The futures market is a very attractive market. This is a market that trades according to its own decisions and judgments under recognized rules of the game. Its margin system gives people many opportunities to be small and broad. It can make huge profits. Indeed, futures can make people rich. People only saw this before they joined the market. It turns out that futures trading is that simple. You can make a lot of money by buying up and selling down. Take the highest price and the lowest price to calculate how much money you will earn if you go to Man Cang, and then get yourself excited. Getting excited is as simple as that, and then enter the market with confidence.

At this time, people don't know that the financial investment market is not as simple as the chart on the screen in his eyes, nor do they know what kind of knowledge they need to master to enter the financial market. In their eyes, there is only business, and they may taste some sweetness at first. Naturally, when Man Cang won the first battle, his confidence increased. Gradually, he found out why the market always had a hard time with himself at this time. It goes up when it is sold, and it goes down when it is bought. Moreover, the timing of the reverse entry point is well grasped, as if the power of the market is only his own. This is the magic of the futures market. It is very easy to make big money or even make big money several times in a row, but it is extremely difficult to maintain profitability for a long time. Every futures trader has had the experience of making money. Many people have had the experience of making big money for a while, but few people have the ability to remain profitable. The final result often disappoints them. As a result, only a few people in the market can profit from it, even profiteering.

In the commodity spot market, if buyers and sellers reach a transaction, it is generally a win-win result, while in the futures market, the transaction of futures contracts is a win-win result. Therefore, in any case, some investors will be in a passive situation of loss. If investors want to be long-term and stable winners in the futures market, they must establish investment principles that are in line with market conditions.

There are many kinds of transactions in the market, and it is not an exaggeration to describe them in various ways. All kinds of trading methods have the possibility of profit, which is also the charm of futures. This charm attracts a large number of investors to participate in futures trading, and everyone thinks they can succeed. However, it is precisely because of the diversity of trading methods that it is difficult for investors to find a suitable trading method, because the market is profitable at different stages, which gives investors an illusion that there are opportunities everywhere in the market and people are making money every day. But why can't you always catch it? It is easy for investors to get lost in this illusion. The root of this illusion is that investors regret missing any opportunity and will blame themselves because they think they have the ability to seize it. The inclusiveness of the market often leads investors to be unable to determine their own trading methods. In practice, the closer to the market, the more easily it is influenced by other factors, such as market atmosphere, the entry and exit of main players, the shock of news, the pull of market operation and so on.

A trader who enters the futures market for the first time is likely to be an intuitive trader. They often rely on their intuition to trade. Their intuition is often an illusion because of their limited knowledge and practical experience of the market. For example, in the upward trend, novices can't wait to short when they see a commodity rising continuously, and they will add positions when they are quilted, which is related to the concept of buying low and selling high in their daily life. Some traders saw that the K-line had a certain bullish pattern before, and then commodity prices did rise, so they thought that this pattern would be bullish. In fact, his point of view is a dependence on the previous cognitive system. However, history will not simply repeat itself. "This time" is different from "last time", and past experience cannot be the basis for judging the present.

The biggest misfortune for a novice to enter the futures market is that intuition often leads to his mistakes. In last year's big bull market in copper market, an investor took a clear direction, but didn't make any money. Why does he always hold more than one copper? However, when the price of copper rose, he always thought that the price rose too fast and too fast and needed to be adjusted, so he closed his position first and wanted to wait until the price fell before buying. Unexpectedly, when the copper price rose, he did not look back and rose to 30 thousand points, which made investors beat their chests and feet and regretted it.

Investors engaged in futures trading in China now have different backgrounds, ranging from those engaged in industry to those engaged in spot trading. Many people are first-class in management, trade negotiation, public relations and market development. They are already familiar with the transactions in the shopping center. But unlike futures investment, it deals with the futures market, and the market is always correct. It needs professional knowledge and technology to meet the market demand, which most investors don't have and can't learn in a short time. As a result, most investors operate futures only by intuition and spot trading knowledge, and the result is self-evident.

Second, why make money?

After several ups and downs in the futures market, I finally chose the mechanical trading system as the main basis for investment decision.

The system I'm talking about is to program a set of mature trading methods and then store them in the computer, and use the instructions issued by the computer to guide us to complete each transaction. System is a scientific view that people know the whole thing from the relationship between parts, and systematization means to express and realize this conscious understanding in an orderly and intuitive way.

The financial market is complex, and the more complex it is, the more it needs to be explained and handled in this systematic way. Investment is also a complicated activity. Loss trading is not only caused by the complexity of price fluctuation, but also by various unstable factors from investors themselves. In order to survive in the financial market for a long time and maintain a stable profit, we must establish effective systematic means on the basis of fully understanding the market to help eliminate all kinds of interference factors caused by price and emotion on the exchange and ensure that every transaction is low-risk and high-return.

The idea of trading system is summed up by traders who have been wrestling in the market for a long time. It is an understanding of market regularity and a trading behavior system formed as a whole.

Principle of trading system: the price changes rapidly, and using complexity to describe complexity is counterproductive, which is not conducive to investors' quick and effective response immediately. Apply the principle of mechanization, organization and quantification of all data. An accurate and efficient trading system to describe the market can not be fooled by a large number of random factors on the surface of the market.

(1) Whether the trading system is complete and objective depends on long-term statistics and practice, which proves that it can be stable and profitable. Systematic trading method belongs to scientific investment trading method.

(2) The trading system is a complete trading rules system. It must clearly define all relevant links of investment decision. This provision must be objective and unique, and different interpretations are not allowed.

(3) The trading system is characterized by its integrity. Every decision point in a complete trading cycle, including entry point, exit point, re-entry point and re-exit point, has clear and specific provisions, thus forming a complete decision chain.

(4) A trading system without wait-and-see and avoidance is not a perfect trading system. An excellent trading system does not limit profits, but only limits losses. Systematic trading emphasizes long-term and stable overall income, rather than gains and losses in one place at a time.

In the speculative market, there is a probability advantage for a long time, rather than putting all your eggs in one basket. Successful traders only regard each transaction as one of a series of possibilities and probabilities. Due to the uneven distribution of statistical samples and the aggregation of adverse events, any trading system is bound to face a continuous failure period. In this period of adversity, in the face of strong psychological pressure, it is of great significance to deeply understand the investment concept on which the trading system is based for maintaining the psychological balance in adversity.

When the transaction adopts 100% objective decision-making mode, human factors are completely excluded in the process of signal generation. It is this feature that makes the system trading method effectively eliminate the interference of people's subjective will and personal emotions on the signal generation process, and makes the system have high operational stability and the ability to resist catastrophic errors.

Trading system is a long-term and stable profit system that has been proved by practice. It is complete, coherent and consistent. The trading system of the poor is incomplete, intermittent and inconsistent, and their trading behavior is chaotic. You can't see the connection between this transaction and the previous one. The whole transaction process seems to be a hammer in the east and a hammer in the west, and it is impossible to stabilize profits.

When the transaction produces considerable profits, it is also the period when investors are most likely to be psychologically shaken. At this point, investors tend to have a strong desire to close positions, rather than waiting for the trading system to give a signal to close positions. But on the whole, an objective system closing method of 100% is far superior to the closing point determined subjectively by individuals. The system can help investors overcome psychological vacillation, stick to existing positions, and not be shaken by strong market fluctuations until they get greater profits.

The biggest enemy of trading is not the market, but the trader himself. Every failure shows that it is not that the market is too smart, but that we are too smart and self-righteous. We are always defeated by our subjective emotions and desires in transactions. In order to avoid being troubled by subjective emotions, we must use a mechanical trading system to regulate our trading activities.

Operating with the system means buying and selling at any position, without any error, or you will never enter the market. Never mind the so-called fundamentals, technicalities and gossip. The theory of system operation is that no matter what causes the price change, it will eventually be reflected through the disk, and the trading system is only responsible for the disk.

(a) Advantages of using the trading system:

1. Eliminate people's emotions

2. Clear entrance and exit

3. Continuous trading becomes possible

4. Let the profit increase fully and minimize the loss.

(b) Shortcomings in the operation of the trading system:

1. Can only follow the trend.

2. When there is no trend, it is easy to cause losses.

Montaigne, a representative figure in the late French Renaissance, said: "The hardest thing for people to do is consistency, and the easiest thing to do is impermanence. Being a constant person is a big deal. "

When trading, the trader must run the transaction according to the system signal. If you continue to suffer setbacks, don't have any doubts about the effectiveness of the system, and unswervingly implement new trading signals. For example, if you run a transaction according to the system signal and make mistakes twice in a row, the system generates a third transaction signal, and you begin to doubt the system. You are still worried about the wrong transaction, but you are worried about the next transaction. So you didn't execute the third trading signal, but there was a vigorous market at this time. You missed the market because of your doubts about the system.

No system is absolutely perfect. We are not gods. If a trader can accurately grasp the timing of entering and leaving the market, isn't it easy to invest? In fact, the most successful investors in the world can't do this either. What we can do is to grasp the general trend of the market and make a profit before the market reverses.

The trading signal without failure is not credible, and the trading system without any "noise" is not credible, so it is not difficult for you to understand when we regard the first two wrong transactions just mentioned as the cost and price of capturing the third big market signal. I think it is understandable to lose money when trading, but missing the market is an unforgivable fatal mistake! A successful trader is a person who has confidence in subsequent signals and resolutely implements them after continuous failures.

Give up prediction, fear, greed and joy. Everything is decided by the trading system. Never give up when you encounter setbacks, because success is a last-minute visitor. When investors ask about the price trend, they usually take the following two forms: 1. People with long positions generally ask "Excuse me, will the price go up"; 2. People who hold short positions generally ask, "Will the price fall?". For this kind of problem, one of our core ideas is "Don't make any predictions about the price trend". We only react to price changes. We abide by the trading principle and do what the system says. If the market proves you wrong afterwards, modify your trading system. The trading system originally needs to be perfected in practice, and there can be no forever effective and universally applicable system.

The establishment of the trading system is humanized, and the implementation of the system is inhuman in a sense. Following the computer's trading instructions is a mechanical, monotonous, boring and lonely job, which requires traders to have great patience and will. Holding a huge amount of funds for a long time and enduring severe market fluctuations for a long time often make traders bear great pressure, which requires traders to restrain their strong desire to close positions with strong will. Really mechanically, unswervingly, 100% and faithfully execute every instruction issued by the computer.

Having been engaged in futures trading for 20 years, I feel that the essence of trading behavior is the confrontation of human nature. As long as the weakness of human nature is exposed in the market, the market will give you corresponding punishment. Therefore, before entering this market, we must first know ourselves, understand our weaknesses, such as greed, fear and so on, and then find appropriate ways to overcome them, and using the trading system is one of the best ways. The use of the trading system is to limit its own weaknesses to the minimum, because the system is complete, objective, orderly and quantitative, so it will make people know and do in one to some extent.