1. In the context of accelerating global energy transformation and upgrading, as the cleanest fossil energy, the strength of the liquefied gas market continues.
2. The growth rate of China's natural gas production is not as fast as that of consumption, which leads to the increasing dependence of China's natural gas on foreign countries.
3. The influence of international natural gas on China natural gas market is increasing. Under the background that the price of natural gas abroad continues to rise, the price of liquefied gas in China also rises.
The substitution of natural gas for liquefied gas can not be ignored. Due to frequent natural disasters in the United States this year, especially Hurricane Ida landed in the Gulf of Mexico, the supply of natural gas in the United States has shrunk dramatically. Nearly a week after the hurricane, the US Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement said that 89.25% of the natural gas production in the Gulf of Mexico is still in short supply.
The tight balance of international supply and demand fundamentals keeps the import cost high, with propane at $665/ton, up $5/ton from last month; Butane was 665 USD/ton, up 10 USD/ton from last month. The landed cost of propane is about 4956 yuan/ton, and the landed cost of butane is about 4956 yuan/ton. High import costs still support the market.
From the domestic supply side, according to Longzhong data, it is expected that the market supply will increase slightly in the second half of the year, and the expected output will be around 654.38+03.76 million tons, an increase of 640,000 tons compared with the first half of the year. The increase of 5% is mainly due to the overhaul of some enterprises, and the decrease is obvious. On the demand side, as the temperature drops and the terminal consumption capacity improves, the downstream procurement efforts and procurement cycle will improve in the fourth quarter, and civil fuel consumption is expected to improve. The profit of C4 demand chemical industry has rebounded, but the operating rate is not optimistic. There are many PDH maintenance plans, and the demand for propane is still expected to decline.
The spot price remains high, or it will crowd out some chemical demand, which will offset the increase in demand brought by the peak season to some extent. Although the demand for LPG in domestic chemical industry has been restrained in the short term, the medium-term prospect is still optimistic due to the commissioning of new chemical plants and the expected improvement of domestic oil blending demand. In short, the international natural gas price hit a new high in nearly three years, boosting LPG demand through substitution effect. Under the support of the external market, the domestic LPG import cost remains high, which supports the domestic spot and futures market to operate at a high level. At the same time, with the arrival of the seasonal peak season, the downstream demand of domestic civil combustion and chemical industry is expected to improve and become the driving force of LPG market outlook. However, in the second half of the year, there are still high uncertainties in global epidemic prevention and control and macro level. In addition, the long and short factors in the cost-side crude oil market have entered a high shock point, and the trend is still not completely clear. It is necessary to be alert to the potential risks affecting LPG trays.