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Bitcoin prices plummeted before the opening of the US stock market in the new week. Do you think bitcoin is a bubble economy?
At present, the bitcoin bubble is serious and may plummet, so be cautious when entering the market. But unlike tulips, it will slowly rise again after falling, rather than collapse.

Because the total amount of bitcoin is limited. Mining costs are getting higher and higher. But also can be stored for a long time at low cost. At the same time, about 40% of Bitcoin is in the hands of very few people, which can achieve a high degree of control.

You can look at Bitcoin this way:

A thing that is useless to eggs, highly controlled, limited in total, and increasingly difficult to dig. Because it hasn't been realized yet? Use value? , leading to more and more people mining to buy. So it has a real one? Collection value? .

Bitcoin may not be a widely circulated currency, but it is not a tulip. You can think of it as a collection with no eggs but firm prices (in the long run).

About 40% of Bitcoin is in the hands of very few people who know each other and can achieve a high degree of control. And they are all early geeks and technicians, not speculators. Is this right? Collection? It's actually a good thing. A high degree of control is an important reason for the strong prices of many luxury goods and collectibles.

Many people think that high control is a bad thing, because he doesn't realize that Bitcoin is a collectible. They think: You use it? Bitcoin is the perfect currency for decentralization? The concept of cheating me into admission turned out to be a highly controlled and naturally deflationary thing, and later generations carried sedan chairs for their predecessors. I entered, the price went up and you made money. This is the Ponzi scheme.

This is also where bitcoin is distorted in propaganda. Because the followers of Bitcoin are mostly technical streams, they don't think Bitcoin is a collection. They are excited about blockchain technology. Do they really think bitcoin is huge? Use value? They are also proud of their gains in the skyrocketing. But what they don't know is that the soaring price of Bitcoin is actually lifted by institutional speculators who have seen through its collection and speculation attributes (rather than its use value).

Interesting, isn't it?

Blockchain technology is great, but it is different from Bitcoin. Blockchain technology was born out of Satoshi Nakamoto's paper on Bitcoin, but its significance and application prospect far exceed Bitcoin itself. If Bitcoin is useless in the future, it will not affect the greatness of blockchain technology. Doesn't the wide application of blockchain technology and its revolutionary significance represent bitcoin? Use value? I believe it will work. These are two different things, and many people confuse them.

Let's talk about Bitcoin itself.

What does Bitcoin claim at present? Use value? Only a little has been achieved, and most of it has been used in black market and money laundering. But its? Collection value? But it's getting solid.

Please note that the current price of Bitcoin does not reflect its reality? Collection value? There are too many speculators and the bubble is serious. But will the increase in the number of tourists actually improve? Collection value? .

Many people say that the limited amount of bitcoin will lead to hoarding rather than using, which will eventually lead to deflation. Therefore, Bitcoin cannot become a currency in circulation. Bitcoin has no value.

This sentence is only half right. It is precisely because everyone is hoarding that bitcoin is really difficult to become a real currency in circulation. But what is this? Collection value? Incarnation

Collectibles are also divided into two categories. One is that everyone knows it has collectible value, such as Mona Lisa's smile. The other is that only people who recognize this thing in the circle think it is valuable for collection, while ordinary people don't recognize it at all, and may even think that the whole circle is sick. For example, when I was in college, I thought it was disgusting for my roommate to collect basketball shoes. Buy so many shoes, never wear them, play with them, and sell them at high prices when they are short of money. It seems that the whole shoe ring is sick.

Bitcoin belongs to the latter (although more and more people accept Bitcoin). Therefore, there are bound to be many people who don't think Bitcoin is collectible, just as I don't think basketball shoes are collectible. People who play with shoes will form a circle by themselves, and then gradually expand. But no matter how it expands, there will always be many people who don't recognize its value.

So how is the collection value of Bitcoin formed? We can imagine this:

One day, scientists discovered a kind of ruby, which is a brand-new substance.

It is of little use value and can be used for decoration, but it is actually not better than artificial red crystal.

And this ruby has proved that the reserves of the whole earth are only 2 1 ton. The whole surface is irregularly distributed. Mining will become more and more difficult.

So, as long as it's because of something, is it already possible? The concept that was created? It has been developed in large quantities and used by celebrities for decoration or collection. Then this limited amount of rubies will have a preliminary collection value, which will be sought after.

With more and more people entering the collection, its collection value is getting higher and higher, and finally it is stable at a certain transaction price. Because of its scarcity, it is difficult to collapse.

Speculation will make its transaction price soar in a short time. However, due to its scarcity, if these bubbles are squeezed out, the price will not collapse, but will return to the normal collection value. And many times the hype skyrocketed-then the bubble burst-and then continued to double until the next bubble, which showed its power very dramatically. The influence of this on the public psychology is actually conducive to the spiral rise of its collection value. Kind of like buying a house. In recent years, house prices first fell and then soared, which made the public more determined to buy a house and get on the bus. ? Won't you fall to death? It makes people feel more secure than rising all the time. )

This ruby is bitcoin.

As for other virtual currencies.

It is equivalent to a businessman seeing the successful case of the above ruby. I hurried to the scientist and found sapphires, blackberries, emeralds and so on. The total reserve of each gem is limited.

Merchants claim that they can also copy the miracle of ruby. But in fact, the chance of success is very small, and it is easy to be cut into leeks blindly entering the market.

Because there is a difficulty that must be overcome, that is, many people must accept it in the initial stage and form a certain range of universal recognition, that is? An imaginary community? . The board can be stabilized. Otherwise, no matter how high the price is, it will be a bubble. This has nothing to do with technology.

Bitcoin is not technically more advanced than other virtual currencies, but it has a first-Mover advantage, which many people accepted from the beginning.

What cat-keeping game did Ethereum play recently, just to attract a large number of new people. Only when enough people accept Ethereum can Ethereum replicate the success of Bitcoin and escape the danger of the bubble.

So, do you want to invest in Bitcoin now?

Do you need to judge in the future? Collection value? Up or down.

What you should pay attention to is: its? Collection value? Not by ourselves, but by the enthusiasm and universal recognition of the public. This is always changing.

From the perspective of currency holders, the more people buy, the better, which will lead to bitcoin? Collection value? Stand up.

Many coin owners strongly advocate bitcoin and blow shit into gold. With the success of the publicity, more and more people bought coins, and shit really turned into gold. Advocacy is no longer advocacy, but telling the truth. Is this paradox also said by Soros? Reflexive principle? Incarnation This is also the most painful and unacceptable thing for speculative rational people.

At present, I personally feel that the price is too high, short-term speculators chase too much, and there are some bubbles. Be cautious in investing. You can buy some at the next plunge and collect them for a long time.

Don't believe any of the following statements:

1, Bitcoin is the perfect currency for future circulation, and it has extremely high use value, so it is very valuable.

2. Bitcoin is a flicker and has no use value, so it is worthless.

One answer is that bitcoin is like a diamond. Very similar.

Diamonds? Use value? (stands for eternal love), which was hyped by De Beers in the last century. Before that, diamonds were worthless. The total supply of diamonds is monopolized by giants such as De Beers. (See: Is Diamond the most wonderful marketing scam in the world in the 20th century? Really worthless? There are many great answers to this question. )

De Beers has always claimed that diamonds are the strongest objects and can symbolize eternity. People gradually accepted it.

Satoshi Nakamoto developed Bitcoin, believing that its decentralization and blockchain technology are suitable as a perfect electronic currency in the future (the title of the original paper is "A Peer-to-Peer Electronic Cash System"). This view has been accepted by more and more people with the expansion and publicity of Bitcoin believers. There are still a large number of people who don't understand anything and feel that they have risen sharply, so they bought Bitcoin. After buying it, I will reverse rationalization and convince myself to accept the concept that Bitcoin is a perfect electronic currency.

so this is it? An imaginary community? The process of formation. The essence is similar. It doesn't matter whether these concepts are true or not. What matters is: how many people believe it. If more people believe it, it will come true.

In the end, diamond has become an extremely successful marketing case. The whole world has formed the symbolic meaning of diamonds? An imaginary community? . It didn't collapse like tulips, but formed a continuous industry.

Judging from the current trend, Bitcoin is working hard in this direction. There is a public opinion game between advocates and bears to see who has more power to influence the huge group of passers-by to agree or disagree with Bitcoin. Both sides are exaggerating, describing Bitcoin as the holy grail to change human society, while describing Bitcoin as a complete Ponzi scheme. At present, due to the continuous rise (and has doubled after many crashes), advocates have a slight advantage.