In late March, domestic spot soybean meal fell to a new low, among which, the price of soybean meal in Jiangsu oil plant fell to 3,670 yuan/ton, that in Guangdong oil plant fell to 3,765,438 yuan +00 yuan/ton, and that in Shandong coastal oil plant fell to 3,720 yuan/ton, which was 35.3% lower than the previous high point! However, with the unexpected decline of soybean meal market, the downstream demand inventory gradually decreased, the enthusiasm for spot soybean meal trading gradually increased, and the domestic soybean meal price oversold and rose. Recently, affected by various supports, the soybean meal market is much cry and little rain, and the price has risen sharply!
According to institutional analysis, the price of soybean meal in the coastal areas of Guangdong has risen to 4750 yuan/ton, and the price of soybean meal in Shandong, Tianjin, Jiangsu and other places has gradually increased to 4400~4500 yuan/ton. Among them, in Guangdong, the price of soybean meal in oil plants has increased by 1040 yuan compared with 3,765,438 yuan/ton at the end of March.
So what happened in the market?
This round of soybean meal oversold and skyrocketed. Personally, I think the key points are as follows:
First, the oil plant stopped working, and the soybean meal inventory gradually decreased;
In March, domestic mainstream oil plants stopped working. On the one hand, due to the accumulation of soybean meal, soybean meal in many oil plants expands, and oil plants actively reduce the operating rate; On the other hand, the import of soybeans to Hong Kong has been delayed, the soybean stocks have been decreasing, and oil plants have been shut down due to soybean breakage. It is understood that due to the recent adjustment of the domestic soybean entry approval process, the arrival of soybeans in Hong Kong has been delayed for nearly 2 to 3 weeks, the crushing scale of oil plants has decreased, the inventory of soybean meal has gradually decreased, and the supply has gradually shown a tight performance!
Second, the heat of soybean meal trading is heating up, and the phenomenon of centralized stocking in the downstream market is increasing!
After the Spring Festival, the soybean meal market maintained a downward trend, and the main feed and breeding subjects were mainly on the sidelines, and the inventory remained at a low level. However, due to the approval of transgenic and CIQ certificates, the market panic and enthusiasm for receiving soybean meal have increased sharply, further causing the pressure of tight supply of spot soybean meal!
Therefore, due to the trend of "weak supply and strong demand" in the staged soybean meal market, the spot soybean meal price rose sharply against the trend. However, this round of soybean meal market is strong or difficult to sustain. According to institutional analysis, the monthly scale of imported soybeans will still be 9 million-10/00000 tons from April to May. With the gradual increase of soybeans entering Hong Kong, the operating rate of oil plants will continue to rise, and the tight supply of soybean meal will gradually improve.