Yesterday, many people in the industry interviewed by the reporter were optimistic about the trend of gold in 2009, and thought that the performance of gold this year would be more eye-catching.
Gold is the most resilient investment in adulthood.
The trend of international gold price in 2008 can be summarized by "cycle", from the opening price of gold in London at the beginning of the year to the highest price of 1032 USD/ounce on March 7, July 5 1032 USD/ounce, 988 USD/ounce, and then to June 24 10. The international gold price started at more than $800 per ounce at the beginning of the year and returned to the original point at the end of the year.
Similarly, compared with Shanghai Gold Exchange's Hujin 9999, from the opening price of 195 yuan/gram at the beginning of last year to 123 1 90.65 yuan/gram, investors should pay attention to the fact that the gold price fluctuated little from the beginning of the year to the end of the year.
In this regard, Ran Shouqiang, a senior gold analyst at Beijing Zhonghui Angao Information Consulting Co., Ltd. said: "Compared with the stock decline that investors are familiar with, gold should become the most resistant investment product during the year."
It is worth noting that the reporter found in the relevant information that since 200 1, the closing price of spot gold on the last trading day of each year has increased compared with the closing price of the previous year, which means that spot gold has maintained an upward trend for eight consecutive years.
This year's 1000 USD/oz or reappearance.
For the overall trend of international gold prices this year, many people in the industry have analyzed the international financial environment and geopolitics. Next year, the international gold price is still in the overall upward channel, but the repetition will be more intense.
Song, a financial planner at Bank of China (3.00, 0.05, 1.69%, right) Shenyang Branch, said that with the sharp interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve at the end of last year and the monetary policy close to zero interest rate, the depreciation of the US dollar accelerated, and the weakness of the US dollar inevitably led to the rise of gold. Similarly, in the international financial market, the real economy is uncertain, and as the most important safe-haven export, gold will still be subject to the international market.
Ran Shouqiang believes that investors should also consider international geopolitical factors while paying attention to the international financial crisis. According to the past history, if there is a crisis in international geopolitics, the international gold price will fall in a short time, but with the extension of time, the international gold price will rise sharply.
Similarly, Zhang Yichen, Finance Department of yongan futures Shenyang Business Department, analyzed that the international gold price will show an upward trend in the first half of 2009. This year, the international gold price is likely to stand above $65,438+$0,000 per ounce again. In addition, the international gold price will also drive up the prices of other commodities.
The correlation between dollar and gold price trends has decreased.
Dollar and gold have been moving in opposite directions, but will the phenomenon that the dollar and gold strengthened together in June 165438+ 10 this year reappear in 2009?
Zhang Yichen, Finance Department of yongan futures Shenyang Business Department, said that the correlation between the price trend of US dollar and gold is indeed decreasing, and it is expected that both US dollar and gold will strengthen again in 2009, so investors should not simply judge the trend of gold by the price trend of US dollar or international crude oil, so investors should pay attention.
In addition, Ran Shouqiang analyzed that if the international gold price falls below $800/oz this year, it will be a good opportunity for investors to intervene, while if the international gold price breaks through $900/oz, it will form a shock pattern between $800/oz and show a further upward trend.
Song, a financial planner at Bank of China Shenyang Branch, said that for paper gold, at present, according to the domestic quotation, every time the price of gold drops to 170 yuan/gram, it can intervene, but when it reaches 190 yuan/gram, there will be some upward pressure. If the central bank continues to cut interest rates at the beginning of this year, the price of gold will accelerate.