The price of corn rose slightly, but the risk escalated.
In recent days, the price of corn has risen slightly, with the quotations of enterprises in Shandong generally raised by 0.5- 1.5 point, and some enterprises in North China raised by about 1 point.
There are several reasons why the price of corn can rise in the stage when new corn is listed one after another:
1. Due to the rain during the National Day, the corn harvest was delayed, the corn moisture content was high, and the centralized loading period of corn was postponed.
2. Recently, feed enterprises have made frequent efforts to raise the price of corn.
3. After the price of pigs and chickens rebounded, the domestic breeding capacity improved and the demand for corn increased.
The rising corn price is certainly a good thing for farmers, and the efforts of feed enterprises will provide more impetus for the rising corn price. Compared with deep processing enterprises, feed enterprises have acceptable profits and higher acceptance of corn prices. After the corn price rises, it will not cause big fluctuations in the feed market.
However, it should be noted that the rise of corn price will lead to the risk escalation of corn price.
From the recent corn price trend, it can be found that the corn prices in Shandong and North China are mainly rising, while the corn prices in Northeast China are falling steadily, which will widen the price difference between Northeast China and Shandong. At present, enterprises in North China, Huanghuai and South China are waiting for this opportunity. After the spread widens, the price of corn in Northeast China will inevitably impact the price of corn in Shandong and North China, and these two regions are likely to follow suit and cut prices.
The price of wheat rises and falls.
After a month's rising period, the price of wheat soared to 1.62 yuan.
According to the market, with the high price of wheat, the quantity of wheat is increasing, which leads to the decline of wheat price.
The mainstream quotations of flour enterprises in Shandong, Hebei, Henan and other places are generally lowered by 0.5- 1 point.
There are several main reasons for the decline in wheat prices:
1. After the skyrocketing wheat price, the market adjusted normally.
2. The price of wheat rose to 1.62 yuan, which reached the psychological price of grass-roots farmers and traders, and the quantity of wheat increased in both aspects.
3. The demand side of wheat has not improved significantly, and the support for high prices is insufficient.
4. International wheat futures prices fell.
In a short period of time, the wheat market lacks favorable demand, and the probability is narrow.
However, after entering 1 1, it will enter the traditional peak season of flour demand in China, which will obviously support the wheat price and help to maintain the wheat price around 1.6 yuan.
Soybean prices are near strong and far weak.
Affected by the increase in soybean subsidies, the considerable soybean income in the previous year and the pessimistic crop output caused by climate factors in some areas in the previous year, it is estimated that the soybean planting area in China will reach 654.38+0.49 billion mu this year, which means that the soybean output will be significantly improved.
However, since most soybeans in China are imported, the increase of domestic soybean production has less influence on the domestic soybean trend than the quantity of imported soybeans.
It is understood that the domestic soybean crush volume was significantly higher than the arrival volume last week, and the soybean inventory declined. By the end of last week, soybean stocks decreased by 6.5438+0.34 million tons compared with the same period of last month and by 6.5438+0.4110,000 tons compared with the same period of last year.
Although the soybean crushing volume is high, the soybean meal has not formed a backlog, and the soybean meal inventory has decreased by 6,543,800 tons compared with the same period of last month and by 280,000 tons compared with the same period of last year.
Moreover, the arrival of soybeans in Hong Kong in June may fall further at 5438+ 10. Under the influence of the decline of dual stocks of soybeans and soybean meal, it is expected that soybean prices will remain strong in the short term.
However, in the long run, after 1 1 month, the arrival of American soybeans in Hong Kong will increase obviously, the domestic soybean supply will gradually increase, and the soybean price will turn from strong to weak.
Rice is as stable as a rock. What does it depend on?
Compared with the sharp changes in the prices of soybeans, corn and wheat, the price of rice is much more stable. At the beginning of 2020, the price of japonica rice in China was 2599 yuan/ton, and in September 2022 it was 27 17 yuan/ton, the price of wheat was 23 19 yuan/ton, and the price of corn was 30 15 yuan/ton.
The stability of rice price mainly depends on the following points:
1, the domestic rice production continued to increase and the quality of rice continued to improve, which changed the situation that the domestic rice supply was in short supply and ensured the normal supply of rice.
2. With the improvement of residents' living standard and the diversification of food, the demand for rice has decreased steadily.
3. The continuous start of stock market acquisition has increased rice stocks, avoided the ups and downs of rice prices, and ensured that rice prices are in a reasonable range.
4. The increase of imported rice has stabilized the upward trend of rice market price to some extent.