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Comments on needles hidden in cotton

In the recent market, the rise in cotton prices has undoubtedly become the focus of market attention. There is nothing scary about the rise in itself. What is scary is that the price of cotton changes every day, which is undoubtedly worthy of vigilance. More importantly, the surge in global commodities due to the surge in domestic cotton prices may in turn have a very negative impact on our market. News from relevant markets showed that U.S. Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) cotton futures closed at the daily limit on Monday and hit a record high. Analysts said part of the reason was strong gains in Chinese cotton futures. In addition to cotton, soybean prices in the international market have also risen. An important reason is the news that the U.S. Department of Agriculture said in a statement that U.S. exporters exported 300,000 tons of soybeans to China. Market analysts pointed out that China's strong demand has supported world soybean prices.

Hyping "China's demand" is undoubtedly a major means of international hot money in recent years. From the initial refined oil and rice to now cotton and soybeans, it seems that whatever China needs, the price will rise. At present, we have been steadily advancing the formation mechanism of the RMB exchange rate, improving the managed floating exchange rate system, and giving full play to the role of market supply and demand to a greater extent. The main purpose is not to have an excessive blow to export-oriented enterprises. However, the rising cost of raw materials will still hit these companies from another angle, which undoubtedly shows the complexity of the current world financial environment from one aspect.

Generally speaking, the rising prices of resource commodities are not necessarily related to international tensions and the so-called "Chinese demand" factors. Price increases caused by demand factors will still be reflected in the fundamentals of supply and demand. Obviously, the current international market is far away from the traditional fundamentals of supply and demand. The real “culprit” is the depreciating U.S. dollar. For the relevant government departments, it is necessary to fully understand the complexity of the current financial situation, especially to resolutely crack down on some speculators who take advantage of the opportunity to make a fortune. At the same time, some measures should be taken to stabilize market supply. Only in this way can speculators be dealt a fatal blow.

Otherwise, once the price rise comes, it will undoubtedly cause great harm to the Chinese economy