Has the international oil price fallen below the 100 mark? It is reported that the futures price of light crude oil for August delivery in the New York Mercantile Exchange fell below the 100 mark and closed at $99.50 per barrel; London Brent crude oil futures for September delivery fell 10.73 USD to close at 102.77 USD per barrel. The biggest declines in both oil pans exceeded 10%, hitting a new low of nearly three months.
At the same time, energy shortage has aggravated market anxiety. Since 202 1, the price of natural gas in Europe has increased by about 700%. The latest quarterly report on natural gas market released by the International Energy Agency shows that global natural gas consumption will decrease slightly this year and increase slowly in the following years due to soaring prices and possible further reduction of Russian natural gas supply.
What happened to the international oil price that hit a three-month low? We must understand that the core reason for the current decline in international oil prices is that before the overall market sentiment has changed, everyone feels that the overall market sentiment is in a relatively optimistic state, demand is increasing, but supply continues to be insufficient. The final result is that the contradiction between supply and demand directly leads to the international oil price problem.
However, we have to understand a core issue, that is, whether the demand will continue to rise before the overall expectation of economic recovery is relatively clear, so we have every reason to believe that the demand will continue to increase, which is the core reason for the continuous rise of international oil prices.
We can see that for the current market as a whole, what everyone is most worried about is the decline of the development of the entire international economic market. In many places, there have been different degrees of inflation and even signs of economic recession, which has actually brought great pressure to many people. If the phenomenon of economic recession is really hit, it is likely to lead to insufficient effective demand.
Once there is insufficient demand, the impact on international oil prices will be very obvious. Even if the current international market supply does not reach the normal level, as long as the effective demand drops, the international market supply will gradually return to normal, thus pushing the international oil price into the downward channel.
For the current international oil price, although we may see the decline of international oil price, it may still be a big problem whether it can fall to the price of 30 to 40 dollars or even lower, because the current international oil supply is still in a state of continuous shortage. Although there may be some downward pressure on the economy, which will drive the international oil price down, we have every reason to believe that as long as the international oil supply is not effectively restored, the international oil price may remain at a high level.
Of course, this high level is not what we talk about every day. One or two hundred dollars, but the high level of seventy or eighty dollars is definitely lower than before, but it is almost impossible to drop to thirty or forty dollars in 2020. However, the good news is that as long as the international oil price can come down, at least the cost of refueling can be further reduced, we still hope to see the price of refined oil come down, which is something we are quite happy about.