First of all, China will make it clear that once it violates China's sovereignty and territory, China will make them pay the price.

Japan, the United States, and South Korea are on the same team when fighting between North and South Korea, and China, Russia, and North Korea should also be on the same team.

But China and North Korea love peace very much.

Recently, the military conflict between South Korea and North Korea has become a hotly discussed topic. What is the driving force behind this conflict? Will armed conflict escalate into war? What impact will it have on China and Northeast Asia? What response strategy should China adopt to face this crisis?

Regarding these issues, Xiaosheng will share his superficial opinions here in order to communicate and discuss with his friends. If there is any fallacy or childishness in it, please don’t laugh at it.

Now, let’s get down to business.

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There is actually no need to say much about the motivations behind this conflict. There are no more than two reasons for the United States: First, it has been unhappy with North Korea for a long time, and second, it wants to contain China. As for North Korea, there are several theories: Mao Du is passing on the failure of currency reform, paving the way for Brother Jin to come to power, and attacking South Korea to rip off some money when it is short of money. Kogoro Mori has been wanting to get rid of the status of an economic power and a small political country since World War II. If he attacks North Korea, he might be able to get rid of the shackles of the Treaty of Versailles like Germany after World War I. This is very important to Kogoro, who has strong national self-esteem. In addition, it is more interested in fighting this war due to the Diaoyu Islands dispute with China and the four northern islands disputes with Russia.

The countries that least want a war are China and South Korea. Our Chinese dynasty has worked hard for 30 years and has shown signs of rejuvenation. What is needed most now is a peaceful and stable development environment. In another ten years, we will emerge as a superpower. Once a fight breaks out in North Korea, it will definitely have an impact on us. Once war starts, it is likely to get out of control. The results of the past 30 years have been tied up in the second Korean War, and we will definitely not do it; but if North Korea is destroyed, not only will it be pressured by NATO's westward expansion, but more directly, it will lose the bargaining chip with the US boss. The Republic of Korea does not want to go to war, as they cannot afford the losses. If Seoul (formerly Seoul) was really annihilated by artillery fire, there would be no place to cry. It is impossible for them to invent a developed Korea. As for Lao Maozi, they have shared the same interests with China for a long time and do not want to see war. In particular, I don't want to see Mouri Kogoro taking the opportunity to become bigger. But having said that, once the incident occurs, they will also gain some benefits in terms of geography, energy, and diplomatic importance. Therefore, they should pay careful attention to the situation.

So, who wants to fight this battle most? Everyone knows it is the United States because his father is Li Gang. The reason why we didn't boldly fight was because we were worried about North Korea's nuclear weapons. Losing one or two aircraft carriers or even a fleet is nothing, but if its overseas military bases or the mainland of Japan and South Korea are suddenly attacked, that is not acceptable. But if it can be confirmed that North Korea does not have nuclear weapons, it is time for the United States to take action. Eliminate the evil country in their eyes (this country is becoming more and more dangerous and more and more likely to build a nuclear bomb), and at the same time push power directly to the door of China. Especially in the context of China's rapid growth and its attempts to steal Uncle Sam's business everywhere, suppressing China's development momentum has become an important issue in order to protect jobs.

So does North Korea have nuclear weapons? I'm afraid it's hard for the United States to be sure. Although the CIA is very good, North Korea's political system makes it difficult for American intelligence personnel to detect core secrets. In this case, creating conflict is the best way to probe the truth. American think tanks will make precise judgments based on North Korea's response. Therefore, the real purpose of this joint military exercise is not to scare anyone, but to see North Korea's reality. As for China's reaction, there is no need to predict it. It will definitely not send troops. Therefore, we saw that last time Huang Haijun demonstrated that the United States did not bring in the aircraft carrier due to China's strong posture; but this time, it drove to China's doorstep without hesitation. Because the purposes of the two actions are different, China's response can be expected. It seems that this military exercise is the prelude to war. Once North Korea relents, the United States will take heavy action.

General Kim Jong Il has been fighting tenaciously against imperialism throughout his life, and he clearly understands the thoughts of American imperialism. Therefore, we wisely made the great decision to fight resolutely and never retreat, and displayed 2,000 centrifuge equipment to the outside world. Just tell the Americans: We have nuclear capabilities. Although we will definitely lose in a conventional war, you can only end up with a dead end.

This move is indeed clever, but Americans are not vegetarians, and they also want to fight this war in their hearts. Therefore, they will spy again and hold a larger-scale military exercise. But after all, they were not sure of Lao Jin's trump card, so for the sake of caution, they cleverly moved the acting sea area eastward. The scale is bigger, but the distance is farther. This is tantamount to putting a smoke bomb on North Korea: on the one hand, it makes North Korea feel that the coalition forces are preparing for a big war, and on the other hand, it can prevent North Korea from overreacting. At this time, if North Korea shows any signs of cowardice, the United States will strengthen its determination to use force. Therefore, this time everyone learned a trick from Chairman Mao to bombard Kinmen. The American nation is indeed smart, and every time they compete with their opponents, they learn something.

The great Kim Jong Il has rich experience in the anti-imperialist struggle and is naturally able to see through the intentions of the Americans. Therefore, in the next round of struggle, we will still maintain the heroic attitude of not lowering the red flag.

What should the United States do at this time?

North Korea has released so many smoke bombs that it’s hard to figure them out. Well, I can make an indirect judgment based on China's reaction. As a result, mainstream Western media began to criticize China: As the boss of North Korea, how do you discipline your brothers? They know very well that China does not want a war, let alone fight for North Korea. However, from the extent of China's restraint on North Korea, we can judge whether North Korea has nuclear weapons.

The majestic dynasty has given birth to generations of great strategists, and of course they will not be deceived by this trick. So, we told them: We are not the suzerain state of North Korea, we are just brothers with long-term friendship. We can only persuade, but cannot stop. This is also a smoke bomb. Don't try to get information from me, the United States. Based on the wisdom of our country's decision-makers, it is impossible for the United States to find out the real information through this channel. What's more, whether Brother Jin is a real guy or not, he doesn't necessarily have to tell China.

In this case, what should the United States do?

We have to look back at the fundamental reasons why the United States is provoking trouble. China is competing for jobs around the world, which has hurt the feelings of people on Wall Street. This evil trend must be stopped. Therefore, the United States has been having trouble with us in recent years. Moreover, one plan fails and another one comes up, and there are endless ghost ideas (I really admire their group of think tanks). Not to mention, the creation of disputes in South Asia in the past two years is obvious to all. However, since we have established inextricable ties with South Asian countries, this action by the United States has not achieved any actual results. However, your job must be protected. Therefore, the United States must take more powerful measures. The crisis between South Korea and North Korea was planned against this background.

The United States can do this: start a war with North Korea, but control the intensity of the war to a level that does not pose a fatal threat to the current North Korean government (or, a series of ongoing exercises is also a "soft war") . Even if North Korea does have an atomic bomb, it will not use it easily, because the result of using it will only be its own destruction. Therefore, the moment he used nuclear weapons was before the dynasty fell. This is a retaliatory action. As long as he can maintain his own survival, even if it is just a corner of peace, or even become a county magistrate after surrender, and maintain his independence in a small court, he will not use nuclear weapons. Therefore, the United States can completely launch a limited war against him. And if this happens, the harm to China will be great. If this war goes on for a few years without any pain, China's maritime trade will be greatly affected. Therefore, we have seen that the Philippines has stated that if war breaks out, it will help Japan and South Korea fight against North Korea. To put it bluntly, it means extending the blockade against China from the northern part of the first island chain to the entire eastern Pacific region. These island monkeys are smart, and Uncle Sam will foot the bill for all their losses. And China's losses don't stop there. When the war breaks out, we will definitely secretly give blood transfusions to our Korean brothers. This is a golden mountain and a silver sea! Therefore, once the war starts, China will bleed from both trade and aid wounds.

But it is different for the United States. The world economy always has to circulate, right? Investors are afraid to do business in China, so where does the money go? The United States is the biggest beneficiary. Moreover, this war is between South Korea and North Korea. North Korea does not have the ability to attack the United States mainland, and China will not confront the United States head-on. As for the cost of the war, Smecta and Kogoro will reimburse them, one out of necessity and the other out of "national justice" (after all, Japan has thousands of years of oriental culture, and it still retained the Bushido spirit until World War II. This thinking mode determines Their thinking will not be purely materialistic, and it is worthwhile to pay for the "Dahe ZTE". What's more, from the perspective of practical interests, the war may also help it get rid of the shackles it has held for decades). Moreover, the arms industry, the pillar industry of the United States, will also receive a large number of orders. Therefore, if a war breaks out, the United States will definitely make another fortune as long as it does not use nuclear weapons.

At this time, the Russians' position became delicate. His importance will grow in terms of both the geopolitical landscape and the economy and energy pipelines. However, he also does not want North Korea to perish. Otherwise, he will be squeezed by the East and the West, and he will lose a bargaining chip. Therefore, he is also likely to want to see this low-intensity war continue. The premise is to keep North Korea.

By this time, we can already see clearly: the United States and Japan really want to fight, China, South Korea and North Korea really don’t want to fight, and Russia is watching the development of the situation and feels when it will jump on the scale. Therefore, this conflict between South Korea and North Korea is very likely to evolve into a protracted local limited war. The decisive factor is whether the United States can confirm that North Korea possesses nuclear weapons.

For China, the best policy is of course to avoid war. Therefore, our first goal is to prevent the United States from knowing whether North Korea has nuclear weapons. Second, it is to prevent the United States from knowing under what conditions North Korea will use nuclear weapons.

The second point is actually more important than the first point. Because it has been analyzed before that even if North Korea has nuclear weapons, it will only use them on the eve of its demise. Then, the United States may adopt this strategy: Even if North Korea has nuclear weapons, as long as it controls the extent of the war, it can effectively weaken China without suffering losses. If he really did this, we would be more depressed because there is no father named Li Gang in China.

Therefore, in order to restrain the United States from this style of play, we must make it difficult for Americans to figure out the bottom line of North Korea's use of nuclear weapons. Although we just said that this bottom line is very clear, the strong and the weak have different standards for judging the situation. It is very likely that the United States believes that it does not threaten the Kim family's right to exist, but North Korea already feels that it is in danger. As long as this bottom line is blurred, Americans will not dare to take risks. Therefore, we should put more smoke bombs on this second question, which will also make the first question (whether North Korea has nuclear weapons) more ambiguous.

Of course, the United States also has ways to control the war to a limited extent. If nothing happens, just give North Korea two shots. It’s okay to take a break from playing.

So, what should China do at this time? Obviously, if the North Korean brothers are allowed to make things bigger, they should be kept within a limited scope. At this time, South Korea could no longer bear it. They will come forward to negotiate with the leading brother.

However, this is just defensive. Smecta may not be able to control Sam. Therefore, China must find the weakness of the United States and encircle Wei to save Zhao. Using the U.S. political system to make his hawks unable to withstand domestic pressure. Starting from the perspectives of economy, diplomacy, public sentiment propaganda, etc., the possible Korean War will be seen by voters as another Vietnam War, exerting influence on different forces in the United States, and ultimately defusing his offensive from within the United States. Of course, this is what meat-eaters do.

We are ordinary people, we can only sit back and watch the storm. Rich people should go short in the futures market. We poor people are just waiting to drink from the northwest wind.