I will. As raw materials for small metals such as molybdenum, tin and cobalt, the price of tin ingots rose sharply from 202 1: the price of tin ingots rose from 1.5 million yuan/ton to about 200,000 yuan/ton; Molybdenum also rose from 1.500 yuan/ton to more than 2,000 yuan/ton of 202 1. At present, although there is fine adjustment, its price has increased by 30%-40% with bulk metal raw materials, and the price of tungsten products that have been at a low level for a long time has only slightly increased by about 15%, which not only does not reflect the scarcity and inevitability of tungsten products. Based on this, we judge that tungsten products still have an average room for growth of about 10% without a sharp economic correction and the Fed's short-term interest rate policy unchanged.

Spillover effect of price increase of tungsten products

According to the experience of the past decades and the current industrial situation, it is not difficult for us to draw the following conclusions. If the price of tungsten products is too high, there may be several market spillover effects:

(1) Profitable imported ore may become a balancing factor in the domestic tungsten concentrate market, and at the same time, it will give greater incentives to domestic market participants with mining and primary smelting capabilities and technologies, and go abroad to find and mine, which will affect domestic mining and production and processing capabilities.

(2) The import and recycling of tungsten waste has become a profitable business, which has expanded the market share of recycled materials that can be produced in batches by zinc smelting, thus affecting the raw ore market of tungsten concentrate and reducing the raw material price of tungsten products.

(3) Take a tungsten-molybdenum associated mine in China as an example. If the price of tungsten products remains high, some associated mines containing scheelite and low-grade scheelite will gradually improve their mining and separation capabilities in order to gain a share in the tungsten product market.

(4) Promotion of substitute products. At present, many ceramic materials, graphene and its derivatives have replaced cemented carbide in the field of tool application. If the price of cemented carbide is gradually pushed up, it is believed that the substitution of tools will have a certain inhibitory effect on the tungsten market.

(5) A large number of stocks left by Pan-Asian Nonferrous Metals Exchange, such as APT, which have not been digested by the market, may also be put into the market due to the sharp price increase of tungsten products, which will have a great impact on market supply.