March 2007 12 20: 10 Haitong securities
Haitong Securities Yang Hongjie Company
The global economy continues to grow well, and the consumption of primary aluminum is still optimistic. In 2007, the American economy will grow slowly, while the economies of BRIC countries and Japan will still maintain a good momentum of development. The global economic development situation has not fundamentally changed, and the consumption of basic metals has remained strong.
Excessive expansion of alumina production capacity leads to oversupply and the price will run at a low level. The production capacity of new alumina projects has increased too fast, the output has increased at a high speed, and the price has dropped rapidly. The global alumina supply exceeds demand in the next two years will not be fundamentally changed. We expect that the global alumina price will mainly run at a low level. Due to the limited supply of raw materials and cost support, there is limited room for prices to continue to fall. In the future, the average price of alumina will remain at around 2400 yuan/ton.
The global supply and demand of primary aluminum are basically balanced, and speculative funds increase price fluctuations. In the next two years, the global supply and demand of electrolytic aluminum will be basically balanced, and we believe that the speculation of speculative funds has increased the price fluctuation. In the next few years, the global price of primary aluminum will decrease steadily. It is estimated that the average price in 2007 will be around 1.8 million yuan/ton, and in 2008 it will be around 1.7 million yuan/ton, while the price of primary aluminum denominated in US dollars will be US$ 2,400/ton and US$ 2,200/ton respectively.
In 2008, the supply of primary aluminum in China entered a shortage period. China's control over industries with high energy consumption, high pollution and resources shows that the new electrolytic aluminum production capacity in China will be limited in 2007. At the same time, good economic development ensures the growth rate of aluminum product consumption. We predict that China will enter a period of shortage of primary aluminum supply in 2008.
Industry profits have entered the stage of redistribution. Due to the overcapacity of alumina, the lower price of alumina leads to the redistribution of industry profits, while the demand for electrolytic aluminum and deep-processed products will continue to grow, and alumina-electrolytic aluminum-aluminum integrated enterprises will have more investment value and better profit prospects.
The pace of merger and reorganization of enterprises in electrolytic aluminum industry in China has accelerated. The continuous downturn of alumina market and the need to improve the industrial chain will promote the merger and reorganization of enterprises in China electrolytic aluminum industry, and the concentration of China electrolytic aluminum industry with China Aluminum as the core will be further improved. .. aluminum products deep processing enterprises entered a sustained boom cycle. Due to the export tax rebate and tariff adjustment of alumina and aluminum primary products, the price increase of primary products such as electrolytic aluminum will be restrained, and the profit prospects of aluminum alloy and aluminum deep-processing products manufacturers are promising.
Give the industry an "overweight" rating, focusing on Baotou Aluminum (20.27, 0.5 1, 2.58%)(600472), Xinjiang Zhonghe (30.37, 0.95, 3.23%)(600888) and Yunnan Aluminum (28.29, 2.58). It is suggested that aluminum processing enterprises with perfect industrial chain (including enterprises with production processes of electrolytic aluminum and deep-processed aluminum products) and simple electrolytic aluminum production enterprises also have good development in the short term. As S Lan Aluminum (14.6 1, 0.00, 0.00%) and S shandong aluminum industry (25.4 1, 0.00, 0.00%) are in the process of share reform and are not included in this analysis, China Aluminum (02600.HK)' s return to A shares will inject new ones into the aluminum sector.
Key points of investment
With the rapid growth of alumina production capacity in China and the world, alumina prices will continue to run at a low level; However, the new production capacity and consumption growth of electrolytic aluminum have maintained a good rhythm. As China is faced with the important task of reducing the consumption of unit GDP by 4% during the 11th Five-Year Plan period, it is estimated that the growth of electrolytic aluminum production capacity is limited, which will lead to high prices of electrolytic aluminum and deep-processed products. Judging from the international demand for electrolytic aluminum, the slight slowdown of global economic development in 2007 has little impact on demand, the consumption of aluminum products is still strong, and the profit expectations of electrolytic aluminum and deep processing enterprises are good.
We remind investors to pay attention to enterprises with complete industrial chain. As the electrolytic aluminum industry in China will face greater M&A opportunities in the future, the fundamentals of the industry are still improving, and the electrolytic aluminum industry is rated as "overweight". It is suggested to pay attention to Baotou Aluminum (600472. SH), Xinjiang Zhonghe (600888. SH), Yunnan Aluminum (000807. SZ) and Jiaozuo Wanfang (0006 12. SZ) Among China A-share listed companies. At the same time, Chinalco's return to the A-share market in 2007 will inject vitality into the aluminum industry, which is worth looking forward to.
Factors that support us to be optimistic about the industry
1. The rapid economic growth has maintained strong consumption of basic metals. According to the agency's forecast, the US economy will grow slowly in 2007, but the economic development of many countries, including China and Japan, is still good, so the consumption of basic metals will remain strong. We predict that the global economic development is still in a period of steady development, and there is no sign of recession. BRIC countries and other countries will still maintain a relatively fast development speed and will play an increasingly important role in world economic development. In the next few years, the overall price of electrolytic aluminum will be stable at a high level, about/kloc-0.8 million yuan/ton in 2007 and about/kloc-0.7 million yuan in 2008; The dollar price of primary aluminum will be 2400 USD/ton and 2200 USD/ton respectively.
2. It is predicted that the global alumina price will mainly run at a low level in 2007. The expansion of alumina production capacity caused by high alumina prices in previous years has prompted the global alumina industry to face a long-term oversupply situation. Different from other institutions' view that the alumina price will continue to fall, we predict that the global alumina price will run at a low level in 2007 under the influence of limited supply of raw materials and cost support. In the future, the price of alumina will remain at around 2400 yuan/ton. At the same time, the intensification of market volatility will promote the merger and reorganization of alumina enterprises in China, and the industrial concentration will be further improved. The merger and reorganization centered on China Aluminum Industry is the key to improve the concentration of electrolytic aluminum industry in China.
3. The global aluminum price will be slightly lower, and the demand for primary aluminum in China will be in short supply in 2008. Global aluminum prices will remain high, and will gradually decline slightly in the next two years. Capital speculation will increase the fluctuation range of aluminum prices. Due to the control of high energy consumption, high pollution and resource industries in China, it is expected that the release of new electrolytic aluminum production capacity in China will be limited in 2007. However, due to the sustained and rapid growth of demand for aluminum products, China will enter the cycle of primary aluminum shortage in 2008.
4. National regulatory policies will promote the redistribution of industry profits. Due to the overcapacity of alumina and the corresponding adjustment of the national tax policy on the import and export of alumina and aluminum primary products, the export of enterprises can only be profitable when the price difference between home and abroad is relatively large. Therefore, in the long run, the supply of alumina and aluminum primary products in China is abundant, and there is limited room for price increase; On the other hand, there are few export restrictions on aluminum alloys and aluminum deep-processed products, the export level can be maintained, domestic consumption is strong, and the profit prospects are promising. From this, we make the following judgments:
Alumina production enterprises: Due to the low market price of alumina, the profitability in 2007 was not good.
Electrolytic aluminum production enterprises: benefiting from the lower price of alumina, the profit prospect in 2007 is optimistic.
Alumina-electrolytic aluminum-aluminum products integrated enterprise: strong competitiveness, in an absolute dominant position in the industry.
Finally, on the basis of comprehensive consideration of various factors, the electrolytic aluminum industry is rated as "overweight", and the domestic A-share listed companies involved in alumina and electrolytic aluminum production and operation are analyzed. This paper mainly analyzes the recent operation, the biggest bright spot and the future growth source of Baotou Aluminum Industry (600472), a domestic dominant enterprise. SH), Xinjiang Zhonghe (600888. SH), Yunnan Aluminum (000807. SZ) and Jiaozuo Wanfang (0006 12. SZ)。 The return of China Aluminum (02600.HK) to A shares will inject new vitality into the aluminum industry.
Industry articles
1. The global economic development is still strong, and the overall consumption of primary aluminum continues to grow.
1. 1 Because of the excellent performance of aluminum itself, the application prospect of aluminum in economic development will be broader.
Because aluminum has the advantages of high strength, light weight, good electrical and thermal conductivity, corrosion resistance, long service life and recyclability, coupled with its good alloying ability, aluminum is used in almost all fields of economy. At present, the global aluminum production and consumption both exceed 30 million tons. According to the prediction of the International Aluminum Association, the global aluminum consumption will double by 2020.
Aluminum is mainly used in transportation, construction, packaging, electricity, machinery and other fields, but because China's economic development is at different stages from that of developed countries, the consumption proportion of aluminum in various fields is not the same. Generally speaking, because China is currently in the stage of heavy industrialization, the proportion of consumption in heavy industry is higher than that in developed countries, mainly concentrated in construction, electricity, machinery and other industries, while the proportion in packaging and transportation is low.
We believe that with the development of technology and economy, the demand for energy saving and consumption reduction will increase, and the application proportion of aluminum in transportation, construction, packaging and other industries will gradually increase, the application scope will be wider, and the dosage will gradually increase.
For the medium and long-term forecast, Alcoa analyzed the global aluminum production and consumption in 2020 in its 2005 annual report as follows:
Asia: The consumption reaches 365,438+0.6 million metric tons, which is equivalent to the current global consumption of primary aluminum, and the output increase will account for 60% of the world.
North America: By 2020, aluminum consumption will increase by 60% on the current basis.
South America: By 2020, aluminum consumption will increase by 50% on the current basis. Africa: The global production cost is the lowest, and the output of alumina will double to 2.8 million tons.
Europe: In 2020, aluminum consumption will reach15.8 million tons, of which aluminum consumption in western Europe will increase by 6 1% and that in eastern Europe by 60%.
Oceania: At present, the per capita annual consumption of aluminum in Australia is 37 pounds. Due to the abundant supply of raw materials, there is huge room for the development of alumina industry.
1.2 The stable economic development in China and Asia is the cornerstone of the global demand for primary aluminum.
China is the largest producer and consumer of primary aluminum in the world, and it is estimated that it will account for 27% and 25% of the world total in 2006. The production and consumption of primary aluminum in China have great influence on the global primary aluminum market. Asia, including China, has accounted for 37% and 45% of the world's production and consumption. It is predicted that the proportion of Asian primary aluminum consumption in the world will rise to more than 50% in the next few years.
In 2006, the economic GDP growth of China will reach 10.5%, and the consumption growth of electrolytic aluminum in China is expected to reach 20%. According to the forecast of the International Monetary Fund, the GDP growth of China will still be around 10% in 2007. According to the structure and stage of China's economic development, we think that the growth of China's demand for electrolytic aluminum will remain at around 18% in 2007.
According to the forecast of Haitong Research Institute, due to the increased control of the state on the rapid economic development, the GDP growth rate of China decreased slightly to 9.6% in 2007 and 2008, and it was 9. 1% and 8.8% in 2009 and 20 10 respectively. At the same time, the growth rate of demand for aluminum in China's economic development will gradually decrease. However, because China is in the stage of heavy industrialization and the requirement of energy saving and consumption reduction, the growth rate of demand decline is limited.
Judging from the proportion of demand for aluminum products in various industries in China, aluminum products are mainly used in construction, transportation, electric power, machinery, durable goods, packaging and other industries, with a total demand of more than 90%. Among them, construction, transportation, electricity and machinery are the four pillars of aluminum products demand, accounting for about 78% of the total demand. Therefore, we analyze the development of these four industries in China.
(1) Construction industry
The construction industry is mainly real estate and infrastructure construction. China's real estate industry is developing rapidly. Although the state has continuously introduced policies to stabilize the growth rate of real estate investment, the strong market demand supports the rapid development of the real estate industry, and the growth rate of real estate investment has basically remained above 20%. We believe that by 2008, the real estate investment in China will maintain a steady growth of about 20%, which will strongly support the consumption of aluminum.
According to the forecast of the Ministry of Construction of China, by 2020, the urbanization rate of China will reach 60%, and the per capita housing area will reach 35 square meters. If the natural population growth rate is 1% from 2005 to 2020, the population of China will reach10.5 billion by 2020 (the population of China in 2005 was 654.38+0.3 billion), and the total urban housing area will be 365.438+0.5 billion square meters. The Policy Research Center of the Ministry of Construction predicts that the per capita housing area of cities and towns in China is 26 square meters at present.
At present, the construction industry accounts for 30% of China's aluminum consumption. According to 2005, China consumed 7.08 million tons of primary aluminum, and the construction industry consumed 2 1.44 million tons of aluminum. In the next 15 years, the newly-built housing area in China will double on the basis of the current total housing area, and the consumption of aluminum will be very huge. In addition, the competitive advantage of aluminum alloy products will gradually be stronger than that of PVC and other materials, and the application scope of aluminum in the construction industry will gradually expand.
(2) Transportation industry
The transportation industry includes automobile, rail transit and plane transportation. China's automobile industry is developing rapidly and domestic consumption is booming. In recent years, the growth of supply and demand has maintained a high speed except in 2005. During the period of 20061-1,China's automobile production and sales were 6,592,400 and 6,454,800 respectively, with growth rates of 27.92% and 25.49% respectively.
Among them, the performance of passenger cars is more prominent, with production and sales of 4,734,500 vehicles and 4,665,438 vehicles +0.6 million vehicles respectively, up by 34.06% and 309,654,380 +0% respectively. According to Zhang Xiaoyu, chairman of China Automotive Engineering Society, China's automobile output is expected to exceed 8 million vehicles in 2007, surpassing Japan to become the second largest automobile producer in the world, and will exceed 6,543,800 vehicles in 2065.438+00.
According to Wei Jianguo, Vice Minister of Commerce of China, China's goal is to achieve 10% of the total world automobile trade in about10 years, that is, to achieve the export scale of12 billion US dollars. In 2005, China's automobile and spare parts exports were only109.3 billion US dollars, and there is still a lot of room for development. It can be seen that there is huge room for the development of China automobile industry in the future, which will drive the growth of primary aluminum consumption.
With the development of subway, light rail and other rail transit in major cities in China, the demand for aluminum for rail trains is also increasing. At present, due to the backward development of China's aircraft industry, China's aircraft aluminum consumption accounts for a small proportion of the total demand. However, with the developed countries in Europe and America gradually establishing parts production bases in China and the development of China's own civil aviation industry, China's aircraft aluminum consumption will continue to rise.
Aircraft is an industry with a large proportion of aluminum. In order to reduce weight, aluminum is one of the main raw materials for aircraft fuselage, and about 50% of aircraft components are made of aluminum. Airbus Europe believes that from 2006 to 2025, the world will need about 22,700 new passenger planes and cargo planes, worth 2.6 trillion US dollars. More importantly, the demand for new civil airliners with higher fuel efficiency will increase in the next 20 years, which will prompt more than 65,438+02,000 aircraft to be replaced by new aircraft. JohnLeahy, chief operating officer of Airbus customers, said: In the next 20 years, the number of global passenger planes will increase by more than 1 times.
According to the fact that aluminum consumption in China's transportation industry accounted for 23% of the total consumption in 2005, it can be calculated that the aluminum consumption in transportation industry in 2005 was 6,543,800+628,400 tons. The global automobile industry is developing towards lightweight. According to the study of commercial vehicles, the fuel consumption can be reduced by 6%-7% for every reduction of vehicle mass 1000kg. It is reported that if the mass of American cars is reduced by 25%, the fuel consumption will be reduced by 13%, 270 million barrels of oil will be saved a year, and the carbon dioxide emission will be reduced by 1.0 1 100 million tons. At present, the aluminum consumption per unit of automobiles in the world has developed from 65438+6 1kg in190 to 120kg now, and the aluminum consumption per unit of automobiles in developed countries such as the United States and Japan has reached 150kg. From the perspective of technological development, the consumption proportion of aluminum in China automobile industry will continue to increase, and the growth rate of consumption will be greater than that of automobile production.
(3) Power industry
The application of aluminum in power industry is mainly transmission lines. Because the conductivity of aluminum with the same weight is twice that of copper, and the difference between copper and aluminum is great, most transmission lines are made of aluminum. Due to the shortage of power supply caused by China's economic development, China has vigorously developed its power industry in recent years. During the Tenth Five-Year Plan period, the average annual growth of power generation equipment in China was as high as 49%, and the output reached 92 million kilowatts in 2005, setting a world record. It is estimated that the power generation in 2006 will exceed 6,543.8 billion kilowatts. According to experts' calculation, by the end of the 11th Five-Year Plan, if the projects under construction and proposed will continue to be invested, 500 million kilowatts will be installed and put into operation in the next few years, and China's power production capacity will reach 654.38+billion kilowatts by then. It is predicted that in the next few years, the power transmission in China will have a rapid development, the consumption of transmission lines will also be greatly improved, and the consumption of aluminum will increase significantly.
(4) machinery industry
The machinery industry has developed rapidly in recent years, and the future development situation is good. During the 11th Five-Year Plan period, the main goal of China's economic development is to reduce energy consumption per unit output value and build a harmonious society. Therefore, China will continue to vigorously develop agriculture, increase infrastructure investment and promote urbanization, so the demand for agricultural machinery, construction machinery and special machinery will gradually increase, and the demand for aluminum will also increase rapidly.
Agricultural development is still the "highlight" of China's economic development. With the popularization of agricultural science and technology and scale in China, the development prospect of agricultural machinery is broad.
During the "Eleventh Five-Year Plan" period, China will continue to strengthen infrastructure construction, and by 20 10, the scale of railway network will reach about 85,000 kilometers; The total mileage of the highway network is about 2.3 million kilometers, including 65,000 kilometers of expressways, which basically forms the skeleton of the national expressway network; From the perspective of water transportation, the throughput of coastal ports reached 4.4 billion tons, of which the container throughput reached 65.438+0.25 billion TEUs; From the perspective of civil aviation, the total number of civil airports is about 180, with more than 2,000 transport planes; From the perspective of pipelines, more than 50,000 kilometers of oil and gas pipelines have been built; From the perspective of urban traffic, the mileage of subway and light rail in megacities exceeds 1500 km.
During the "Eleventh Five-Year Plan" period, China will continue to accelerate the pace of urbanization, urban infrastructure investment will increase rapidly, and construction machinery will continue to develop rapidly.
1.3 The global economic development is still in a good period, and the cooling of the American economy will not hinder the world's progress.
According to the report "World Economic Situation and Prospects in 2007" published by the United Nations on June 5438+1October 10, 2007, after maintaining a historical high-speed growth for three consecutive years, the growth rate in 2007 will slow down and it is expected to achieve a "soft landing". According to the report, due to the slowdown of American economic growth, the world economic growth rate is expected to be 3.2% in 2007, compared with 4% in 2005 and 3.8% in 2006. According to the report, China has become one of the main promoters of world economic growth after the United States.
According to the research report released by the conference committee of famous American research institutions on June 5438+1October 65438+1October 0 1, the world economy will maintain rapid growth in 2007, although the American economy may continue to be weakened by the real estate market. The agency believes that although the economic growth rate of the United States has slowed down due to the cooling of the housing market, it will not slip into recession. The decline in gasoline prices brought about by the continuous decline in international oil prices is conducive to increasing consumer confidence and purchasing power, which will bring at least one percentage point increase in private consumption in the United States. In addition, it is expected that the long-term interest rate in the United States will fall in 2007, which will also help stimulate private consumption. Private consumption expenditure accounts for about two-thirds of the total American economy and is the main force to promote American economic growth. Gail Fossler, vice chairman and chief economist of the Conference Committee, said that the main driving force of world economic growth is changing from one pole in the United States to multi-poles. The revived European economy, the growing economies of China and India, and the sustained strong demand for agricultural products and commodities in other emerging markets have brought about economic growth, making the current world economy in the most diversified state in the past 30 years. This new change has changed the single-engine model in which an American company led the world economy. Although this change has not yet been fully formed, the economic expansion of other major economies outside the United States provides an opportunity to correct the global consumption and trade imbalance.
We believe that the economic development of other countries except the United States has brought new strength to the world economic development and will promote the world economic development more permanently. In 2005, the output and consumption of primary aluminum in North America accounted for 15.8% and 22.7% of the global total, respectively. The economic slowdown in the United States will have a certain impact on the demand for primary aluminum, but the strong economic development in Asia and Europe will offset the decline in the demand for primary aluminum in the United States to some extent.
2. The global alumina supply has entered the surplus stage.
2. 1 China alumina supply will move from insufficient to surplus.
Over the years, the output of alumina in China has been unable to meet the needs of electrolytic aluminum production. In 2005, China imported 7.02 million tons of alumina, and in 2006, the net alumina import was 6350 1.7 1 10,000 tons. It is estimated that the annual import of alumina is 6.9 million tons, namely 1.7 1. The decline of alumina import in China is worthy of attention.
The long-term shortage of alumina supply in China has finally been improved. Driven by the sharp increase in the price of alumina in the early stage, the production capacity of new alumina projects is huge, and the situation of short supply in the future will be changed. According to the latest statistics, the output of alumina in China increased by 50.9% in June 2006, reaching165438+220,000 tons. In June 2006, the output of alumina was11960,000 tons, up 53.9% year-on-year. In June, 2006, China's primary aluminum output was 8,278,400 tons, only increasing by 18.8% year-on-year, which was much lower than the growth rate of alumina output.
According to the latest incomplete statistics, there are 24 alumina projects planned and newly built in China, with a total planned scale of 26.48 million tons/year, of which 22 projects have been started, with a total construction scale of15.03 million tons/year. By the end of the 11th Five-Year Plan, the total alumina production capacity in China will reach more than 30 million tons.
According to Antaike's statistics, the electrolytic aluminum projects under construction in China are 1 1, and the total construction capacity is1120,000 tons.
In addition, there are 10 proposed projects, with a total production capacity of10.4 million tons. If all these projects are completed and put into production, it is estimated that the annual production capacity of electrolytic aluminum will reach110.6 million tons in 2006,10.25 million tons in 2007, and the total production capacity will reach more than10.3 million tons in 2006, when the actual output will reach/kloc-0. However, it should be noted that even if all120,000 tons of electrolytic aluminum is produced from domestic alumina, China's alumina output will still exceed 2 million tons, and China will turn from insufficient alumina supply to surplus.
It is worth noting that during the Eleventh Five-Year Plan period, the state put the quality of economic development in the first place and strengthened the control of industries with high energy consumption, high pollution and resources. The main purpose of developing these industries is to meet the needs of domestic economic development and limit investment for the purpose of exporting primary products. According to the influence of national macroeconomic policies on electrolytic aluminum industry in China, it is predicted that the output and consumption of electrolytic aluminum will be the same in the next few years, with a slight import. In this case, China's alumina production capacity will undoubtedly grow too fast, and the state's export control on alumina will become more and more strict. China's alumina production enterprises will face the situation of insufficient start-up and some small enterprises will withdraw from the market.
In 2007, the production and consumption of alumina in China were basically the same, with a slight import. In 2008, the fundamentals of alumina supply and demand in China will change, and the supply exceeds demand. In addition, it is predicted that the international alumina market price will be at a low level, and China alumina production enterprises will enter a relatively difficult year, and the market price trend may reproduce the nightmare experienced by China steel market in 2005.
2.2 China alumina production growth is limited by the supply of raw materials, and there is limited room for price reduction.
China is a country with a relative shortage of bauxite resources. The bauxite reserves are 532 million tons, accounting for only 2.3% of the world's reserves, and the per capita bauxite reserves are 400kg, which is only 10% of the global average. China bauxite not only has a small total reserves, but more than 90% of bauxite resources are sedimentary diaspore, which belongs to low-grade ore with high aluminum, high silicon and low iron, and can be developed and utilized rarely. In recent years, China has not invested much in bauxite exploration and development, and the output growth is limited, so the release degree of new alumina production capacity will mainly depend on the supply of imported raw materials. In 2006, the output of alumina in China is expected to be13.5 million tons, and11960,000 tons in October, up 53.85% year-on-year, while China imported 8.699 million tons of bauxite, up 370.60% year-on-year. It is estimated that the new output of alumina in China will reach 5.5 million tons in 2007. According to the calculation of alumina and bauxite 2: 1, bauxite1/10,000 tons will be needed in 2007. If all the new bauxite demand is imported from abroad, it is equivalent to doubling the import volume in 2006, and it is very difficult to achieve this import goal. At the same time, due to the rapid growth of bauxite imports, the price of imported bauxite has been strongly supported, thus increasing the cost of domestic alumina production enterprises.
According to the analysis of institutional researchers, in the next two or three years, nearly 8-9 million tons of alumina production capacity will be permanently eliminated in the world, including about 6,543.8+0.8 million tons in China. The main factors to eliminate alumina production capacity are the low global alumina price and backward equipment technology. Eliminating backward production capacity will alleviate the global alumina oversupply to some extent and prevent the alumina price from falling further.
2.3 With the increase of global alumina production capacity (excluding China), there will be downward pressure on alumina prices.
Judging from the current situation, the global alumina output will increase by about 9.7% in 2006, reaching 67154,000 tons. Except for China, the growth of alumina production capacity in other parts of the world is expected to be around 1.9%. It is predicted that in 2008 and 2009, the global alumina production will continue to be surplus, and the price will be difficult to rebound. According to the latest statistics, the global alumina output (excluding China, the same below) was 3.25 million tons in 2007, 3 1.5 million tons in 2008, 8 1.3 million tons in 2009 and 8.56 million tons in 2009. Considering the alumina market situation and the possibility of project construction and production, we predict that the global alumina output, including China, will maintain rapid growth in the next few years, with the growth rate reaching 8% in 2007 and dropping to 5% in 2008.
Corresponding to the growth rate of alumina production, the global electrolytic aluminum production will continue to grow steadily. We predict that in the next few years, the growth rate of global electrolytic aluminum production will remain around 6%, which is mainly due to the demand for aluminum from global economic growth and China's macro-control of electrolytic aluminum industry.
For global alumina production and demand, it is difficult for alumina prices to get out of the sustained downturn in the next few years, and the market situation of oversupply is difficult to change. In 2006, the global alumina output was about 654.38+800,000 tons, and in 2008, the global alumina output was about 654.38+800,000 tons, and the alumina price was under continuous downward pressure.
According to the forecast of research institutions, the global average price of alumina was 3 16.26 USD/ton in 2007 and 228.53 USD/ton in 2008. We predict that due to the continuous growth of alumina production in China, China's alumina imports will gradually decrease, and international alumina prices may continue to fall, with an average price of 2,600 yuan/ton in 2007 and 2,200 yuan/ton in 2008.
3. The global supply and demand of primary aluminum is basically balanced, and the price is consolidating at a high level.
3. 1 The supply of primary aluminum in China will change from surplus to shortage, and the pricing power will be enhanced.
According to the national "Eleventh Five-Year" economic development ideas, the ultimate goal is to achieve sound and rapid development of the national economy. "Good and fast" means to achieve rapid economic development on a good basis, so reducing energy consumption per unit GDP will be an important task for China's economic development. On June 5438- 10, 2006, the state raised the export tariff of primary products such as electrolytic aluminum to 15%, while the import tariff of alumina was lowered to 3%, in order to prevent the export of primary products with high energy consumption. Since a few years ago, the state has made great efforts to regulate and control electrolytic aluminum and other industries, and cooled down investment in electrolytic aluminum and other industries. After several years of exploration, the state's efforts and means to regulate and control investment in overheated industries have also changed. From the initial key inspection to the present comprehensive measures such as environmental protection, land, credit and electricity price, it has the characteristics of comprehensiveness, effectiveness and continuity, and has a far-reaching impact on the development of the industry. During the "Eleventh Five-Year Plan" period, the state will continue to strictly control the capacity growth of energy-consuming industries such as electrolytic aluminum, and the development of these industries will focus on meeting domestic demand and will not encourage exports.
Based on the above macro-policy analysis, we predict that the output of electrolytic aluminum in China will increase by 14% in 2007, that is,105000 tons, and will drop to about 7% in 2008, that is,1200000 tons. We believe that the demand for electrolytic aluminum in China will continue to increase by about 18% in 2007, reaching about10.003 million tons, and will reach10/63.48 million tons in 2008, with a growth rate of 16%. It is worth noting that in 2002, China changed from a net importer of primary aluminum to an importer and exporter of primary aluminum. However, in recent years, the demand growth rate of primary aluminum is faster than the output growth rate, and China will become a net importer of primary aluminum again in 2008.
China is the largest producer and consumer of primary aluminum in the world. At present, China's primary aluminum consumption accounts for 25% of the world's total and contributes 60% to the global primary aluminum growth. With the growth of China's primary aluminum production and consumption, China's voice in the world primary aluminum market will be strengthened day by day, and the future changes in China market will have a great impact on the global market. Since 2006, the price of raw aluminum in Shanghai Futures Exchange has basically changed synchronously with LME, and sometimes even ahead of the price change. This shows that with the production and demand of primary aluminum in China accounting for an increasing proportion in the global primary aluminum market, the China factor is becoming the main reason for the price change in the global primary aluminum market.
We believe that with the acceleration of the merger and reorganization of electrolytic aluminum enterprises in China, the largest and strongest aluminum company in the world will be born in China market, and the change of China primary aluminum market will have an increasingly important impact on the global primary aluminum market, and may lead the future development of the global primary aluminum market, which is also a sign that China aluminum industry is maturing.
3.2 The global supply and demand of electrolytic aluminum is basically balanced.
Merrill Lynch Group predicts that the world electrolytic aluminum output will be slightly insufficient in 2006. In 2007, the global supply and demand of electrolytic aluminum is expected to increase by 6.5% and 5.6% respectively. In 2007 and 2008, the global supply of electrolytic aluminum will be surplus and the price will be lower. The 2005 annual report of Alcoa, the world's largest aluminum manufacturing company, believes that by 2020, the consumption of primary aluminum in Asia will reach the current global consumption, and the global consumption of primary aluminum will double on the current basis.
We predict that the BRIC countries, including China, will continue to maintain the rapid growth of demand for electrolytic aluminum, thus ensuring the growth of global consumption of electrolytic aluminum. In the next few years, the global supply and demand of electrolytic aluminum will be basically balanced, and the future market price will fluctuate slightly. The spot price of electrolytic aluminum will remain at 1.8 million yuan/ton in 2007, and will be slightly reduced to 1.7 million yuan/ton in 2008. The dollar price of primary aluminum will be 2400 USD/ton and 2200 USD/ton respectively. The reasons for the gradual decline of aluminum price include the slight surplus of global primary aluminum supply in 2007 and 2008, the appreciation of RMB, and the slow economic growth in developed countries to reduce the support for primary aluminum consumption.
3.3 Global aluminum prices will continue to run at a high level.
In the past year, the global supply and demand of primary aluminum was basically balanced, but driven by strong demand, the global price of primary aluminum continued to rise.
Recently, there are great differences on the future trend of global primary aluminum prices. We believe that the global supply of primary aluminum will be surplus in 2008, but it is still under control. After the low price operation of 18, the three-month aluminum price of LME reached a record high on May 6, 2006.
References:
/stock/hyyj/200703 12/20 103398836 . shtml