On the 22nd local time, German Chancellor Angela Scholz said at a press conference that she might consider extending the life of the above three nuclear power plants. The Minister of Economy has calculated the scenarios, including the worst-case scenario and so on. Let's have a look.
On the 22nd, Beixi No.1 natural gas pipeline resumed gas supply, but it did not run at full capacity. At present, the recovery flow is 40% of that at full load. Although the recent worries of European countries, including Germany, have been solved, the far worries are still there.
In this case, Germany has also announced a new energy security plan, that is, the gas storage capacity of German natural gas storage facilities should reach 75% before September 1 and 95% before September 1 1.
SabineNallinger, managing director of StiftungKlimaWirtschaft, told China Business News that rising energy prices will definitely bring great pressure to any industry, and will also severely hit private households, thus reducing demand. The key now is to avoid a real energy shortage.
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Since taking office, Schultz has said no to extending the operation of the last three nuclear power plants in Germany. On the 22nd, it was the first time that Schultz relaxed his position on this issue. At a hearing of the German Federal Parliament on July 7th, he also made it clear that he refused.
In an interview with German media in June, Scholz carefully explained his view that it is difficult to extend the operation of these nuclear power plants from a practical point of view, because the maintenance plan of nuclear power plants has been accurately adjusted according to the closure at the end of 2022, and at the same time, it takes a long time to obtain new nuclear fuel rods, at least 12- 18 months.
Kai middotKaiNeuber, an analyst at a new energy consulting agency in Germany, also told the First Financial Reporter that in his view, restarting nuclear power may not be a better choice. First of all, natural gas is mainly used for heating, but nuclear energy is not really used for heating. Second, Germany lacks enough nuclear fuel rods. Third, security issues. In order to use nuclear power facilities for a longer period of time, it is necessary to carry out major safety inspection and maintenance work, which is said to take one year.
To this end, Scholz also expressed its full support for phasing out nuclear energy in June.
However, the current energy situation has changed the view in Germany. Although the Green Party has been pushing for stopping the use of nuclear energy, in the current crisis, the more pro-business Liberal Democratic Party strongly advocates expanding the use of nuclear energy, believing that this will reduce the demand for using natural gas power plants for energy production, thus helping to curb Germany's overall dependence on Russian natural gas.
At present, German Minister of Economy Chabeck has instructed energy suppliers to conduct stress tests on the German power grid to determine whether the power supply can be guaranteed this winter even if the power supply in Russia is cut off. The stress test will be conducted in a more rigorous hypothetical scenario than the pre-spring test and will be completed in the next few weeks.
Previously, the German Ministry of Environment and the Ministry of Economic Affairs jointly conducted an assessment in March this year, and then suggested not to extend the operation period of existing nuclear power plants, for reasons including legal authority, safety inspection fees and the lack of fuel rods needed for reactor operation.
Regarding the recent trend, Shi Shiwei, a visiting professor at the Free University of Berlin, Germany, told the First Financial Reporter that this reflected the partisan struggle within the German government.
It is worth mentioning that the Green Party has also begun to consider the possibility of extending the operation time of nuclear power plants. Ricadat middot Lang, the new chairman of the Green Party, said that if there is a natural gas shortage in Germany next winter, all measures will be put on the table again. Ricadat Lang, co-leader of the Green Party, told public broadcaster ARD.
JensSpahn, vice chairman of CDU, said that one possibility is to solve several different problems through national compromise. For example, if the Green Party agrees to expand nuclear energy, the Liberal Democrats may once again oppose the speed limit of highways. If the Green Party can accept such a compromise, then we should also be able to discuss the speed limit. Span said.
65438+1 October1restart lignite power generation.
The new energy security plan announced by the German government recently shows that Germany will restart lignite power generation from 10 to replace the current natural gas power generation, and coal and oil will be given priority in railway transportation.
Chabeck said that we need lasting strength, which is not only related to the coming winter, but also closely related to the next winter.
The German government continues to say that it hopes to basically get rid of its dependence on Russian natural gas before the summer of 2024.
As of July 22nd, the benchmark Dutch TTF natural gas futures price was reported as 16 1. 150 Euro /MWh.
KaiNeuber told the First Financial Reporter that in the scenario construction, if Russia cuts off the gas supply to Germany, the price of natural gas will rise, which will inevitably have an adverse impact on industrial energy consumption (heating and power supply) and household energy consumption (heating and power supply).
The grim reality is that because we may not be able to replace all the missing natural gas, we will have to ensure energy supply in some way. At present, we want to restart some coal-fired power plants and build LNG terminals,' he said. Although it will take time and we need to find the supply sources of coal and liquefied natural gas (LNG), in my opinion, this is the best solution for the suppliers at present.
Pitel, director of the Center for Energy, Climate and Resources of Ifo Economic Research Institute in Germany, said in an interview with China Business News that at present, especially the prices of natural gas and electricity are very high, which will inevitably damage the competitiveness of German industry. Some companies may pass on higher energy prices to customers, but for others, this may not be possible, or it may only be within a limited range.
Whether individual enterprises will be forced to stop production if Russia stops supply for a long time will depend on how much the overall natural gas demand can be reduced in a relatively short period of time. She said.