Due to the sharp drop in international oil prices, the negative range of this round of change rate has been greatly widened. According to Jin Lianchuang's calculation, as of the fifth working day of March 10, the average price of reference crude oil varieties was USD 45.79/barrel, with a change rate of-14.79%, and the corresponding gasoline and diesel oil should be lowered by 600 yuan/ton. In terms of wholesale and retail price difference, the price adjustment of refined oil ran aground on March 3, and the domestic retail price limit of refined oil has remained stable since February 19. However, due to the downward trend of the domestic wholesale market, the price difference between wholesale and retail has gradually increased. According to Jinlianchuang's monitoring theory data, as of March 10, the price difference between gasoline wholesale and retail was 2 188 yuan/ton, up 205 yuan/ton from the end of February; The wholesale and retail price difference of diesel oil was 852 yuan/ton, up from the end of February 143 yuan/ton.
This round of retail price reduction can be said to be a foregone conclusion. If the rebound of crude oil is weak, then the reduction of retail price will catch up with the thousand yuan mark. ? Zou Xuelian, an analyst of Jinlianchuang refined oil products, said.
Jia Ruibin, director of Tianfeng Futures Research Institute, said that the price adjustment window of domestic refined oil prices will open in a week, which coincides with the sharp drop of crude oil by more than 20% during this period. It is expected that the price of refined oil will also drop sharply. The price reduction is expected to surpass that of 500 yuan. If the market is fierce, the 5 yuan era may reappear. In the domestic wholesale market, Zou Xuelian said that at present, the collapse of international oil prices has not caused excessive panic in the domestic market, but the negative impact is still inevitable. In addition, domestic enterprises have resumed work, but the downstream demand has recovered slowly, making it difficult to support the market obviously. Under the influence of negative factors, the price of gasoline and diesel oil in Shandong refinery fluctuated and fell, and the main business in some areas increased the amount of foreign mining. With the easing of cost pressure, gasoline and diesel prices also fell. However, employees' early inventory consumption is limited, and the market's willingness to replenish goods is not high.
Looking at the market outlook, Zou Xuelian analyzed that the retail price of domestic refined oil products may drop sharply next Tuesday. Therefore, after the retail price is lowered at 24: 00 on March 17, the price difference between wholesale and retail will be significantly reduced, and the operating profit of gas stations will be significantly reduced. If some oil-producing countries start to fight price wars and express their intention to increase production, international oil prices will continue to be under pressure. If the average international crude oil price falls below $40/barrel, the next round of retail prices of refined oil products will face a lockout. But in the short term, it is difficult for the demand side to improve significantly. After the social inventory is replenished to a high level, the refinery and the main unit will still face the situation of poor delivery. Therefore, it is expected that there will still be some downward pressure on the domestic gasoline and diesel market in March, and the price difference between wholesale and retail will rise slowly again when the retail price limit remains unchanged.