Affected by the continuous decline in the price of raw sugar futures in NYBOT sugar market, Brazil's sugar market almost stagnated this week except for the secondary market. Tachilo Rodriguez, director of Bioagencia, a sugar and liquor consulting company in Sao Paulo, believes that the suspension of shipments in Brazilian sugar factories this week may have a lot to do with the recent sharp drop in international sugar prices caused by various unfavorable factors. The recent trend of international sugar prices is really terrible. No one expected that the international sugar price would fall so fast and so sharply, although the market had already expected that the sugar price would come back, because the fundamental outlook has indeed changed since the raw sugar futures price in NYBOT sugar market broke through the high point of 18 cents/pound six months ago. Unexpectedly, the sugar prices of 0665,438+00,0703 successively fell below 65438+. The raw sugar futures price of NYBOT sugar market fluctuated in the range of1113 cents/pound for several weeks, but this week, the sugar price of the 06 10 period in NYBOT sugar market has dropped to 10. 15 cents/pound, which is lower than last Wednesday. Corresponding to the sharp drop in the price of raw sugar futures in NYBOT sugar market, there was almost no trading in Brazil sugar market this week. At present, the sugar factory has rolled 06 10 into the 0703 contract, all to see how the sugar price will go when the 06 10 contract is delisted on Friday. At present, some Brazilian manufacturers insist that even if the international sugar price is not too high in the medium term, it will at least rise to 13 cents/pound. However, some manufacturers believe that based on the output of new sugar, the international sugar market will turn into oversupply, and there is still room for further decline in international sugar prices. Of course, everyone hopes that the price of sugar can remain at the current level. Antonio Augusto Dewar, manager of BNPParibas soft commodity trading department in Sao Paulo, France, said he was not so pessimistic. Although the possibility of further decline in sugar price is not ruled out, it seems that the sugar price has bottomed out at present. It is estimated that the sugar price in 0703 NYBOT sugar market will fluctuate in the range of 10.50- 12.50 cents/pound. Due to the relatively high cost of sugar factories in northeast Brazil, sugar factories in this region are also facing the problem of reducing new overseas orders this week. Magno brito, consultant to the board of directors of Carlos Lyra Sugar Company, a large sugar group in northeast Brazil, said that now everyone is frightened by the trend of sugar prices, because according to the current exchange rate, the cost of sugar production in the central and southern regions is basically only about 10 cent/pound, while the average cost of sugar production in the northern and northeastern regions is as high as10.5-/kloc-. Although there is still a great demand for Brazilian sugar in the international market at this stage, sugar factories can't buy sugar at the current international sugar price. At present, CarlosLyra Sugar Company is considering converting some high-grade raw sugar (VHP raw sugar) into white sugar, but the premise is that the premium of white sugar to raw sugar must be maintained at the current level. Once the international sugar price rises, the company will start shipping immediately. However, the trading of VHP raw sugar in Brazil's secondary market this week is not too bad. According to sugar merchants in Sao Paulo, some merchants bought some VHP raw sugar at very competitive prices this week due to the drop in international sugar prices. In terms of alcohol market, due to the continuous recovery of domestic demand, the domestic alcohol price in Brazil this week was basically the same as last week or decreased 1-2 cents/liter, and the tax-included price of absolute alcohol and water-containing alcohol was reported at 0.90 reais/liter; The price of alcohol in the export market has not changed much. As European buyers are still asking about the price of anhydrous alcohol with a purity of 99.7-99.8%, the price of this anhydrous alcohol in Santos Port this week is still at the level of FOB480 USD /m3, and the price of hydrous alcohol is also kept at around 400 USD /m3. News: Production progress: According to domestic traders in Brazil, there are still about 20% sugarcane to be harvested in south-central Brazil. Because the dry weather has affected the growth of sugarcane this year, it is estimated that some sugar factories in this area, especially those near RiberaoPreto, S? o Paulo, may stop squeezing before the end of the new sugar-making year 10. As for the northeast region, most sugar factories in Pernambuco, Paleba and Rio Grande Notte have started, and half of the sugar factories in Alagoas have entered the sugar production year of 2006-07. Industry dynamics: This week, NOVA Group has decided to increase its capital by 200 million US dollars, and * * has allocated 900 million reais (about 4110 million US dollars) to build a new sugar factory in Mato Grosso, of which 580 million reais (about 265 million US dollars) are used for factory construction and another 320 million reais (about 654,338+0.46 million US dollars). According to Brazilian domestic media reports, TavaresdeMelo Sugar Group, located in the northeast of Brazil, expects that the sugarcane output will reach 5.5 million tons in the new sugar production year, and plans to go public in the next two years. Brazil's domestic sugar market: According to the data tracked by Cepea-Esalq of the University of S? o Paulo, Brazil, the ex-factory price of 50 kg bags of Brazil 150 colored sugar has dropped from 38.00 reais/bag last week to 37.90 reais/bag this week. Brazil's sugar export market: the export price of Brazil1October1kloc-0150 delivered on Wednesday has risen from 75-79 USD/ton last week to 80 USD/ton, which is about the sugar price of NYBOT sugar market in 0703. Although the sugar price in NYBOT sugar market is relatively high at present, the seller still plans to delist from NYBOT sugar market this Friday after the release of 06 10. At the same time, the export price of10-1.01.00 Brazilian high-grade raw sugar (VHP raw sugar) has increased from-15-+ 15 last week to+5-+. Brazil is not only the world's largest producer and exporter of sugar, but also the world's largest exporter of alcohol, and its alcohol production ranks second in the world after the United States.