Demand side analysis: livestock and poultry breeding, feed production+household bean product consumption 1. Livestock and poultry breeding and feed production: According to the data of the Ministry of Rural Agriculture, the number of fertile sows in China increased by1.7% in February 2020; In terms of poultry breeding, with the stabilization and improvement of COVID-19 epidemic in China, chicken prices have stopped falling and rebounded, and the enthusiasm of poultry breeding is high; Domestic feed enterprises have a high recovery rate after returning to work. As the temperature gets warmer, livestock and poultry farming continues to improve, and the demand for feed is improving, which leads to the recovery of soybean meal demand. In addition, feed enterprises have heard the demand for passive large-scale orders before soybean meal rose.
2. Household consumption of bean products: such as homemade soybean milk, outsourced tofu, soybean milk powder, etc. The food we are thirsty for every day is inseparable from soybeans. In addition, these households have a large number of consumers and extensive consumption. Therefore, it will also help push up the price of imported soybeans to a certain extent.
Supply-side analysis: domestic soybean+imported soybean+domestic soybean with pneumonia epidemic: According to USDA forecast, the total soybean output in China in 2020 will be about 1, 865,438+10,000 tons. Our demand is about/kloc-0.04 million tons, and the total soybean output in 20 19 is/kloc-0.695 million tons.
Imported soybeans: According to customs statistics, China imported 88.03 million tons of soybeans in 20 18, and 910.5 million tons in 20 19, that is, more than 85% of soybean consumption was imported from the source.
3. Pneumonia epidemic: Recently, COVID-19 epidemic broke out abroad, especially in the United States (according to today's headline report, as of April 8, 387,547 people were diagnosed in the United States; A total of 1383 1 person was diagnosed in Brazil; Cumulative diagnosis in Argentina 1628 people).
4. Soybean production: According to the forecast of USDA, the soybean production in Brazil will increase to 19/2020 in 2020, and the supply is sufficient. However, the epidemic affected the shipment and export shipment delay in the main soybean producing areas. Soybean has made great contributions to animal husbandry and household bean products consumption in China, but the proportion of domestic soybean production and supply is low and the dependence on imports is high.
The trend of soybeans What we are seeing now is the favorable factors for the rise of soybean prices, including the fact that the epidemic situation is still going on, and although it is stable at home, it is still erupting internationally, which has a certain stimulating effect on the rise of international food prices. At the same time, China imports a lot of soybeans every year, but now soybean imports are really affected and cannot arrive in Hong Kong on time. However, the domestic grass-roots grain has been basically sold out, the supply is relatively tight, and there is not much grain in the hands of farmers.
These news have a certain stimulating effect on the soybean price in China, so the soybean price will continue to rise in the short term, and it is unlikely to fall sharply. Of course, for farmers, if they still have surplus grain in their hands, they should pay close attention to the changing trend of market conditions and seize the opportunity to sell it at the right time. Once the auction rules of the State Reserve are implemented, the price may directly return to a relatively stable state, and there may even be a slight correction.