and most of the savings are concentrated in the hands of a few people; The national social security system is not perfect, and the expected expenditure pressure of residents such as medical care and old-age care is great; Education, housing and other current living expenses are under great pressure, residents have a strong awareness of saving prevention, and the household savings rate remains at a high level.
3) With the continuous growth of government finance, foreign exchange reserves are increasing year by year. On the other hand, the government's investment in social security and education is on the side. Generally, in countries with mature market economy, the input of social security accounts for more than 35% of fiscal revenue, while our government only accounts for about 12%. The increase of disposable income and the low expenditure keep government savings at a high level.
4) The proportion of private enterprises in the national economic structure is increasing, but their financing channels are narrow, the bank support is insufficient, and it is relatively difficult to apply for loans, which makes them accumulate profits through operation and invest more in expanding production reserves in the future, leading to an increase in non-financial savings.
5) Compared with foreign developed countries, the domestic financial market lacks investment products, which makes the investment channels narrow and the savings rate high.
Excessive savings will inevitably lead to the reduction of domestic capital flowing to investment, which will lead to insufficient total social demand and a decline in total output. While we are trying to attract foreign investment, a large amount of domestic capital is idle, resulting in a low investment rate. To change the current situation of excessive savings, the government should curb the excessive rise in education and housing prices, increase the average income of residents and narrow the gap between the rich and the poor; Improve the social security system and increase social security expenditure; Accelerate the reform and innovation of the financial market, attract investment and give sufficient support to private enterprises.
Liu Fei
[This post was edited by the author on May 25th, 2006 16: 05: 36]
-
-Author: SZ- Li Pin
-Date of issue: May 25, 2006 16: 27: 07
-
Shenzhen City Class: Li Ping
I. Changes in the savings structure:
As can be seen from the above data, in the past ten years, China's household savings rate has shown an obvious downward trend, and its proportion in national savings has dropped from 52.3% in 1992 to 4 1.6% in 200 1 year, a sharp drop of more than ten percentage points. At the same time, the proportion of government savings in national savings is on the rise, from 192 14.6% to 19.5% and 5438+0 in 2006, and the corresponding government savings rate also rose from 1992 to 35.9 in 2006. The proportion of non-financial enterprise savings in national savings also increased from 30.5% in 1992 to 38.2% in 200 1 year, an increase of 7.7 percentage points. From this, we can see that although the household savings decreased during the decade from 1992 to 200 1, the national savings rate remained at a high level of around 40% due to the rapid growth of government and enterprise savings.
Second, the main reasons for the high savings rate:
The high savings rate is related to China's consumption habits, special national conditions and many other factors.
1. Our cultural traditions or consumption habits promote the saving behavior. "If you have money, you should save it" is a phrase we often hear. Residents have become accustomed to saving as a way of managing money.
2. At present, China's social security system is not perfect, and it can even be said that it is relatively backward in medical care, education and old-age care, which leads residents to dare not spend money. There are widespread behaviors such as saving money for the elderly, saving money for preventing diseases and saving money for children to go to college, that is, a large number of "preventive savings" appear.
3. Lack of investment channels is also an important reason for the high savings rate. Our financial market is still in the development stage. The stock market started, but the situation was bleak, which led to residents' lack of investment enthusiasm. Futures and other markets are not fully open to investment, resulting in the direct financing market can not effectively divert a large number of savings funds.
4. A lot of finance is in the hands of a few people, and the consumption of a few rich people is basically saturated, resulting in the phenomenon that "those who want to spend have no money to spend more, and those who have money will not increase their consumption", which leads to the maintenance of savings at a high and stable level.
-
-Author: sz-hzh
-Release date: May 26th, 2006 1 1: 03: 03.
-
Run Zhenhua River in downtown area.
Changes in savings structure
According to the above data, in the past ten years, the proportion of household savings in national savings has dropped from 52.3% in 1992 to 2001.6%; At the same time, the proportion of government savings in national savings is on the rise, from 192 14.6% to 19.5% and 5438+0 in 2006, and the corresponding government savings rate also rose from 1992 to 35.9 in 2006. The proportion of non-financial enterprise savings in national savings also increased from 30.5% in 1992 to 38.2% in 200 1 year, an increase of 7.7 percentage points. It can be seen that the national savings rate remains at a high level of about 40% due to the rapid growth of government and enterprise savings, although household savings showed a downward trend during the decade from 1992 to 200 1.
The main reason for the high savings rate
1. At present, the social security system is not perfect, the medical system is not perfect, the education expenditure is increasing, and the number of laid-off and unemployed people is increasing, which leads to residents' fear of spending money and a large number of "preventive savings".
2. China's traditional culture, social structure, family concept and many other factors.
Although the household savings rate is high, in fact, 80% of the wealth is in the hands of a few people, and the consumption of a few rich people is basically saturated. Most people are not very affluent and dare not spend.
4. Insufficient investment channels and irregular market behavior also lead to a high savings rate.
-
-Author: sz-wjh
-Date of issue: 26 May 2006 17: 29: 58
-Submitting macroeconomic cases
Jianhua City, Wu Ban
According to the principle of national economic accounting (see United Nations,1995; Zhao, 2000; Qiu Dong et al., 2002), savings refers to
Deduct the disposable income of consumption. In the use accounting of national income, disposable income is deducted from consumption.
Call it savings. Therefore, from a national perspective, the difference between national disposable income and total consumption is national savings. Of which the total
Consumption is subdivided into household (resident) consumption and government consumption. National disposable income is equal to GDP and comes from abroad.
The sum of net current transfer, divided by family, government, non-financial enterprises and financial enterprises, can be supported by families.
The difference between income distribution and consumption is family savings; The difference between government disposable income and its consumption is government savings; Non-financial enterprise
The disposable income of industrial and commercial financial enterprises is their own savings, and national savings is equal to the sum of the above four savings.
As can be seen from the above definition, national savings is a country's savings in the economic sense; Family savings are only savings in the family sector;
Residents' savings deposits only refer to the part of residents' savings deposited in the bank. So China usually talks about the excessive savings of residents.
The statement that personal investment channels are narrow or lack diversified investment methods is actually only applicable to discussing the composition of household savings, but
Not suitable for the analysis of China's high savings.
As can be seen from the table, in recent ten years, the proportion of residents' savings in national savings has dropped from 52.3% in 1992 to 410.6% in 200 1 year, a decrease of 10.7 percentage points. At the same time, the proportion of non-financial enterprise savings in national savings rose from 30.5% in 1992 to 38.2% in 200 1 year, an increase of 7.7 percentage points. In addition, the proportion of government savings in national savings rose from 1992 to 200 1, an increase of 4.9 percentage points. Therefore, the main reason why China's national savings rate has remained at a high level in the past decade is not that the household savings rate is generally considered to be too high, but that the savings of enterprises and governments have increased rapidly.
From the distribution of disposable income, it can be seen that since 1996, the proportion of per capita disposable income in the national disposable income has been declining, down by 5.5 percentage points. At the same time, the proportion of government disposable income in national disposable income is rising, with an increase of nearly 4 percentage points. In addition, the proportion of disposable income of non-financial enterprises in the national disposable income has also increased (2.2 percentage points).
Since 1998, with the deepening of the reform of government institutions and the streamlining of civil servants, the daily expenditure of the government, as an important part of government consumption, has been compressed to some extent; At the same time, due to the strengthening of tax collection and management, the national treasury income has increased, and the proportion of government disposable income in national disposable income has increased, thus making the government savings rate rise rapidly. According to the data in the table, the government savings rate was 30% in 1998, and it has risen to 35.9% in 200 1 year. The increase in the government savings rate has increased the proportion of government savings in the total national savings from 13.2% in 1998 to 19.5 in 2006, an increase of 6.3 percentage points.
Although the proportion of disposable income of non-financial enterprises in national disposable income is limited, its proportion in total national savings has increased considerably. From 1998 to 200 1, the growth rate also reached 3.9 percentage points. Kuijs(2005) believes that the main reason for the growth of disposable income of enterprises lies in the improvement of the efficiency of state-owned enterprises. However, the improvement of the efficiency of state-owned enterprises is only one of the reasons. Since 1998, the efficiency of all industrial enterprises has improved to varying degrees, among which the efficiency of joint-stock industrial enterprises has improved most obviously, and the proportion of joint-stock industrial enterprises in all industrial enterprises has also increased the most. Therefore, the increase of the proportion of enterprise disposable income in national disposable income and the improvement of the overall efficiency of enterprises rather than the efficiency of state-owned enterprises should be the main reasons.
To sum up, from the change of savings structure, the main reason for the high national savings rate in China in the past decade is that the national income distribution is tilted towards the government and enterprises, and the government consumption rate is reduced.
[This post was edited by the author on May 26th, 2006 +07: 48: 55]
-
-Author: sz-lshengyan
-Date of issue: 27 May 2006, 8: 39: 32.
-
Shenzhen Urban Stratum (Liu)
First, chart data analysis
In the long run, national savings (total savings) can be divided into four parts: household savings, government savings, non-financial savings and financial savings, which are the sum of these four parts.
As can be seen from the above table, from 1992 to 200 1, while China's national savings rate decreased by 1.4%, China's household savings rate decreased by 5.7%, while the government savings rate increased by 4.9%. In China's national savings, residents' savings decreased by 10.7% and financial savings decreased by10.7%; However, non-financial savings and government savings are on the rise, with non-financial savings rising by 7.7% and government savings rising by 4.9%.
It can be seen that the national savings rate remains at a high level of about 40% due to the rapid growth of government and enterprise savings, although household savings showed a downward trend during the decade from 1992 to 200 1.
2. The main reason for the high savings rate
1, the proportion of private enterprises in the national economic structure is increasing, but its financing channels are narrow, bank support is not enough, it is relatively difficult to apply for loans, and it is even more difficult to accumulate profits through operation for future investment in expanding production reserves, resulting in an increase in non-financial savings.
2. The national social security system is not perfect, and the expected expenditure pressure of residents such as medical care and old-age care is great; The pressure of recurrent expenditure such as education and housing is high; The increase of personal income and the lack of financial investment channels lead to a high level of household savings, and the aging population will obviously affect the household savings rate.
3. With the deepening of the reform of government institutions, the ranks of civil servants have been streamlined, and the government's daily expenses, as an important part of government consumption, have been compressed to some extent; At the same time, due to the strengthening of tax collection and management, the national treasury income has increased, and the proportion of government disposable income in national disposable income has increased, thus making the government savings rate rise rapidly.
-
-Author: sz-lshengyan
-Date of issue: 27 May 2006, 8: 40: 56.
-
Shenzhen Urban Stratum (Huang Zhijian)
According to the data provided by the cash flow statement, the proportion of residents' savings in national savings has dropped from 52.3% in 1992 to 410.6% in 200 1 year, a decrease of 10.7 percentage points. At the same time, the proportion of non-financial enterprise savings in national savings rose from 30.5% in 1992 to 38.2% in 200 1 year, an increase of 7.7 percentage points. In addition, the proportion of government savings in national savings rose from 1992 to 200 1, an increase of 4.9 percentage points. Therefore, the main reason why China's national savings rate has remained at a high level in the past decade is not that the household savings rate is generally considered to be too high, but that the savings of enterprises and governments have increased rapidly.
With the deepening of the reform of government institutions, the ranks of civil servants have been streamlined, and the daily expenses of the government, as an important part of government consumption, have been compressed to a certain extent; At the same time, due to the strengthening of tax collection and management, the national treasury income has increased, and the proportion of government disposable income in national disposable income has increased, thus making the government savings rate rise rapidly. 1998, the government savings rate was 30%, while in 20001year, the government savings rate has risen to 35.9%. The increase in the government savings rate has increased the proportion of government savings in the total national savings from 13.2% in 1998 to 19.5% in 2006, an increase of 6.3 percentage points.
Although the proportion of disposable income of non-financial enterprises in national disposable income is limited, its proportion in total national savings has increased considerably. From 1992 to 200 1, the growth rate also reached 7.7 percentage points. At present, the benefits of all industrial enterprises have been improved to varying degrees, among which the benefits of joint-stock industrial enterprises have been improved most obviously, and the proportion of joint-stock industrial enterprises in all industrial enterprises has also increased the most. Therefore, the increase of the proportion of enterprise disposable income in national disposable income and the improvement of the overall efficiency of enterprises rather than the efficiency of state-owned enterprises should be the main reasons.
To sum up, the main reason for the high national savings rate in China in the past decade is that the national income distribution is tilted towards the government and enterprises, and the government consumption rate is reduced.
-
-Author: sz-ywenfa
-Release date: May 28, 2006 1 1: 02: 27
-
Extract the basic concepts: (Yao Wenfa City Class)
Savings refers to the part of disposable income that deducts consumption; Savings = disposable income-consumption
National savings refers to the difference between national disposable income and total consumption; National savings = national disposable income-total consumption
Government savings refers to the difference between government disposable income and its consumption; Government savings = government disposable income-government consumption
Household savings refers to the difference between per capita disposable income and its consumption; Household savings = per capita disposable income-household consumption