The purpose is to provide liquidity for the real economy and a place for enterprises to directly finance.
Capital market is the biggest place of interest, which inevitably becomes a speculative game of intelligence and tactics.
There are only two ways to make money in the capital market:
1, superior intelligence.
2. Information of the first step.
Most people have average intelligence, the news is lagging behind, and the capital market is doomed to lose money. Only those who have superior intelligence or get information earlier than others can make money in the stock market.
Another stupid way is to buy index funds at a relatively low valuation period and sell them when the market is overheated, so that the probability of making money is higher.
In fact, many rules of A-share are really protecting retail investors, such as the price limit, T+ 1, the threshold of 500,000 for science and technology innovation board, the threshold of 65438+100,000 for growth enterprise market, and the threshold of 500,000 for stock index futures.
For most retail investors, one more investment channel means one more way to lose money, which is clearer than anyone else.
Let's take a look at the GEM some time ago. After the establishment of the registration system, it is very convenient to cut leeks.
Retail investors who play high-quality stocks on the main board or buy index funds are much less likely to lose money and make money more easily.
If we really let go of all restrictions, it will be tantamount to throwing sheep into the virgin forest, and it will only quickly become a feast for forest beasts.
Back to the theme, although the capital market is full of tactics and hunting, we can't completely deny the role played by the capital market.
The role of the capital market is reflected in providing liquidity for the real economy and cultivating a new economy.
If everyone saves all the money they earn and doesn't spend it, consumption will not come up and the economy will have no vitality.
Saving is a good thing, but it must be limited, otherwise it will hurt the economy in turn.
The modern economic crisis is largely caused by the lack of liquidity, which has two reasons: one is that the gap between the rich and the poor is too large, which hurts the consumption power; Another reason is that there is no money-making effect in society. Everyone saves money, resulting in a high savings rate. No one consumes or invests.
The gap between the rich and the poor is so great that the poor have no money to spend. Rich people have too much wealth, but they can't spend so much money, so they will lead to insufficient consumption. Insufficient consumption will lead to insufficient liquidity, capital will not flow, and everyone will not make money, which will lead to a liquidity crisis.
Liquidity crisis will bring debt crisis, which is an important reason of modern economic crisis.
Let me give you a simple example, the following two situations:
1, one hundred people, one million each, a total of one hundred million.
2. One hundred people, one of whom has 990 10000, and the other 99 people, each with only 10000, totaling 100 million.
The same number of people, the same total amount of funds, which one do you think has stronger spending power?
It must be the first one, because everyone has money to spend.
In the second case, a person with only 10000 yuan may not spend all of 10000 yuan. For a person with 90 million, he may not spend all of10 million, and most of the money will not circulate in the end.
Therefore, the excessive gap between the rich and the poor is also an important reason for the liquidity crisis.
Of course, saving will not cause the gap between the rich and the poor, but if you save too much, it will also lead to a liquidity crisis, which in turn will lead to a debt crisis. The principle is the same as above.
Therefore, there are two ways to achieve economic prosperity and sustainable development:
1, narrowing the gap between the rich and the poor.
Let everyone take out their money for consumption or investment.
It is more difficult to narrow the gap between the rich and the poor, because the rich have pricing power, and they always tend to make more favorable rules of the game for themselves.
For example, American tax cuts actually give more to the rich. Instead of narrowing the gap between the rich and the poor, they widen the gap.
Since it is too difficult to narrow the gap between the rich and the poor, it can only be achieved by stimulating consumption and investment.
So you see, all kinds of consumerism have prevailed in recent years, which is produced in this environment.
The essence of stimulating consumption is to improve the liquidity of funds. Only when capital flows can the economy prosper.
When stimulating consumption can't stimulate, then encourage everyone to buy a house and turn it into an investment, and everyone will be more willing to pay for the house.
But for most buyers who buy their own houses, they are still spending because they will not sell them.
Others argue that buying a car is also an investment, saying that all consumption is an investment, eating is also an investment, attending various training courses is also an investment, and speculating in stocks is also an investment. The purpose is to save money from consumers' pockets.
In recent years, young people have exceeded consumption, and excessive leverage has also been formed under the brainwashing of consumerism.
If things go too far, there will be problems of excessive savings and excessive consumption, and excessive savings will lead to economic decline. The best example is Japanese society.
Excessive consumption leads to excessive debt. When the cash flow growth is lower than the debt growth, the debt crisis will occur. The best example is European and American society.
In the past, the American economy seemed prosperous, on the one hand, because of its strong scientific and technological strength, on the other hand, because it surpassed the concept of consumption. High consumption has brought economic prosperity, but in the event of an economic crisis, many Americans will immediately face bankruptcy.
This epidemic has dealt a great blow to Americans. What many people are afraid of is not the epidemic, but unemployment. Many people will immediately fall into debt crisis as long as they have no income for one or two months.
Even if they know that excessive consumption will bring debt risks, for the rentier class, they will only encourage everyone to continue to increase leverage and encourage them to spend in advance, so that they can make money more easily. Reasonable consumption and reasonable savings do not exist.
China people used to like saving, but the rentier class has 10,000 ways to empty people's wallets.
Buy a car after buying a house, buy stocks after buying a car, and all kinds of financial management and speculation. There's always one for you.
At present, the global economic problem is largely a liquidity problem. The United States is a consumption-driven economy, with a large proportion of service industry and finance, a single economic structure and poor ability to resist risks.
The epidemic led to a sharp decline in the service industry in the United States, and then the GDP of the United States fell sharply.
At present, US liquidity is mainly supported by US stocks. As long as the American stock market continues to rise, Americans still have money to spend. Once the US stock market plummets, many Americans will fall into negative assets and can directly declare bankruptcy. Highly leveraged enterprises will also have a debt crisis, and the entire American society will fall into a liquidity crisis.
This is also the reason why everyone in the United States is very afraid of the decline of US stocks.
It can also be said that the American economy has actually been kidnapped by American stocks, which is why American stocks can only go up but not down.
But I'm not saying that US stocks will not fall. When American stocks plummet, American society will get out of control.
China's economic structure is still relatively good. Manufacturing, real estate, consumption, infrastructure investment and capital market jointly support China's economy.
Although each leg has some problems more or less, after all, it has a clear hierarchy and a much stronger ability to resist risks than the United States.
10 years ago, China's rapid economic development mainly depended on manufacturing. At that time, the leverage ratio was very low and the economy developed healthily.
Since 2008, house prices have continued to rise, which has also become the engine of the economy to some extent.
However, after 20 15, the house price rose too high, which has hurt the consumption power. Coupled with insufficient global consumption, the manufacturing industry continues to decline, and housing prices have changed from promoting economic growth to hurting the real economy.
The proportion of China's industry in GDP was 42% in 2006, and it dropped to 33.3% in 20 16.
The proportion of American industry in GDP is even lower, and now it is only about 1 1%.
Now house prices are too high to continue to stimulate the economy with real estate.
If the real economy is not good, infrastructure cannot continue to be built on a large scale, and infrastructure will cost money.
Only the capital market can provide a lot of liquidity now. Only a prosperous capital market can attract a large number of social funds to participate in speculation and funds will flow.
Only when capital flows can emerging enterprises go public for financing. When investors make money, they will spend more boldly. If they spend more, the economy will prosper, and it will be easier for everyone to make money, forming a positive cycle. This is the logic that the capital market serves the real economy.
Of course, if the capital market is too speculative and the bubble is too big, it will hurt the real economy in turn, just as high housing prices will hurt the real economy.
Only a stable capital market can truly serve the real economy, which is the idea of supporting the capital market and restraining excessive speculation.
But in general, we still have to get out of a bull market. The capital market must have a money-making effect in order to attract social funds. The poor capital market can't really serve the real economy.
To some extent, it is really a gamble on the country's luck to do more A shares now.
As long as we are optimistic about China's economic prospects, the opportunity now lies in A shares.