In fact, it is not easy to go back to the countryside. Although the price of grain has risen, the price of chemical fertilizer has risen, the cost of labor has increased, and the price of rental machinery has risen, which has also limited the income from farming.
The good news is that this situation has changed. As the oil price drops, so does the price of urea. More importantly, farmers are expected to get two subsidies in July, one of which is directly punched. Let's look at the specific situation.
International oil prices have fallen sharply.
June 17 The futures prices of light crude oil for July delivery and Brent crude oil for August delivery in the New York Mercantile Exchange decreased by 6.83% and 5.58% respectively.
In June 18, the change rate of comprehensive crude oil decreased to -0.2 1%.
The main reason for the decline in international oil prices is that the economic recession caused by interest rate hikes by many central banks has put pressure on oil prices. In addition, the United States released its crude oil reserves and increased taxes on oil giants, which is also one of its wishes to reduce the international crude oil price.
Although, at present, the decline of crude oil is about 15 yuan/ton, which does not meet the standard of 50 yuan/ton decline. If the domestic oil price is adjusted at this time, it will fall instead of rising, but it is only three working days after the current oil price adjustment cycle. According to the current situation, it is entirely possible to reduce 35 yuan/ton in the next seven working days.
At present, the domestic price of No.92 gasoline is maintained around 9.3 yuan, and the price of No.95 gasoline is maintained around 9.8 yuan, which makes car owners feel pressure. Some car owners said, "There are more than 20 people in the factory, only one person drives to work, and others ride electric cars instead of walking, even for more than 40 minutes.
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Urea also ushered in a sharp price cut.
It is reported that the price of nitrogen in most parts of the world and products plummeted this week. The price of small particles in Brazil has been lowered by nearly 100 USD a ton, the FOB ports of large particles in the Baltic Sea have been lowered by 90-1/kloc-0 USD a ton, and the ex-factory price of urea in mainstream areas in China has also been lowered by 80-/kloc-0 USD a ton.
According to the analysis of insiders, on the one hand, the decline in domestic urea prices is due to the international urea price reduction, and negative emotions are transmitted to China. On the other hand, domestic urea demand entered a gap period, domestic urea daily output continued to run at a high level, urea supply and demand reversed, and the downward mode was started.
At present, the ex-factory price of small and medium-sized particles in Shandong is 3 100-3 120 yuan/ton, in Henan it is 3080-3 120 yuan/ton, in Anhui it is 3220-3320 yuan/ton, and in Shaanxi it is 3 120-3240 yuan.
Judging from the current market situation, the urea market presents a bullish negative situation: 1, agricultural demand weakens, 2, pessimism dominates, dealers and enterprises stop hoarding goods, 3, international urea prices continue to fall, and 4, urea production runs at a high level.
It is expected that the subsequent urea price will continue to fall.
In July, farmers are expected to receive "two subsidies"
Due to the increase of breeding cost, the increase of food price has not brought higher economic income to farmers. If the state can give farmers subsidies in time, the situation will be completely different.
The good news is that farmers are expected to receive two subsidies in July.
The first subsidy is food subsidy. Under normal circumstances, food subsidies are distributed one after another in July. However, due to the different economic conditions in different places, some areas are high and some areas are low, so the amount of food subsidies is different.
For example, Longquan City, Lishui City, Zhejiang Province stipulates that if rice and wheat are planted for more than 50 mu, 200 yuan will be subsidized per mu, and if they are planted for 30-50 mu, the subsidy will be 150 yuan per mu, and if they are less than 30 mu, there will be no subsidy.
Sanmen County has a higher subsidy, planting more than 50 mu of rice and wheat, and each mu can receive subsidies from 320 yuan.
Comparatively speaking, the grain supplement in Wulanhaote, Inner Mongolia is more close to the people, and there is no limitation on planting area. 320 yuan/mu for soybean planting, 30 yuan/mu for rape planting and 150 yuan/mu for potato planting.
As the time for granting grain subsidies approaches, more and more regions will introduce specific grain subsidy implementation plans, and the author will continue to follow up and share the first-hand subsidy amount update with farmers.
The second subsidy is agricultural production disaster relief funds.
In response to the increase in fertilizer prices, in March and May this year, the state issued a one-time subsidy totaling 30 billion yuan twice to reduce the burden on farmers caused by the increase in fertilizer prices.
Farmers should not only bear all kinds of costs, but also bear the high risks brought by natural disasters. Although science and technology are developed now, and disasters such as drought, flood and locusts can be alleviated to some extent, the nature of agriculture relying on the sky for food has not changed. The rainy weather in the south and the high temperature and drought in the north have had a certain impact on agricultural production. According to experts' prediction, the rainfall in China this summer will be higher than that in the same period last year, and the number of typhoons will also increase, which will have a great impact on farmers' farming income.
However, this 673 million yuan belongs to a special fund, and not every farmer can receive it. It is mainly used to support 25 provinces such as Heilongjiang, Jilin, Guangdong, Guangxi and Hunan to purchase pesticides and medical devices needed to prevent and control pests and diseases of major crops such as rice, corn pests and red imported fire ants, prevent the spread of pests and diseases, and provide strong support for ensuring a bumper harvest of autumn crops.