In addition to LG, Posco Iron & Steel Chemical announced last year that its NCMA cathode material will increase the nickel content to over 80%, and adopt an independently developed aluminum doping process, which will be commercialized soon. In China, Honeycomb Energy is the first in the industry to successfully develop NCMA quaternary cathode materials, and it is expected to be officially mass-produced in 20021year. In addition, domestic leading material manufacturers such as GEM and Zhongwei are also deeply deployed in NCMA.

Although the nickel content of NCMA battery has reached 90%, the pursuit of high nickel by battery enterprises can go far beyond this. Two of the "Big Three" power batteries, Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd. and Panasonic, have been developing "rare metal batteries" with lower cobalt content, higher nickel content and even no cobalt, and Tesla also released its own "100% nickel battery" on the previous battery day.

However, NCA and NCM8 1 1 are the main commercial high nickel batteries at present. At present, most Tesla models use NCA from Panasonic and NCM8 1 1 batteries from LG New Energy. Zeng Yuqun, Chairman of Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Ltd. said that 8 1 1 batteries have now accounted for more than 20% of the company's total power battery shipments. In April this year, the domestic Ford Mustang Mach-E was officially launched, using BYD's NCM8 1 1 battery.

Minsheng Securities Research Report believes that among the heavy new cars listed at home and abroad in 202 1, ternary high nickel accounts for a relatively high proportion, including popular models such as Tesla Model Y/Cybertrunk, Volkswagen ID.4/ID.6 and Nissan Ariya, which is expected to further enhance the penetration rate of high nickel in ternary materials. The industry predicts that by 2025, the magnetic permeability of high nickel ternary materials will reach 60%-70%.

High nickel reduces cost "artifact"

For a long time, cobalt is an indispensable chemical element in ternary batteries. However, due to the low and unstable global output of cobalt resources, its high price greatly affects the production cost of batteries. Therefore, the high nickel battery greatly reduces the cobalt content while increasing the nickel content, which not only improves its own capacity but also reduces the production cost.

The research data show that in an ideal state, high nickel NCMA battery can reduce the cobalt content to below 10% and the battery cost to below 100 USD/kWh (about RMB 700 yuan/kWh). According to the report of Zhongtai Securities, the cost of ternary battery in the market is 800-850 yuan/kWh at present. According to the calculation of bicycle 60KWh, using NCMA battery car can save 6000-9000 yuan.

The research data of Huajing Industry shows that with the subsequent maturity of high nickel technology and the commercial application of CTP and other technologies, the decline curve of high nickel ternary cost is steeper. It is predicted that the ternary cost of high nickel is lower than that of 5/6 ternary system in 2023-2024 and lithium iron phosphate battery in 2027-2028, and the final theoretical cost is lower than that of lithium iron phosphate battery 10- 15%. Bai Houshan, chairman of Bai Rong Science and Technology, also said that it is expected that by 2030, the cost of high-nickel batteries will be equivalent to or even lower than that of lithium ferrous phosphate.

The competition for nickel is becoming more and more fierce.

With the high nickel route becoming an important technical development direction of power batteries, the demand for nickel will also usher in a blowout in the future. In 20 19, only 9% nickel was used to produce batteries and 80% nickel was used to produce stainless steel. More nickel resources will be used for batteries in the future. BenchmarkMineral Intelligence predicts that by 2030, the demand for nickel for power batteries will soar from 6.5438+0.39 million tons in 2020 to 6.5438+0.4 million tons, accounting for 30% of the total demand for nickel.

Under this background and trend, global giants are robbing nickel resources.

At the earnings analyst meeting in Q2 last year, Musk said that if a mining company can provide a large amount of nickel, Tesla will give the company a huge order. According to reports, Tesla plans to build a nickel battery factory in Indonesia. Last year, it also negotiated a large nickel mine order with Canadian mining company Giga Metals.

In fact, as early as 20 18, Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd. invested150,000 Canadian dollars in North American nickel giants through its subsidiary Canada Times and began to lay out nickel. In September of the same year, Contemporary Amp Technology Co., Ltd. cooperated with GEM and Qingshan Holdings to build a precursor material project with an annual output of 50,000 tons of high-nickel power ternary materials in Indonesia. In order to obtain nickel from Indonesia, Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd. also reached an agreement with Indonesia, and Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd. should ensure that 60% of nickel is processed into batteries in Indonesia.

Indonesia is the country with the richest reserves and output of laterite nickel ore in the world. In 20 18, Indonesia's laterite nickel ore reserves accounted for 18.7% of the global total reserves, and its output accounted for nearly one third of the global total. In addition to Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd., the "old rival" LG plans to invest 9.8 billion US dollars to build a battery factory with a local Indonesian enterprise in order to obtain nickel from Indonesia.

Also on 20 18, BYD, another "old rival" of Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd., jointly launched the MCC New Materials Project with Gao Xuan Hi-Tech, China Minmetals and Tangshan Caofeidian Investment Group. The project is divided into two phases, one is the ternary precursor with an annual output of 40,000 tons of high nickel (NCM622), and the other is the ternary precursor with an annual output of 60,000 tons of high nickel (NCM8 1 1).

With the support of Volkswagen China, Guo Xuan Hi-Tech not only cooperated with China Minmetals, but also signed a contract with Lujiang County People's Government of Hefei in July 2020 to land the project of ternary cathode material with an annual output of 30,000 tons of high nickel in Lujiang.

Since 20021,the battery industry chain enterprises have been fighting for nickel.

Bai Rong Science and Technology invested 2.9 billion yuan in February, and the second phase of the "High Nickel Cathode Material Production Line Project" jointly established with Zunyi Municipal People's Government started. After commissioning, the high nickel production capacity will enter the gate of 654.38+10,000 tons/year. Two months later, Bai Rong Science and Technology started a project to produce 70,000 tons of high-nickel anode in North Korea.

In March, after the breakthrough of high nickel matte technology, Qingshan Holdings signed a supply agreement with Zhongwei and Huayou Cobalt. Castle Peak Holdings will supply 60,000 tons of high-grade matte to Huayou Cobalt and 40,000 tons of high-grade matte to Zhongwei Co., Ltd. in 2002 1 to1year. In April, Zhongwei Co., Ltd. invested 600 million yuan, and signed a joint venture agreement with Singapore RIGQUEZA Company through its wholly-owned subsidiary for smelting laterite-nickel ore with an annual output of 30,000 tons of high matte nickel-bearing metal (Indonesia).

Last month, Yiwei Lithium Energy planned to set up a joint venture with Betray and Sikorsky to produce 50,000 tons of high-nickel ternary cathode materials annually. A week later, Yiwei Lithium signed a joint venture agreement with Huayou Cobalt, Yongrui Holdings, Glaucous and LINDO on the wet smelting project of Indonesia Huayu Nickel Cobalt laterite nickel ore. All parties will build a laterite-nickel hydrometallurgy project in Indonesia with an annual output of 65.438+200,000 tons of nickel and 65.438+500,000 tons of cobalt, with a total investment of about 65.438+340 billion yuan.

"From the perspective of our core energy, we expect that the cumulative demand for nickel in the next few years will be 250% of that in the past 30 years. Nickel is an outstanding winner in the decarbonization world. Because the energy density of nickel is the highest no matter what metal combination is tested in the negative electrode of lithium ion battery. It is the main force of lithium-ion batteries. " The head of global mining giant BHP Billiton said.

It is not difficult to imagine that the competition of battery enterprises for nickel will continue to be fierce in the future.